The TRUTH on what to expect from A.J. Brown from Eagles insider Jeff McLane
The TRUTH on what to expect from A.J. Brown from Eagles insider Jeff McLane originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Video Transcript
What's up everybody?
Welcome in to the Next Pats Podcast.
I'm Phil Perry.
Fantastic episode for you this week, because we're talking to the great Jeff McLane from the Philly Inquirer.
Nobody better when it comes to covering this Eagles team.
He's done it for a long time, is as plugged in as anyone, so we get great insight in terms of why this AJ Brown happened the way it happened, why the compensation was what it was, how that got worked out, and how both sides might have ended up meeting in the middle based on some astronomical asks on Philly's side, and the Patriots back at the combine, according to Jeff, having an interesting value placed on AJ Brown themselves.
We're also gonna talk about where AJ Brown is at his best right now at almost 29 years old, and obviously dealing with a knee issue.
So we're gonna hear from Jeff, as somebody who has watched him very, very closely for a number of years now in Philadelphia, why he is the way he is, and how it'll look now that he's here in New England.
I also wanna get to some sound that we have from Josh McDaniels in terms of how they'll be able to use AJ Brown in this offense, and what the plan is for him, what we're hearing on what the plan will be for AJ Brown in terms of getting him acclimated into this Patriots scheme.
We're also gonna take a couple of mailbag questions, so it's a loaded, loaded episode, but let's get right to our conversation with Jeff McLane and hear more about AJ Brown and how he'll fit in New England.
There he is, Jeff McLane, Philly Inquirer.
Jeff, thanks so much for being with us.
It's great to have you with us because obviously there's been a lot of interaction between Boston and Philadelphia with this whole AJ Brown saga, but nobody has covered it better from the Philly end of things than you.
Wanna ask you first, now that he's gone, what can we say is the reason that he was even available?
'Cause obviously, you got a lot of people in New England that are excited to have this guy, so who do they have to thank here, Jeff, when it comes to AJ Brown's availability?
Well, I mean, I think it's, number one, it's AJ Brown kind of was pushing for this.
You know, he has come out and said it now, and, and so has Howie Roseman, Eagles GM, that, you know, after having conversations with AJ, he felt that he wanted a fresh start and, and wanted an opportunity to play elsewhere.
I mean, it's kind of been building up towards this for, for the last few years, very much so last year.
I think at times AJ became a distraction.
He clearly wasn't happy in this, in this offense and playing with, I think, you know, it's fair to say Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
And, and he's talked before about legacy and Hall of Fame, and I think he thinks that that, that is preventing him from accomplishing, those, you know, those goals.
And I think so that was part of it.
And I think also, you know, when you look at Howie Roseman and the Eagles and where they stand in terms of their salary cap, in term- in terms of getting some cash relief in the future, they're gonna save $133 million, by unloading AJ's contract.
That'll allow them to sign, sign a lot of their young players.
And, and I think there's also this element of, like, okay, you know, last year AJ was clearly not the AJ that we're accustomed to.
You know, there's been talk about the obviously degenerative knees that he has.
You know, is this a guy that's on the down slope of his, of his career?
And the Eagles Are the Eagles getting ahead of, you know, of, of that decline?
And of course, the number one thing, I think the reason why the, you know, that the Eagles did this, they wouldn't have done it otherwise, was getting a first-round pick in return.
When you look at the, the relationship with Jalen Hurts, I think that, that is, It's pertinent for those of us following it now o- on this end of things, because it seemed like the relationship was so good a- at one point, and obviously they, they win a Super Bowl with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
And, and I think people here in New England look at Drake May, and he's runner-up for MVP, and they see, you know, nothing but great things for him in his future.
And I think they're probably right in feeling that way right now.
But for it to have deteriorated the way it did in Philadelphia, i- is there any potential for something similar to happen here in New England?
Because it does feel like that was kind of, you know, i- if not the primary factor, well, you know, one of the driving factors as to why he's no longer a Philadelphia Eagle.
So I, I wonder if people should be just a- at all, tentative when it comes to just observing this quarterback-receiver dynamic moving forward here.
Yeah.
Well, so I mean, that's a, an interesting, relationship, because these are guys that have known each other since they were 18 years old.
They were friends.
You know, AJ had tried Excuse me.
Jalen Hurts had tried to recruit AJ Brown to go to Alabama, came down to Mississippi, Starkville, Mississippi.
They worked out.
They became friends, from that point forward.
You know, Jalen Hurts was the, the godfather to, to AJ Brown's daughter.
and then Jalen, you know, went out and kind of was part of the recruitment when the Eagles did trade for him f- with the Titans in 2022.
Now, I think some of the whole friendship thing was a little bit overblown, like they're best friends.
I think they were friends.
They were good friends.
but I think, you know, you put the, you put a quarterback and a receiver who are friends on the same team, and they're so reliant on each other, you know, it can, it can cause, issues, and I think that was part of it.
yeah, they're, they're both very much different people.
AJ, is very outgoing.
he's extroverted, to some degree.
Sometimes he isn't.
But he's definitely much more of a guy that likes to kind of, like, put his Wears, wears his emotions on his sleeve, and Jalen Hurts is almost the direct opposite of that.
I mean, he's a stoic.
you know, he carries himself a certain way, takes pride in being kind of like a, you know, an old-school type of, of person, an old-school type of, quarterback.
And I think, you know, those kind of came in conflict at some point.
But I, I think really it's more so about just, like, what happens on the field as opposed to what's happens off the field.
Certainly that played a part of it, and I think there were c- there were communication issues there at times.
Um-It's tough to say who was more at fault there.
you know, when you, when you look at, Drake May and what may happen in New England, I mean, from everything I understand, this is, this is a kid that, you know, is outwardly, very good to deal with in terms of your receivers, everybody in the locker room.
