Are the Tampa Bay Rays the Team to Beat in the AL?
The Tampa Bay Rays have excelled at Tropicana Field but have struggled on the road. Securing home-field advantage is key for postseason success this season.
Video Transcript
So the Tampa Bay Rays to me are the team to beat in the American League.
But are they the team to beat, Tom, if they gotta go on the road in the postseason?
They better win that American League East, that's all I gotta say.
Yeah.
Because they're phenomenal at the Trop.
But they leave the Trop and they don't win.
Now, they ran into Boston, they're the hottest team in the league.
They got swept.
And I understand that tonight you got Dylan Cease, the Cy Young favorite of the American League is on the mound.
That's why you see minus 164 there.
But Nick Martinez is good too for Tampa Bay.
I guess, Tom, my concern is the Rays on the road.
Have they just built themselves- a squad that plays very well, and I was there this year watching games too.
They really seem to have things down at Tropicana Field to a T, one of the very best records, I think maybe the, the most wins, if I'm not mistaken- Sure in the American League at Tropicana Field.
But, once they leave the Trop, it seems like things go south a little bit.
So I guess they're hoping, and Kevin Cash is hoping, that they at the, at the worst, if I'm not mistaken, if they clinch that first wild card, then they would host the first three games at the Trop, then they'd have to go on the road there.
But anything worse than that, Tom, they I, I would think that they're in some trouble.
That would a- appear to be how things are unfolding right now.
And what's most concerning to me, at least based on this Boston series, which is a four-game sample size coming out of the All-Star break against a red-hot Red Sox team, you know, gotta put some caveats in here.
But the pitching staff is not what I expected it to be.
You know, that was, to me, has always been one of the strengths of the Rays, that they can win high scoring, they can win low scoring, but they have now have a combination of their pitching staff is bad, and they didn't get the offense going.
They scored one run in one of the games, they scored zero runs in another game.
Now, granted they scored nine runs between the other two games, but being held to zero and one run in two of the games while having bad pitching just is not the Rays formula.
It's not the Rays formula, at least on the road.
So I have a very, very tough time going back to them.
I'd be willing to lay off them this entire series and just wait till they get back home and then go right back to betting the Rays at, you know, the, the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, so to speak.
Yeah.
For, for them, they seem to have, things down there.
But as Tom mentioned, the reason why the Rays are in the spot this week is because of how hot Boston has played, and I don't know that that's gonna change, although this is two hot teams facing off with one another.
All of a sudden tonight, you look at the Baltimore Orioles, Shane Baz and company, boy, they, they seem like they got right too, Tom.
They put themselves at least back in the conversation.
We thought absolute sellers maybe a week ago.
I think they've won seven in a row.
Is that correct?
Seven wins in a row for them, 13 wins in a row- Yeah for the Boston Red Sox.
So d- two of the longest winning streaks of the Major League season.
Peyton Tully, he's been great, and he pitches for the Red Sox.
I mentioned Baz for Baltimore.
But that place is gonna be rocking.
You know, everyone is showing up at Fenway now.
That, not that they don't before, but this is, like, a historic run that they're on here.
This, this is, as they say, the trend is my friend.
I, I can't go against Boston right now while they're playing like this, Tom.
I, I know it's gonna end and the shoe will drop, so to speak, they'll start losing, but I, I don't know that it is tonight.
So I, I'm not betting against the Red Sox.
I'm not betting on the Orioles.
But I do like Peyton Tully under six and a half strikeouts.
You know, a little bit of juice at minus 150.
His strikeout rate is solid this year at 25.5%, but you look over this last 10 game sample size from him, and it is, varied wildly.
Some games up at, you know, 33, 34, up at 46% in the most recent start, which was a short outing.
But he has other outings, Craig, where we're looking at 8, 10, 12% strikeout rate.
And because it's beautiful hitting weather in Fenway Park, which is already a great hitters park to begin with, he's going up against a red-hot Orioles team.
I'm not sure if the strikeouts are gonna be there tonight.
I could see him getting to four, getting to five, maybe even getting to six.
He gives up a couple runs along the way, but the, I think the pitch count could be an issue for him tonight.
I don't see him pushing his 7, 8, 9 strikeouts tonight against this Orioles lineup, which granted, is not amazing, but they're hot right now.
Do, do you sort of buy Baltimore being back in it here, Tom?
I, I, I had the same feeling a little bit that I did with Boston.
I, I still don't know that the Orioles have enough pitching.
Are they just on a good run, or- Yeah.
Let, let's just call their number 81 wins at the end of the year.
You think they can hit that?
Maybe, but I, I think this is a little bit smoke and mirrors.
They beat the Royals and then they beat the Astros to get on this win streak.
Like, they, they lost a series versus the Cubs.
They took the last game versus the Cubs.
They swept the Royals, congrats, and then they beat the Astros, a team that you and I both think are not good.
So it's like they're winning games, but are they, again, it's the best quality opponent?
No.
