Stop Trying to Time the Market!
Why does everyone try to time the market perfectly? What's so wrong with taking wins - especially big ones - when they present themselves? No one who has sold Wemby over the last two weeks should be upset if someone else tops their sale.
Video Transcript
Can I go ahead and give the first piece of advice everyone should listen to?
Sure.
Don't listen to any advice that we give, 'cause you said sell Wemby and he's gone nowhere but up, except for- He has not, but I have Wemby's pricing actually, he has, he has recalibrated over the last couple weeks- He's still Yeah, correct but he is still up from before.
Z- My Hang on But Brunson from last Thursday?
My eBay price No, no, no, no, you don't get to say crap and then r- No My eBay price on Wemby was 3726 after fees.
That's what it would have sold for.
There've been a handful of sales.
Wait, what?
I sold mine for 33 cash.
Okay.
So if we're gonna go eBay comp to eBay comp, I sold mine two weeks ago for more than you could clear if you sold it today on eBay.
Yeah, but that doesn't, that You are selling it live, I'm assuming.
That's where you- No, I sold I made a private deal.
So that doesn't- But let's just say I went to eBay with it I'm saying on average, the average consumer, the listener, what they could have done based on current comps.
That's what I That's why I did it, though.
Based on current comps, you can sell it for 3,700.
37 after 13% is less than what I made on mine.
30- Apples to apples, I made more money on my card two weeks ago than people make now.
Okay.
And by the way, I made that risk-free.
He almost lost to OKC.
I still don't understand how- He- you got it 3,700 to begin with because it ha- he was not, like, Card Leider does not show Actually, which card are we talking about?
The silver, like a Wemby- It is the silver?
Yeah.
Okay.
So yeah, there, it doesn't show that card being at 3,700 until May 31st.
I mean, it was three today at 3,500.
You could buy it online right now.
Yeah.
There's $3,600 buy it nows right now, too.
I, I'm just saying, I don't understand how you sold it back then for 30- For 30 Again, I'm saying- 33.
I see.
Yeah I, right.
So I'm saying but the eBay comp But that's what I mean, like, there's this notion that, like, Wemby stuff has gone It has not.
Well, I- And if, and if they continue to play like this, it's not going to I would argue that Wemby at this point, if they win a game, he will probably rebound a little bit.
Maybe.
Like, that pricing, the fact that he's already gone up over four, almost 4,100 at one point.
I mean, a couple, but again, you've also got $3,400 sales in the last seven days.
So, like, this notion that he's just up is not true.
He has a couple that have done really well.
He's got others that have been the same as they were two weeks ago.
The point I had, though, was guaranteed money.
When I sold it, that is the guarantee.
You've made the money, there's no question.
Okay.
Where guys who held it from now, you had to, A, bank on them coming back down 3-2 ago- against OKC.
That is a risk.
Sure.
You have to, you have to re- you're risking that he is going to stay healthy.
Yeah, but you- Again, and you have- It's a risk, and you can make all the arguments you want.
You were still wrong- I'm not wrong as far as this case goes.
Yes, you were, because you couldn't do what you did.
Everybody who's listening couldn't do what you did as far as sell it at 33.
Sure they could have.
They were doing that at the time.
You could have gone to eBay that day and done it.
Well, they did it on eBay, then your point would be they sold it at, like, what, 3,000 after fees?
They would have They were about 3,500 at the time.
They've gone up about $200 on average.
The- That's a lot of risk for no, for little profit.
That was my point at the time.
Okay.
I told you that, too.
They were gonna go up.
I, I knew they were gonna go up some if the, if everything played out correctly.
Mm-hmm.
But why am I risking it all goes correctly to make an extra $300 on a $3,500 card?
So- Take your freaking wins.
So many guys do this, where it's like, "No, I'm gonna hold."
Yeah.
And look what happens.
I mean, it's, it, it's exactly the thought of, yes, you played a smarter play, but the riskier play that would have paid off a little bit more was if you had kept it and sold- It hasn't paid off yet, though.
Well, I mean, at this point, you are, what, ba- basically even to the point when- Correct we talked about it last.
Right.
If you had sold, what, after they won to OKC, yes, you definitely would have made money.
There were four sales over four, sure.
But I also, my other point there is everybody thinks, "Oh, I'm also gonna match the high."
If, if there were 20 other comps at the time- Mm-hmm they're not all holding value at 4,100 bucks.
Probably not.
I guarantee that.
So that's my other thing.
The other thought, too, of let's say he goes on this crazy run and they win it somehow.
Mm-hmm.
Will his pricing go up?
No doubt.
But the other risk there is how many guys are then cashing out of Wemby stuff that's this level?
Probably- And the amount of irrational people, too, by the way, giving me crap about this.