He's still young, obviously.
but I, I, I don't think this kind of characterization of A.J.
Brown as a diva i- is necessarily fair, fair, fair.
He was well-liked in the locker room.
He did bring a lot of leadership quali- qualities to, to the Eagles, and, and I think that'll carry over, and of course certainly in the first year or so, you're gonna get a, an A.J.
on his best behavior in light of what happened in Philadelphia.
A- and if he is on his best behavior, and, and listen, it, it's, it's like the honeymoon period of all honeymoon periods right now.
He's at the podium earlier this week talking about how this is, this isn't Heaven, but it's close.
You know, it's like o- it's over the top.
We know he was a Patriots fan growing up, so he's obviously really happy to be here right now.
If this works on the field as well as the Patriots are hoping it will, Jeff, what kind of player is A.J.
Brown?
Where is he at his best for, from somebody who has watched him as closely as you have, especially at this point in his career?
29, you mentioned the knee.
how does he win at this stage of his career?
Yeah, I, I don't think you'll probably get A.J.
at his best, and, you know, th- that isn't abnormal for someone who's, you know, about to turn 29. someone, I think of his physique.
This is I mean, I've never seen a receiver built, the way that he is.
I mean, he is a massive, you know, human being, and that is, you know, a lot of times the secret to hi- to his success is that, you know, he can just bully guys at the line of scrimmage, and, and certainly in 50/50 jump ball situations.
I mean, that's kind of been A.J.
's bread and butter.
And of course after the catch when he gets the ball, it's very hard to bring him down.
Now, we didn't see as much of that last year, and, you know, there were a lot of reasons for the regression of A.J.
Brown a- and that offense overall, new offensive coordinator.
I think Jalen Hurts was struggling, because, defenses were putting much more of a focus on him after the success of, Saquon Barkley in the run game in that Super Bowl winning season for the Eagles.
So, you know, that was part of it, but I, I do think there is some truth to this kind of like where A.J.
is losing, I wouldn't say a step, maybe not even a half step, but I would say maybe a smidgen of a step in terms of his explosiveness.
He was never a big separation guy, but it became harder, I think, for him to get separation.
Now, there's also a question of like, I mean, he- these were uncharacteristic things that we saw of him last year in terms of drops, you know, effort on routes, in, in run blocking.
Now, that could've been just all- everything else that was going off, going on off the field in terms of his mental- his, you know, his mentals as he likes to call them, and, and A.J.
's been very open and upfront about the struggles that he's had with his mental health.
I think he has gotten in a better place in the stage of his career.
He just got married.
he has, you know, kids.
He's, he's building a family.
but, you know, when it comes to A.J.
on the field, you know, I, I think there's still a quality player, left in that body, and I think that, you know, and I think you can get two good years out of him, and I think that's basically probably n- not all that New England is hoping for, but I think that's what they're banking on.
You know, I asked Jes- Josh McDaniels, Jeff, the other day, you know, if there's pressure on him, and they dealt with this a little bit last year with Stefon Diggs.
You know, new to the team, new to the offense, but somebody who has, you know, over the course of his career been very open about how he wants the football, and he's super competitive guy.
This is Diggs now.
And so there, you know, there was sort of this storyline throughout the early portion of the season at least, you know, how often are they gonna have to force feed this guy to make sure that he's on board and, and focused and, you know, where you want him mentally?
you know, not even just from an, you know, a production standpoint.
Is there anything similar there with A.J.
Brown?
I know la- and maybe last year's a little different because, you know, things had kind of reached a boiling point.
But is he the kind of player where you're gonna have to get him a certain number of targets to make sure, you know, whatever version he is of himself right now, you're, you're maximizing that?
Yeah, but I think it makes sense to give, to give the ball to A.J.
Brown, you know, and getting in, get it into his hands early.
And, you know, we- there were games and stretches last year where it was just kind of mind-boggling how they weren't getting him the ball, but it would go to one extreme, and then the next week they would force it to him, and then that created issues, I think, for the offense.
Now, the wa- you know, one of the games he missed in the middle of the year was against the Giants, and the Eagles were really able to run the ball.
It was probably the best they ran the ball all last year, and everyone's like, "Okay, you know, no A.J.
Is that why it happened?"
A- and I don't think that's entirely fair to A.J., but I think there's a little bit of a kernel of truth i- in, in that, in that, you know, w- when A.J.
made himself unhappy, made it very clear that he was unhappy, I think the Eagles sometimes forced the ball to him too much.
Now, th- that's gonna be on Mike Vrabel, on Josh McDaniels, and Drake May, in terms of how they kind of like keep him happy, in terms of how many times you feed him.
But I get back to what I said at the top.
I mean, this is still, I think, a quality receiver.
Is he top five anymore?
Probably not.
Is he top 10?
I, I'm not so sure about that.
But top 20 is still a pretty good q- wide receiver in the NFL, and I think A.J.
certainly has a lot to prove as, as well and, and, you know, I, I think he's the type of guy w- that will be motivated, after everything that has happened.
Jeff, one of the, one of the reasons it's great to have you, you're obviously so plugged in with everybody in that Eagles organization.
I, I'm curious about the compensation, and it, it's been a, it's been a good conversation here in New England, you know, a- and Tommy Curran and I have, have, you know, butted heads on this a little bit.
I don't think it's a crazy overpay by the Patriots to give away a first-round pick, especially because you wanna maximize what you have in Drake May, and he's on that rookie contract.
And so add some salary now, get as much talent as you can around this guy, try to change your offense.
This is the type of player they haven't had in a long time here in New England.
But I do think, you know, you mentioned it, you might only get him, you know, a- as a, as a really good player for the next couple years.
I think when 2028 rolls aroundYou, you might want that first round pick i- in 2028 because Drake May's gonna be making a huge salary at that point.
