Tua's days as a starting QB could be numbered
Mike Florio and Chris Simms examine Tua Tagovailoa's NFL career and break down his uncertain future as he has yet to win the Atlanta Falcons' starting quarterback job.
Video Transcript
And I've got a thought on that- Yeah before we get there.
Here's Ian Cunningham from yesterday on the progress Michael Penix Jr. Is making as he continues his recovery from the season-ending torn ACL in 2025.
We never went into it that way.
Things happen, you know?
So a- again, with him, for him to be where he's at, it shows because he's been working his tail off to get to this point, and our staff putting a really good plan together for him to get to the point of 11 on 11, where we're having these conversations where, who's gonna be the starting p- quarterback and is he gonna be ready?
It goes to show you, like he's put himself in that position because of the work that he's put in.
So I think they're hoping that Penix can get there.
I was looking at their depth chart on their website, and of course they'll say it doesn't mean anything, but it's out there.
It's the closest thing we have- Yeah to an indication from the team.
They've got Tua and Penix as the first team, Cooper Rush as second, and Jack Strand as third, which is impossible because whoever the starter isn't is gonna be second.
I think, that's where I'm getting curious about this, and they've got Tua ahead of Penix.
That's not alphabetical order.
So there's a message to that.
I think they, they want it to be Tua, but Tua hasn't been good enough, so they're kind of willing Penix to get healthy enough to play.
Here's the question.
Yeah.
If Penix isn't ready to go, is there a chance they just can't put Tua out there?
Is there a chance they just go with Cooper Rush, or crazy outside the box- Yeah possibility of letting the kid from Minnesota State, Moorhead- Yeah, Jack Strand roll the dice and let's see, 'cause he's the Matt Ryan on the depth chart.
Yeah, yeah.
I, I, I mean, I, I hear what you're saying.
I, I think it'll, it'll still be Tua, but he You know, again, just watch.
Watch Tua play in the preseason.
You, you can't come away with going, "Ooh, that looked good."
I know the stats will even be somewhat good last week against the Dolphins, but we fumbled a snap, we had another drive end up in nothing to start the game.
It was the third drive of the game, and even when they had success on that third drive, it wasn't like you were like, "Oh man, he looks good.
He's carving them up."
I mean, he threw a shallow cross to Kyle Pitts.
He broke like three tackles and then ran up the sidelines for like 45 yards.
And then there was another play like that.
Again, plays that I'd go, "This isn't gonna be realistic against the number ones in the regular season when teams and the smarter players and the better players, and they've seen these plays.
Like, that stuff's not gonna work."
That's what I've argued with some of this fake success we've seen in the preseason with some quarterbacks.
And, and, and of course they were playing their one- they were playing their ones to Atlanta, and it was the Dolphins twos and threes, and they were having a hard time moving the ball efficiently.
So like to your point, it doesn't feel like they wanna do it.
Now, you know, I, Kevin Stefanski, I don't know how much power he has in this.
He's gotta be a little bit like, "Damn, I, yeah, I'd like to frame my, you know, team around my quarterback here."
But Tua has not, you know, taken charge here to, to make them feel good about that.
And with Ian Cunningham there and the new regime, well, I, I maybe they're looking at it going, "L- listen.
I just saw Caleb Williams, you know, and I'm looking at Tua.
He ain't a starting franchise quarterback, that's for sure.
I know what a starting franchise quarterback's arm looks like and all that.
I just came from Caleb Williams."
Michael Penix, when I see him throw the ball, I go, "Ooh, that looks kind of like Caleb Williams sometimes with the boy how it pops and spins and all that."
So I, I think they, they He- of course he's an important asset, and they traded And, and I mean, and, and it was a controversial pick, and I would think there's some way they'd wanna make that work instead of diving back into the quarterback market.
And I'm sure that plays a part in this as well, but again, I would say this situation is very odd that we're still here talking about a quarterback competition where one of the guys hasn't been able to compete.
One of them hasn't been able to compete, and they're still gonna go, "We might name the guy that's been standing by the Gatorade bottle to compete.
We still might name him the winner, even though he didn't really compete and get to show what he can do."
That, that's crazy, honestly.
You know, one of these days there is gonna be a compelling documentary about the football career of Tua.
Yeah.
There really is.
Yeah.
Because how did we all get to know Tua?
Yeah.
National championship.
Mm-hmm.
Jalen Hurts benched.
Exactly.
Tua plays.
Yeah.
They win it all.
Makes a big throw at the end, and they win it all.
Yep.
And Tank for Tua was the thing in 2019 until Joe Burrow emerged, but still he was the fifth overall pick, one pick ahead of Justin Herbert.
And there's always been a counter to whatever he does well, whether it's Remember as a rookie, they were pulling him out in two-minute situations, and they were going with Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Yeah.
And Fitzpatrick later explained it's because Tua didn't know those plays and- Those nuances of the- wasn't ready to go out- Right and run it then- Yeah which was a bad look.
Yeah.
And then he had the concussions.
How do you not- And he admitted that he didn't prepare well that year- Right, right and wasn't a professional, right?
'Cause then when Mike McDaniel was there, that was one of the things.
It was the shots of him out there doing the mental reps before the game.
Before the game, right.
Getting there early to go- Yep and do all the stuff.
And then he had the concussions, and he became the name and the face that we associate with head trauma in the NFL.