Wemby's an all-time great.
Wemby's won a Defensive Player of the Year.
That is all he has accomplished so far in his career, folks.
I think he will be great as well.
He's tall.
Yeah, I think he's probably gonna be, go on to be unbelievable.
But you know how many other people have had unbelievable peaks in their career?
Sure.
Four years ago, Luka was the greatest player ever.
We're taking him over Larry Bird, and no one's ever gonna do anything like Luka's done.
Zion's still coming back, baby.
Yeah, but Zion never actually did it.
Luka, Wemby's had done a full season that's been unbelievable.
Mm-hmm.
Second in MVP.
Luka has had years like that.
Where's Luka?
And anybody else, in a rush to By the way, just to be clear, Luka's PSA 10 silvers right now doing about $1,500.
Those were $10,000 cards back in the day.
Yeah, but that's still, you, Luka's silver is still much higher than your average NBA player.
Well, he's much better than your aver- But- He just came in fourth in MVP voting, of course he is.
Exactly, but that's what I mean.
Like, he is still selling at a premium compared to the rest of the league, and- But I'm not comparing Wemby to the rest of the league.
I'm comparing Wemby to Wemby.
I'm comparing the hype and the perception of Wemby to the reality.
Okay.
I'm comparing Luka to what we hyped him up at, 10,000.
It's now lost 80% of its money.
Sure.
He is not where he was.
Anthony Edwards peaked at 1,500.
Those are now 800.
The only exception to this rule, by the way, is Jalen Brunson.
You talked about Jalen Brunson on Monday.
Again, you quoted his, his base price.
His silver price, though, you were talking about the silver card.
Oh, I quoted base and said, "Oh, I shouldn't say that."
Yeah, because you were like, "400 bucks."
I was like, "That is absolutely not correct."
Gotcha, gotcha.
Jalen Brunson cards, as of the 6th, 7th, 8th, they have gone from 12 to 1,500 to now you're talking all over $2,000.
When we, when I talked about it on Thursday, that card was $1,250.
Right, but you quoted 400.
I know, I know.
I'm just saying- Okay, yeah right now, for perspective- That's what I mean, it's- it went from 1,250 on Thursday to- It's doubled yeah.
Almost doubled.
It's 2,200.
Now, now, so, so same argument, by the way.
I would sell Jalen Brunson right now.
What, but that's what's so crazy, is I fully believed it with, like, every fiber in my being, you sell right now- Yeah and you're gonna be just fine.
And you would have been.
You, I mean, what?
You would have made money.
Would have killed it.
And the same point is valid, I think, here.
But if you hadn't listened, you would still, you'd be making much more money at this point.
On who?
On Jalen Brunson.
I'm saying sell right now.
You cannot guarantee- Sure it's gonna be much more money if you sell later.
I, I'm, I'm saying what I had said, it doesn't matter.
Cont- continue, you're fine.
Yeah, I just, again, this is the slippery slope.
And then guys are like, "Oh, I can't ever make money on cards."
Yeah, because too many people hold out where I'm gonna, A, I'm going to be able to sell it- Yeah and B, you're gonna sell it the right time.
I agree.
I think there is- Take your wins.
Now- too many people who do not take the money while they can.
Yeah.
Now, I'm not saying sell Wemby silvers when they peaked a month ago before the playoffs, 'cause A, he had a great season, just wanted to No, but I'm saying look at what he's done now.
Mm-hmm.
Now I would sell.
And by the way, if you have some unbelievable cards of these guys, "I'm, I'm never selling them no matter what.
You're stupid.
Why would I ever sell it?
I'm giving this to my kid in 20 years," don't ever sell it, period.
I'm fine with that.
These are not rare cards.
Okay.
Yeah.
That's the difference.
Sure.
Like, I just And if you d- if more people did that, I just think you'd have more people in this hobby who'd be much happier with the liquidity they've made.
The argument about rare cards, though, I think you do have to put in perspective, like, the Jalen Brunson, there's only, there's less than 650 of them.
Sure.
So, I mean, like, there's- 2018, major turning point there's not- That's the last year before Zion, where you had By the way, that 2018 class now is unbelievable.
Oh, yeah.
Luka, Shai, and, and, Brunson.
Wait, Shai was 18, 19?
Correct.
Okay.
Um- Yeah, 19 was Zi- '19's now going down as one of the worst of all time.
Zion, Ja Morant, your boy Tyler Herro- Oh was selling for an un- outrageous amount.
Can I ask where is my boy?
Coby White, Coby with a C. Uh- Had a, had a moment where he was selling through the roof.
Not- I do remember that from the Bulls.
Oh, dude, so many guys.
Um- Yeah, 2019 has tanked, and 2018 is unbelievable now.