Christian Gonzalez, we think, will be making a lot of money here in New England.
Those cost-controlled first round picks should be cornerstones of, of your organization.
They should be helping you build that foundation.
So I thought it was a little bit of an overpay, but I wanna ask you, if the Patriots didn't offer a first round pick, like, if they just held firm and said, "Hey, 2027 second maybe.
If you want a package of picks, you know, l- down the line, we can talk about that, but no firsts, Howie, no firsts," what do you think would've happened here?
yeah, I don't think it would've gotten done, or I think it would've dragged into training camp, and then f- finally, you know, the Patriots might have relented.
I think, I think the Patriots, Vrabel, and Elliot Wolf, probably the fact that they were so open and aggressive about wanting A.J.
Brown probably hurt them in terms of their leverage.
I mean, essentially, after the Rams backed out, it was really only a, a two-man kind of deal here between the Eagles and the Patriots.
So I- it's, it is kind of a little bit of surprising that Howie was able to get a first rounder with just one viable team that he could trade to.
now, he went into, you know, wanting to trade A.J.
Brown, asking for at least w- from what I was b- wa- was told, a one and a two, possibly even as much as two ones.
Now, that clearly was posturing.
I don't think anyone thought that Howie would get that much.
But that tells you, you know, how far he came.
Now, at the time of the combine, I was told by, you know, someone kind of close to the Patriots that they were seeing him as only worth A.J.
Brown as worth a third rounder, so that also tells you how far that they came.
Now, I think that, again, was just negotiating ploy and, and posturing as well.
So I mean, is a 2028 first rounder along with a fifth from 2027 meeting somewhere in the middle?
Possibly.
So you know, I, I've heard it from both sides, so I do think the fact that you've heard, "Oh, this is a good deal for the Eagles.
Oh, this is a good deal for the Patriots," that it, it's essentially kind of, a fair deal.
I think if you look at it from the Eagles' point of view, the fact that they have to wait two years to get anything in return for A.J.
Brown.
Now, of course, they get, as I mentioned before, the $133 million that they'll, they'll be able to use to sign other players.
But they are taking a pretty significant dead money hit in terms of the salary cap, around 43 million, that forced them to kinda do this deal post June 1 so they could spread it out over a few years.
But the Eagles don't really care as much about dead money as a lot of teams 'cause they spend so much cash, and they push so much, so many, so much money into future years and have these void years in the contract.
So it, it's tough to say.
They wanted a first rounder.
First rounders are hard to get.
so you know, I, I, I'm not one of these guys that sits back and says, "Okay, this is how I'm gonna grade a deal," or I'm gonna say who won the deal or not.
I think there's a lot that has to happen here, and we'll see how it plays out.
But I can see why people in New England are a little upset about how much the, the Patriots gave up, considering that they were pretty much the only bidders for A.J.
Brown at this point.
Yeah, it's, it, it is a really interesting, you know, scenario just in terms of leverage on both sides.
You know, A.J.
Brown, it felt like really was not gonna be going back to Philly.
There were only a couple teams it sounds like he was even really willing to pote- potentially go to.
But then on the other side, and you mentioned the Patriots maybe losing some leverage, that part of it has to be true, too.
Mike Vrabel obviously loves this guy.
He's talking about him openly at the combine, at the podium, about how they still text, and they're still such great friends, and boy, he's so proud of him, you know, as a family man and the person that he's grown into.
And Elliot Wolf recently in a story, with Judy Epstein of Yahoo Sports said they've been after this guy and calling the Eagles about trading for this guy, you know, going back a couple years now.
So i- maybe not a ton of leverage on either end, so it's like this interesting push-pull between both sides and, and the deal ends up, the way it ends up.
Jeff, thank you so much for being with us here.
We've kept you longer than we anticipated, but you are the best.
It's great to pic- pick your brain on this massive trade that we've all been talking about for so long.
Now we get a chance to actually see how it looks on the field, and we appreciate you sharing all of your intel when it comes to how this thing came to be.
Thanks, Phil.
Great stuff there from Jeff.
And just to follow up on a portion of that conversation, if you've been listening to the Patriots Talk podcast, you've heard Tom and I go back and forth.
Was it an overpay for the Patriots to give up a first round pick?
Was it not?
Listen, the things I like about this trade are that the Patriots are showing real urgency here.
This is something that I thought was lacking from the Patriots organization for a number of years.
Now, in Mike Vrabel's second off-season, they go out and they give up a real asset.
That first round pick in 2028's a real asset.
Don't poo-poo it just because the Patriots have failed with a lot of first round picks in the past.
For the teams that are good and the teams that are sustained in terms of having the ability to at least contend for championships, those teams hit on their first round picks.
It, it wasn't all that long ago, maybe for some of you, I, I don't know how many of our listeners are so young that they can't remember this or they weren't even born for this, but the early years of the Bill Belichick era, hit after hit after hit in the first round specifically, even when they were picking low in the first round.
Those guys became core pieces.
They became the foundation of championship-contending teams moving forward.
Look at the Eagles from a couple years ago.
Look at the Seahawks from just last year.
Go back, go look at their last five first round picks, guys that are, for the most part, cost-controlled, that are premium position guys, that are key contributors.
The reason why those teams end up in the Super Bowl conversation, whether they, they land there or not, if you're Philly, why the Seahawks will continue to be in that conversation moving forward, it, it's not necessarily about quarterback play.
Now, the Patriots have that benefit where those two teams don't necessarily.
And listen, when Jalen Hurts helped them win a Super Bowl, he looked great.
Even in the Super Bowl they lost, he looked great, as Sam Darnold had a career year last year.
but the Patriots do, in my opinion, have a real advantage at that quarterback position.But if you start trading away first round picks, where you might end up lacking is having that ability to point to your young players, again, at premium positions, where you're getting really cost-effective production from these guys because of the rookie contracts that they're on.