The, the hit where he got pulled down onto the ground in Cincinnati, and his head hit, and he went to the hospital and thought maybe he's never gonna play again.
Then he's not, he's not as big as the typical quarterback- No so it's an even greater onus on protecting yourself.
And there's been all this adversity, but he has still found ways to succeed.
He led the NFL in passing- Yeah in 2023.
Passing yardage got him the, the big contract in the mid 50 million per year.
It's just this very complicated, contradictory story that always feels like it's on the verge of imploding.
Yeah.
And I- feel like this is the year it's gonna go one way or the other.
No one is gonna want him to be a starter next year unless he plays well this year, and it's still not clear the Falcons even want him to be the starter this year.
Yeah.
It's, it is something we've never seen before, and I think Tua is a quarterback we've never seen before because he is a non-prototypical size.
He's had these flaws in his game.
He's had the injuries that have made him unavailable at stretches.
And then the year that he led the league in passing, that was 2023, and that was the year they're dropping like flies, and he somehow goes wire to wire.
Mm-hmm.
That was the year with Kirk Cousins.
Yeah.
That was the year with Aaron Rodgers.
Mm-hmm.
Week one, this quarterback's hurt, that quarter- quarterback's hurt, and Tua, Tua plays every game.
So it's just a f- a fascinating story start to finish, and it's not over yet, but it feels like it could be ending.
Yeah.
It feels like- Yeah this is it- Right for Tua, and if, if he's not the week one starter, and he loses the competition to a guy who wasn't healthy enough to compete, what does that say- Yeah the Falcons think about him?
I Exactly right.
A- and, you know, again, this is where I, I You know me.
I've taken a lot of crap about my stance with Tua when he was the number one quarter- or the number one passing quarterback in football.
I was still there going, "It ain't good."
I, you know, this is where, hey, I know people might look at me, and they still go, "Oh, well, you got Zach Wilson wrong.
The guy that everybody had number two, he made him number one, and the guy that I had number one, he made him number two.
Oh, that's crazy."
but, but one of my jobs is to tell you, and things where I evaluate through my experience to go, "You know, yeah, the numbers look good, but I'm not sure I buy into it."
I mean, you know, I, I was ahead of the curve with Blake Bortles, right?
I told you, "It's not realistic.
That'll, that'll fall apart as soon as that team stops being-" What was your line?
Uh- What was your line on Blake Bortles?
You know- He was not- Put on earth to throw the football.
Right.
And I was proven right to find out that he was a lefty that threw the ball righty.
So that was like, bam.
Okay, Chris was right about that.
He was just the biggest guy on the team, and they said, "You be quarterback."
Exactly.
Isn't that the story?
He's a good athlete.
Yeah.
Exactly.
He was And so, so yes, and I probably went overboard in some of my playing with that whole situation.
Tua, the same thing.
You know, Jalen Hurts.
Again, I know Jalen Hurts has had success and all that, but I think in a lot of ways from what we've seen this off-season and what's come out of Philadelphia, I wasn't far off in everything I've been saying about Jalen Hurts.
With Tua, this is a guy to me that, yeah, in some ways in football terms had a shamrock up his ass really here through his football career.
He got to play at Alabama, the, by far the best team in college football, with an all-star team around him, all a bunch of first-round, offensive linemen and first-round wide receivers, and they were phenomenal.
And we gave him the credit, as we do in this sport too often, to go, "Oh, they won the game, the quarterback, the quarterback, the quarterback."
And then, and you know my thought of that always was I go, "We coulda put 20 quarterbacks in college football on that Alabama team, and they would've been every bit as good if not better," you know?
Oh, wow, he's perfectly protected, and he threw a slant to Jaylen Waddle, and he ran 70 yards?
I mean, come on.
And that's wh- so he was drafted way too high because of the team.
This is how teams mess it up.
We've gone through this before.
We're drafting the team instead of looking the player.
It's like, it's like opposite of Mahomes or Josh Allen, where the team The people looked at him and went, "Oh, the team wasn't very good.
He can't be good.
They didn't have a good record."
You know, Patrick Mahomes was 4 and 7 his senior year.
"Hey, he's not very good."
What?
Turn on the film.
You go, he, he made more crazy throws and awesome throws in one game than Tua did in the whole year of college football.
So he got that, and then he gets to Miami, and he doesn't have the shamrock up his butt for a little while.
And then Mr. Shamrock Leprechaun Mike McDaniel comes to town and goes, "Hey, I got a shamrock for you again.
Let me show you this offense, and I'll just do everything for you," and it kind of fools you with numbers and success and the way things are.
But then, as we know, teams caught on to Mike McDannel- McDaniel a little bit.
I do think his game changed because of the concussion, and he was unwilling to hold the ball in the pocket as much, and it's all kind of been downhill from there.
And that's, you know, a crazy story, and I think this is where now he doesn't have all these tricks, and he's gonna have to play quarterback a lot like the rest of the league is gonna have to play quarterback.
And Atlanta's going, "Wait, if the pocket's clean and he's gotta throw a 20-yard out route, he, he can't really do it, or he doesn't do it very well.
Oh, if the pocket's clean and he's gotta make a power throw in cut 15, 20 yards down the field, it's just meh."
And so yeah, I think that's why they're sitting there going, "We might play Michael Penix even though he hasn't even been in the quarterback competition.
He still might win the quarterback competition."
