Underestimating Miami's Season: A Win Total Analysis
Kevin Walsh breaks down his skepticism about Miami with key defensive losses and a frail offensive line, signaling a tough season and hard games ahead.
Video Transcript
Now here's the interesting thing, though.
I'm not in on this Miami team relative to everyone else.
I actually find their win total to be shocking.
I love their under 10 and a half, and I think it's one of the easier win total cases to make I've ever seen.
Now, the starting point is believing they will lose on November 7th at Notre Dame, which I 100% believe.
They played last year, week one, great game.
Miami win on the field goal.
If those teams played-- If they met in the playoffs, okay, Notre Dame would've been the favorite.
Notre Dame got much better as the season went on.
Notre Dame are better this season than they were last season.
This is where I seem to be on an island.
Miami are not.
Miami is not better.
Their defense is very clearly took a step back with not one but two first-round draft picks off the edge in Mesidor and Bain.
And Bain, right.
This is not a typical Mario Cristobal offensive line.
It's not awful.
It's not special.
They're usually awesome, top five nationally ranked.
It's not that.
Darian Mensah is gonna have some monster games.
Like, if they let him, he'll combine for 700 yards no problem against Florida A&M and Central Michigan.
No problem.
He'll, he'll have 300-yard games in ACC play.
Carson Beck has significantly more pedigree than Darian Mensah.
Significantly more.
Like, Beck's being a little bit undersold in all of this Mensah hype.
So-- And the game's in Notre Dame, by the way.
Like, it's in South Bend.
So if they lose to Notre Dame, most people would say, "Okay, well, find me another loss."
I don't have to find it.
Cristobal will.
He's never not been upset.
He gets upset everywhere he coaches.
Last year, to put in this-- Last season, they played in the national championship game and still lost two ACC games.
That's how talented they were last year.
They beat Notre Dame last year, and they still found a way.
And by the way, one of them was at home to Louisville.
Do not tell me that Mario Cristobal is all of a sudden upset proof.
I think they lose at Clemson.
I actually think they lose multiple ACC games, because that's really who Mario Cristobal is, Craig.
I, I don't know if that sounds unfair, but that's-- His track record suggests there's no chance they're an 11 and 1 regular season team.
Well, he, I, I, I think for the first time last year sort of, bounced on the variance.
I'll tell you, you know, sort of what that means, is that, the point that you make on Cristobal is fine.
They're gonna have four or five games this season out of the 12 that they play that are gonna come down to the last minute or two.
Maybe you could say that about a lot of college football teams, but Miami- Yeah more than most, Kevin- Mm-hmm always seem to be involved in a game where they maybe should've won, and they're gonna need a play or two at the end to win.
Forget the cover, just win the game.
Yeah.
So to your point- Yeah so to your point, that is fair.
Last year in particular, the variance bounced Miami's way.
It did.
It bounced Miami's way.
They ended up winning the majority, not all, but the majority of those games, including that run through the college football playoff where just- Mm-hmm you know, basically a play or two would've significantly altered their season, maybe not getting into the playoff.
Was it Ohio State, I think also?
Maybe losing to Ohio State on the final play of the game or the final two plays of the game.
So you're 100% right.
But Miami in the end, still gonna be the most talented team in the conference.
That's gonna go- Yes without saying.
Mensah may be a guy, unlike Beck, who was more of a manager, that, that could give them a win that they're not supposed to get because of his talent and ability.
Beck the better quarterback, Mensah the more variance quarterback.
The guy that, oh my gosh, he may throw a 70-yard touchdown pass to Malachi- Yeah Tony at the end of a game, where Beck was not gonna do that.
Beck was just gonna, you know, check down or, you know, or throw- Mm-hmm a pick.
You know, good for Beck.
He's in the NFL.
He'll be a third string.
You know, the things you're saying about Cristobal are, are all fair.
This is-- It does seem to me like a little bit of an inflated total, but really because of Miami's schedule within the conference, all it really requires them is to win those, you know, that Notre Dame game, maybe one more big one- Mm-hmm and take care of the business they're supposed to take care of.
So I don't like either way, either, either side with this, over or under.
I just would say if you're betting on variance, you're betting against Miami this year.