The more of those you can stack up, the better off you'll be for longer, right?
By giving one of these away, you're in win now mode.
You're, you're operating like the Los Angeles Rams.
So I think there are positives to that, certainly for fans, right?
It's exciting.
These next two years are going to be, I think, a blast.
I think you're gonna be looking at one of the best offenses, if not the best offense in football for the next couple of years if people can stay healthy.
They were second in points last year with a surrounding cast that, quite frankly, just wasn't as good.
They're better on the offensive line.
They're better at the skill positions.
And the quarterback, in my opinion, is only gonna get better and better and have more tools in his tool belt when it comes to operating this Josh McDaniels offense.
So these next couple of years are gonna be really exciting.
However, when you're building a team, and if you feel as though you have any job security whatsoever, and I think it's, you know, safe to say that Mike Vrabel has some real job security.
Coach of the Year, Super Bowl appearance.
I know this off-season was what it was, but I think most people feel as though he's gonna be here longer than the next two years.
With that being the case, you have to continue to project out, and you have to continue to look forward and say, "Okay, what's our team going to look like two years from now?"
'Cause we're gonna be playing football in 2028, and Drake May might be on a salary that pays him close to $70 million a year.
Christian Gonzalez might be on a contract that pays him 35, $36 million a year if they're able to reset that cornerback market this off-season.
Those cost-controlled pieces at premium positions, especially the first round picks, those are the guys you have the best chance of hitting on.
Those matter.
Those are gonna be a big help when your roster starts to get a little bit more expensive.
So you gave up a real chip.
You gave up a real asset.
That's why I say it's a little bit of an overpay.
And going back and forth with Geoff, you know, it is, it's interesting to hear.
I mean, maybe they shouldn't have been so open with their love of A.J.
Brown.
On the Phe- Philly side, they only had really one team to deal him to.
He is 29 years old.
He does have a knee condition that needs monitoring.
It needs managing.
And w- when I look at it from Philly's side, he wasn't going back to Philly.
I mean, I guess they could've held onto him through camp, as Geoff mentions, and it's great to get that sort of insight from Geoff.
Like, how willing would Philly have been to push this?
They're gonna keep him in that locker room through the spring and into the summer?
It sounds like maybe.
I mean, maybe he doesn't even show up to the locker room.
Maybe they just sit on him, and they say, "Hey, listen, if You know, we're happy to, to just have him play for nobody, you know, until September comes around."
That to me doesn't seem like a great situation for either side.
And I'll go back to, you know, A.J.
Brown was traded initially from Tennessee to Philadelphia years ago for a first and a third.
Now he goes And it, it was a mid-first.
Now he goes for a first and a fifth, and we think it'll be a low first, but we don't know.
There's uncertainty when it comes to the draft.
There's uncertainty when it comes to an NFL season, especially when it's in two seasons from now that you're trying to project out.
God forbid, there's a devastating injury.
Devastating injuries happen in the NFL, but the Patriots could end up having a top half of the first round pick in 2028.
I, I think you have to kind of build that in to your calculations when you're trying to figure out, you know, where's the line for us?
Where is the line?
Because he ain't going back to Philly.
He might not be going to any other team in the league.
How much are we willing to pay just so we can get him into the building right now and, and maybe not invite any other potential suitors who start sniffing around because he hangs out on the open market longer than anticipated?
So, that's just my For anybody who hadn't heard, that is sort of my argument when it comes to, not sure you had to pay as much as you ended u- ended up paying.
I think you probably coulda had him for something less, and I think you're going to want that 2028 first round pick whenever it rolls around.
Because the way your team is going to be built, those first round picks are really gonna matter.
You just had a draft that, that you think went pretty well, right?
Will Campbell played like a, a middle-of-the-road left tackle until he got hurt.
That to me is a hit at that position.
Kyle Williams showed flashes.
TreVeyon Henderson showed flashes.
Craig Woodson ended up being a, a day one starter and, you know, maybe from wire to wire, the best rookie in that rookie class from 2025.
But there's not a ton of premium pick stars in there.
You know, m- I would say the guy who has the best chance is Will Campbell, and then let's see about this past draft class.
You, you have basically three picks that are in a stage of the draft where you would expect them to contribute, and then a lot of late round flyers.
Let's see how that goes.
Maybe Caleb Lomu ends up being a, a high-level starter at a premium position.
That's huge.
Again, first round picks.
You can hit on him late, 28th overall.
You know, they ended up having to trade up for him, but that's still a latter portion of the first round pick.
If you get a, a high-end contributor at a premium position, that's massive, massive value for your franchise.
So let's see on him.
Let's see on Gabe Backus.
If Gabe Backus becomes a starter on the edge, massive, massive value as a second round pick.
So those guys have potential, but we don't know that yet.
So I, I just am not sure that you, you just wanna start giving away those first round picks when you might not have had to because you feel so good about your, your young core.
They have Drake May, they have Christian Gonzalez, but by the time that 2028 pick rolls around, those guys are gonna be really expensive.
So-How does this become not an overpay?
An appropriate pay in hindsight?
Go seriously contend for Super Bowls.
I, I won't I, I wouldn't say you have to go win one, but you have to be better than a first round exit.
You have to be better than a wildcard team.
I, I think you've gotta be, you've gotta be winning the division these next couple of years.
I know Josh Allen's there in Buffalo.
The Patriots to me are a better team.
They won the division last year.
I'm not sure why that shouldn't happen again.
The Bills got rid of their head coach.
They brought in somebody who hasn't done it before, and they added DJ Moore.
You know, to me, is that enough to make them the lock it in favorite for the AFC East the next couple years?
Not for me.
I think the Patriots are better.
Win the division, host playoff games, seriously compete for Super Bowls.
Because if you're not, then I think you have missed the evaluation on your own team.
Doesn't mean you've missed the evaluation on AJ Brown.
He could have 1,300 yards the next two years.
That's an unbelievable addition.
But you, again, you gave up a real chip in that 2028 first round pick.
If you end up losing in the wildcard round the next two years with AJ Brown lighting it up, you didn't miss on AJ Brown, you missed on your evaluation of your own team.
Because you clearly needed more to be able to reach the highest heights, to be able to reach your goals of winning a Super Bowl.
So you have to, you have to understand where you are.
Are they where the Rams are?
Right?
The Rams know who they are.
They know what they have to do.
They have to maximize.
They only have maybe a couple years left of Matthew Stafford, and they are going to wring every last drop out of this roster as currently constructed, with Davante Adams, who's getting up there in age, with Stafford, with Puka Nacua.
Now they're adding on the defensive side, massive swings on the defensive side with Trent McDuffie and Myles Garrett.
They know who they are.
They know how close they are.
Are the Patriots there?
That to me is the debate.
And I know my buddy Tom Curran would say, "Listen, the AFC's wide open."
Are the Chiefs a lock to make it to the conference championship game again?
Are the Bills?
No and no.
Are the Ravens?
New head coach, quarterback who's been banged up.
listen, they, those are all very good teams and amazing quarterbacks.
I haven't even mentioned the Bengals yet.
Are the Bengals able to, to get there?
Are they able to stay healthy a- and be that team that they were a handful of years ago when they made it to the Super Bowl against the Rams?
It's open.
The door is open.
So you could make the case the Patriots are in just as good a spot as the Rams.
I'm just not sure.
Like, they're, they still got some holes at some, some premium spots.
I look at that edge spot.
I look at depth at corner.
I look at the defense really overall.
And while that was the unit that, that carried them to the Super Bowl last year, through that postseason, made the Texans and Chargers look bad, are they better on that side?
I'm not sure.
Right?
If they end up going to the wi- again, AJ Brown lights it up.
They are in the divisional round, and they lose 38-35.
Is that a team that should be giving away a first-round pick for a receiver who's 29 on a bad knee?
So let's, let's see.
I think these next two years, again, just to reiterate, are gonna be great for them offensively.
You at home, you're gonna love it for two years.
Offensively, watching this team operate, it's gonna be a blast for you.
But you've gotta have a longer view.
If you're Elliot Wolf, if you're ownership, if you're Mike Vrabel, 'cause he's gonna be here, you've gotta have a long-term view of, of how this thing is going to look, not just for right now, because this is a team that has a young quarterback, that is not i- in a, in a mode where if they don't win these next couple, that might be it for a while.
That ain't it.
A- and to me, AJ Brown was not the difference between competing for the division and hosting playoff games and doing all those things you wanna do and doing those things you did do last year and not.
He wasn't the difference.
I'm sorry.
I, I think this receiver group was basically just as good as constructed prior to AJ Brown's addition as it was last year.
I think you anticipate some improvement from a number of different guys.
I think there's a chance Romeo Doubs gives you what Stefon Diggs gave you.
I think those are two players going in, in different directions in terms of their arcs, and I think the quarterback's getting better.
I think the offensive line's better.
I think the running game will be better.
So you are still gonna be a pretty damn good team without AJ Brown.
Now that you add him, you gotta win, and you gotta win at a high, high level with a very productive AJ Brown.
So we'll see how that goes.
Again, I think you're gonna have a blast watching it.
Now, when it comes to how he gets used, I think people are interested by this.
And I think it's a relatively simple equation to start.
We got a hint from Mike Vrabel earlier this week at the podium.
Here's what Vrabel had to say in terms of how they're going to get AJ Brown acclimated into this Patriots offense.
Here's Vrabel.
Well, I mean, I think all the guys right now are gonna learn a lot of the different positions.
I think that the ones that have been here, that's how Todd's tried to install the offense, is to know, what each player has on each concept a- and learn it that way.
And I would imagine that AJ would, would do the same and, give the, give guys the ability to line inside of Kyle or line outside and, u- use, you know, Romeo insideSo I think to try to just-- Right now he's gonna have to learn one position, and I would imagine that's gonna be outside.
But as that grows, I, I know that that will be, you know, across the board, and I think that that's hopefully something that he's looking forward to do.
But, you know, you have to learn one before you can learn them all.
They wanna move these guys around.
This is how To- Downing has, has coached this position for a number of years.
Going back to his days i- in Tennessee with Mike Vrabel, and he's tight ends coach, and then he's offensive coordinator.
He wants those guys to learn every spot so you can move them around.
And you know who loves that?
Josh McDaniels.
And h- he's in charge of the offense now, and he's gonna be able to do a lot of these types of things.
He was able to move guys around, like Davante Adams, like, you know, Brandon Marshall way back in the day, Randy Moss, to be able to get those guys mismatches week to week so that you could maximize what you were getting out of them.
And so the same will be true for A.J.
Brown, but they're gonna start him on the outside.
They're gonna start him at that X position.
And to me, that's where he should be spending the majority of his time.
The way he wins, he's not gonna be the world's best separator, and that's okay, because he is so effective in the contested catch game.
And I have some numbers here courtesy of ESPN.
Mina Kimes had some great stats here that she was able to acquire when it comes to, Drake May and his skill set, and A.J.
Brown and his skill set, and how those things mesh together.
Drake May, first in precision pass rate.
He was first in just about every accuracy metric that you could cook up, you know, maybe until those last couple weeks of the regular season.
But week after week after week, down the field, intermediate area, outside the numbers, inside the numbers, he was as accurate as it gets.
First in QBR, first in completion percentage over expected.
And this is, let me point out, this is all on tight window throws.
So this is throwing into coverage.
First in precision pass rate, first in QBR.
That's ESPN's quarterback metric, all-encompassing quarterback metric.
First in completion percentage over expected.
Dynamite.
Contested catch situations.
And how many contested catch guys did they really have on that roster last year?
You know, Diggs actually was excellent at times in contested catch situations.
Think back to that touchdown against the, the, the Texans.
Think about, the long down-the-field throw on the over route against the Ravens.
think about the down-the-field, on-the-move, off-schedule play along the right sideline in Buffalo.
So they were, they were effective, no question, in contested catch situations, but it wasn't like they were loaded with contested catch guys.
Stefon Diggs is-- the reason he's as valuable as he's been over the course of his career is, yeah, he can do that stuff, but he's a separator.
He-- And he, and he's a savvy receiver who understands where to sit down in the open spaces and zones.
Like, he's a get open guy.
A.J.
Brown's a much different type of player.
Drake May, bottom line, tight window throws, next level.
Next level good in 2025.
Over the last three years, so we're encompassing a, a, a larger sample now when it comes to A.J.
Brown, and, you know, last year was not great.
And you heard Jeff McClain talk about, the drop rate in certain situations was not great.
He still had 1,000 yards.
He still had a very productive season.
But, you know, the numbers started going in the wrong way when it comes to, you know, yards per catch, things of that nature.
But over the last three years, A.J.
Brown in tight window situations, first in yards per route run, first in catches, first in first downs.
You can look at the explosive play rate for A.J.
Brown, the explosive play rate for Drake May.
These guys are really gonna function well together, and I think it's going to be primarily with A.J.
Brown on the outside.
Doesn't mean they won't move him around.
Doesn't mean there won't be some trial and error here, and that'll be one of the storylines for us to track.
Spring, summer, where is A.J.
Brown on the field?
What are the routes that he's running?
Because I think you're gonna be seeing some experimentation maybe, maybe with A.J.
Brown, because Josh McDaniels wants to get input from the player himself.
You know, where is he most comfortable?
What does he feel he does best?
And then go bring it to life on the field and go see how that works.
Where is it easiest for Drake May to work with A.J.
Brown?
How can the quarterback put the receiver in the best positions to succeed?
I think that's one of the great things about having such an experienced coordinator running your offense, is that he's, he's done this before, not just with, you know, number one receivers like Moss and Marshall and Adams and others.
You know, Rob Gronkowski, if you wanna throw him in that, into that mix.
obviously a different position, but powerful guy, forceful guy in, in a way where, you know, A.J.
Brown, I think, shows at times similar force when it comes to just attacking the football in these contested situations and, and shrugging off smaller defenders.
And McDaniels acknowledged that.
That, that's gonna be part of the, part of the deal when it comes to, these first few weeks and months with A.J.
Brown in the fold.
Here's how he described getting him up to speed.
You know, I think one of the things that's really cool about veteran players when you, when you acquire them like this is you get to sit down and ask them, you know, how they see the game.
What are they good at?
You know?
W- 'Cause they've done a lot of things that maybe I haven't done, you know, or, or called or coached.
So, you know, I've done that with players before.
I look forward to doing that with A.J.
All right, let's get to some of your mailbag questions here.
Got some great ones this week.
We're gonna start with KillingMeSmalls32.
"Should the Patriots trade Booty," KeShawn Booty, "to the Giants for Kavon," meaning Kavon Thibodeaux?
"Giants need a wide receiver, and we need an edge rusher."
It's a good question, KillingMeSmalls, and I love player-for-player trades.
let's just go and check out what the Giants are working with at receiver.
Obviously, they have Malik Nabers, and he is gonna be their number one guy.
I don't think KeShawn Booty, even if he's hoping to be traded, is expecting to be a number one guy anywhere, I don't think.He's a very confident individual, so I won't say that like I know it, but, you know, based on his production, he probably understands if he's somewhere in the top three, you know, that would be, a good situation for him.
He probably doesn't see that happening here in New England with the addition of A.J.
Brown now.
You have Romeo Dobbs.
It's just getting very crowded at the top of that depth chart.
The Patriots are gonna wanna use Kyle Williams.
He's a third-round pick who's in his second year.
Keishaun Booty's a sixth-round pick who's in his fourth year.
They play a similar position.
They, they both play that X position.
I think Kyle Williams is gonna have to figure out some different positions.
He's gonna have to move around a little bit because, again, if A.J.
Brown's healthy, he's gonna be out there playing X. A- and maybe they move him a little bit, and they can get him some different matchups, but, you know, if you can get him on an island on the backside of the formation, on the line of scrimmage, that's a pretty good place for A.J.
Brown to be.
It means somebody else who might like to be there is gonna have to move.
Keishaun Booty, I think, will get moved ultimately.
I'm not sure people are, are beating down New England's door to get him.
I think if they were, he'd already be gone.
So you can't give him away, in my opinion.
I think he's too valuable for that, so maybe you just wait it out.
I mean, he hasn't been around for OTAs.
Let's see if he shows up for mandatory mini camp, which will be next week.
If he doesn't, it-- you know, we went over this with, Christian Gonzalez, I believe it was last week on this podcast, that the fines are really not prohibitive, even for somebody who, who hasn't made, you know, millions upon millions over the course of his career to this point, like Keishaun Booty.
It's about 100 grand, I think, is the, is the, the penalty for missing all three days of mandatory mini camp is the way it adds up.
So not ideal, but i- if you really just wanna make a statement, also not prohibitive.
So the Giants have Malik Nabers, they have Darius Slayton, they have Calvin Austin III.
They just signed a host of veteran guys, Juju Smith-Schuster, Braxton Berrios, and Odell Beckham Jr. would any of those guys being present and on the roster prevent them from going out and making a trade for Keishaun Booty?
I don't think so.
I, I'd rather have Booty than basically every name I've mentioned on this list other than Nabers.
They also drafted Malachi Fields in the third round, so they're gonna wanna try to get him on the field.
Now that's a big-bodied player, and if they view him as an X, then maybe, you know, it, now it becomes a difficult spot to envision Keishaun Booty landing.
but I don't hate the idea because, again, that player-for-player thing, if you're talking about Kavon Thibodeaux and moving on from him, if you're the Giants, because you already have Abdul Carter, who's a high-end first-round pick, obviously you have Brian Burns, who you've given a lot of money to.
Do they think they can get something better than Booty for, for Thibodeaux?
He's somebody who is, you know, pl- plays a premium position.
He's a first-round pick himself.
Are there teams out there that still see that, that pre-draft Kavon Thibodeaux?
Because, he really has not panned out the way that I thought he would.
let's look up the stats for Thibodeaux through this point of his career.
And maybe part of it is, listen, they're not putting him in the most advantageous spots because they have Brian Burns, but you would think when you're playing opposite a guy like that, you know, you've got the potential to ha- to see your production go through the roof.
Teams are gonna be more focused on Burns than you, and so why aren't you doing a little bit more?
Looking at his sack numbers, great 2023 with 11 and a half, but since then, just eight sacks in the last two years in 22 games.
So he's also missed some time.
Missed seven games last year, missed five the year before that.
So he's been a little bit banged up.
He has not been incredibly productive, but there's, there's some juice there.
And the Patriots, I think, KillingMeSmalls, they need help there.
They, they do still need to add.
So, so whether it's via trade with a, with a Thibodeaux, or it's just signing a couple of veteran guys, and there are some, some bigger name veteran guys that we went over last week that are still available, they, they just need more there.
And I wonder if the reason that they are ranked so low by ESPN's Football Power Index, where they came in 14th this week, is related to their defense.
Now, I won't pretend to know everything that goes into that formula.
It could be very heavily schedule related.
The Patriots, have a difficult schedule when you're looking at last year's records for teams.
When you're looking at teams' projected records for this year, their schedule is not as difficult.
My guess is, for something that relies on numbers the way FPI does, and, you know, ESPN has some great people, some really smart people, Seth Walder and others that are, that are working for them, that, my guess is they're working more on projections as opposed to last year's schedule, which again would suggest the Patriots schedule was really difficult.
So, is it that?
Or is it the Patriots defense, where, you know, I thought their numbers last year were inflated, right?
If you, if you wanna talk about the schedule and the easiness of their schedule in 2025, and I know a lot of you don't wanna talk about it , but when you're talking about it, it's unavoidable.
You have to look at the defense first.
When it came to the defenses the Patriots played, so Drake Mayes' difficulty of schedule in 2025, that was actually a representative schedule, right?
They played some really bad teams.
the Browns are a great example.
They played the Browns last year.
Horrible team.
Not because of their defenseIt's actually a pretty good defense.
One of the best players on the planet with a, with a pretty loaded secondary, and it was specifically a good pass defense last year.
They just couldn't win games 'cause they had nobody at quarterback.
So the Patriots saw a number of teams of that ilk.
So don't take away from the Patriots' offense and from Drake May and their performance last year when you look at the schedule.
If you're taking away from anybody, it probably would be from the defensive side.
So their, their numbers were pumped up because they, they did not see a tremen- a tremendous number of good quarterbacks last year.
I wonder if FPI is looking at a situation like the one the Patriots have on the edge, right?
To get back to that Thibodeaux conversation and just that position in general.
Do they look at something like that where it's thin and it's unproven in, in some corners, and in other corners it's proven but been banged up.
Do they look at the Patriots cornerback position and just say if they lose either Carlton Davis or Christian Gonzalez, and it's hard to play that injury game, but if they were to, it's a relatively thin group.
You know, you'd be asking a lot of somebody like Charles Woods, who I thought played well for them at times, but, you know, do you wanna go weeks and weeks with, with him as one of your top guys on, on the outside if he has to be out there?
Maybe it's Marcus Jones, maybe Woods bumps inside.
You know, I just think there are some questions on the defensive side.
You know, is Christian Barmore gonna be somebody who shows up and plays to his capabilities wire to wire, which I didn't think happened last year.
Milton Williams was great.
Milton Williams was great.
A- and that linebacker duo of Christian Ellis and Robert Spillane, I thought when they were on the field and healthy, was really, really good.
You know, Spillane missed time, and it really hurt them on the defensive side.
Their run defense specifically, fell off the map.
And that coincided with an absence from Milton Williams, and so, you know, I'm-- that's the, that's the kind of thing, that I would imagine hurts the Patriots in a ranking like that one, right?
That's really heavily analytically focused, that FPI ranking.
And say, yep, they're 14th.
They're, they're behind the Texans who they smoked in the playoffs.
They're be- way behind the Chargers, who I believe ranked seventh on this list, who they smoked in the playoffs.
They're way behind the Bills, who again have a new coach that to me gives that whole operation an air of uncertainty.
I know he's been the offensive coordinator, and so you can keep that consistent.
Head coach is a different job now.
Like, let's see.
Let's see how Joe Brady handles it.
So, it, it all is a roundabout way of saying I like where you're thinking, I like where your head's at in terms of trading a player for a player, right?
Hold onto those draft picks if you can, and picking up a guy specifically at that position, because that, that to me is still the weak link of this roster.
Who knows?
Maybe Gabe Akers, who we haven't seen at OTAs yet.
maybe Gabe Akers comes in and lights the world on fire, and Harold Landry stays healthy, and Dre'Mont Jones is, you know, is just as productive if not more than he was last year.
And Elijah Ponder takes a second-year leap as an undrafted guy from last year.
Like, those are your guys right now at that spot.
Is it enough?
I would say no, not right now, but you add another piece, with some real juice, and maybe the situation there changes.
David Norrish, he asks, "How does Eli Rairdon look?"
I'm glad you asked, David, because really unfortunate, Vrabel called it devastating.
That injury to Julian Hill to me is a, is a, is a brutal one and is a really disappointing one for somebody who wanted to see what it looked like with a variety of different types and ability levels at that tight end position.
You know, Julian Hill's a, a established pro and a guy who's gonna block his tail off and bring a level of toughness and physicality to your offense, and a mentality that I think just really was gonna help shape the personality of your offense, right?
In, in a way that somebody like a James Devlin would in, in the past, right?
Was Devlin ever one of their most important offensive players?
I mean, maybe that stretch run in 2018 you could say that, but, you know, it's a star-studded offense a lot of the time.
But where was his importance?
His importance was obviously clearing space in the run game, but it was giving them a personality, giving them an identity, giving them an energy that very few people could provide in a similar way.
Just giving them that level of toughness that is hard to find on the planet.
You know, never mind in a league that is basically, on its way to, to having nobody who's able to play that fullback position.
So different position for Hill, but I th- I thought could have maybe had a similar impact.
I know they got Reggie Gillyam, and so he'll bring a lot of that, right?
The-- I think the offensive lineman that they brought aboard, Elijah Varick-Tucker, if he can stay healthy, you know, like I think he can give them a, a little bit more edge.
I like that.
I, I think Mack Hollins brings that at the receiver position.
So they have plenty of that.
but I thought Hill was gonna be a nice add when it came to that and would just allow you to, you know, really roll right into your season using a lot of 12 personnel, maybe even some 13 personnel.
So now he's out for the season, Julian Hill is.
What do you do?
What do you do?
If you wanna be a heavy offensive package team, to me, El- Eli Rairdon, step right up.
it's really hard for rookies to step in and contribute and contribute a lot right away because there's just so much on their plates.
Run game, pass game, you've got to know a lot.
And in terms of the physicality of the position, I don't care if you played at Notre Dame, I don't care if you played at Alabama, the, the jump there is seismic, right?
I- if you're asked to block a defensive end, it looks a lot different to do that than it does even in the college football playoff.
So how does he look?Shorts and T-shirts.
He looks okay.
He looks big, I would say that, through two practices.
saw him ca- catch a couple, when we were out there earlier this week.
Ran a nice out route, caught it cleanly.
Had another, ball was almost ripped out of his hands as soon as it hit his hands.
He was able to, though, while it's up in the air, and it's a threat to be picked off, is able to snatch it back himself, makes, you know, what ends up being a juggling catch.
Good concentration.
You know, you don't wanna lose it in the first place, but he ends up making that reception and avoiding a turnover there.
So I think he's been fine.
Let's hear from Josh McDaniels, though.
He's seen a lot more of him than I have.
Here's McDaniels on his rookie tight end.
good.
You know, I mean, the, the rookies are They're, they're still in the pool.
you know, they're swimming a little bit, which is to be expected at this point.
But, making progress every day, learning something new every day.
I've said this before to you guys, you either do something right or you learn from the mistake, so every rep should be a beneficial one for us at this time of the year.
So, Eli has a good, good, attitude and approach, and he's coming out trying to get better every day.
So plenty of work there to be done.
Not a surprise.
But if they wanna be a 12-heavy team, you know, maybe they end up being more of a 21-heavy team now that Julian Hill is out.
But you wanna get those tight ends on the field.
Could be Raridon.
Could be Jack Westover.
You know, I think one thing that Jack Westover did really well last year was, you know, not only basically learn a new position at fullback a- and show that he was tough enough to do it.
Was he as impactful as a Devlin or as a, as a Gilliam might be?
No.
But he's a professional a- and I think that goes a long way.
And so when you see him at this time of year in the spring, and who knows, maybe even into training camp, as the number two tight end, which he was this, earlier this week.
If it wasn't Hunter Henry out there, it was, it was Jack Westover, with Drake May.
You know, I think the reason you're gonna see him get opportunities is because he handled his job last year.
Again, was he, was he the best in the li- was he the best we've ever seen at that fullback spot?
No.
But tough, smart, dependable.
For somebody like a Josh McDaniels, Mike Vrabel, you know, that goes a long way.
and who knows?
Maybe he gained some confidence just by being in the huddle as often as he was last year, playing in some big spots.
Now you get him back at tight end at his more, you know, natural spot, you know, maybe he takes that confidence and it, and it helps him take a leap, you know, as a pass-catching tight end.
So let's see on Jack Westover, and let's see on Eli Raridon.
Raridon to me, in terms of the physical skill set, you know, we've talked about it a lot on this podcast, I think has a ton of potential.
So it's just a question of how much can he absorb?
How much trust can he build with somebody like Drake May, with somebody like Josh McDaniels this time of year?
And, you know, who knows?
Maybe he ends up being that guy in those 12 personnel packages.
We'll see.
All right, that's gonna do it for this edition of The Next Pats Podcast.
Thanks so much for being with us.
Thanks so much to Jeff McLean for joining us and talking about all things AJ Brown and that AJ Brown trade.
We so appreciate him spending some time with us.
Appreciate you as well.
We're gonna be right back here next week talking about the Patriots and Patriots mini camp.
We also have some great interviews lined up with college coaches that are gonna share some intel with us about new Patriots rookies, right?
Some of the, some of the higher-end guys, some of the more highly touted first-year players, but also some of those under-the-radar guys, some of those day three guys, some of those undrafted guys, as well as some great conversations there that we'll be able to share with you throughout the course of the off-season.
Keep it right here on Next Pats.
We'll tell you everything you need to know when it comes to what's coming next for your football team.
We'll talk to you very soon.
