Why Saturday May Be the Most Important Regular Season Start of Connelly Early’s Career
After the worst start of his young career, the Boston Red Sox' left-hander faces an important test.
Video Transcript
What's up everyone?
Zach Coe here for Roundtable.
After an incredible start to his Major League career, Red Sox rookie left-handed starter Connelly Early is beginning to see something that happens to pretty much every rookie Major League player, whether it be pitcher or hitter, and that is the league begins to adjust back to you.
It's been a rough month of June for the lefty, as he's begun to see the regression that his peripheral numbers suggested was on the horizon.
Over his last three starts, he's allowed 12 earned runs on 22 hits, good for a 736 ERA while walking seven.
And it's a stretch that includes the worst start of his career last Sunday night.
A four-and-two-third inning performance, allowing six earned runs on 11 hits, which were both career highs.
Of course, Early has developed a major home run problem as of late.
He's consistently struggled to get ahead in the count, which forces him to attack batters, and they're capitalizing on it in a big way.
After not allowing a single home run in each of his first seven starts, he's allowed 14 in his last 11 outings, including more than one long ball in four of his last six.
Since April 15th, his home runs per nine of 2.03 is the second highest rate of any qualified pitcher behind only Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs.
Early told reporters after Sunday's loss that a full season is gonna be ups and downs, so it's just about how he can respond to that being the biggest thing.
Well, he'll enter Saturday night against the Seattle Mariners with a pretty favorable matchup against a lineup that struggles mightily when facing lefties.
They're one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranking in the bottom two in the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage, while their 76 runs scored against self-pause is tied for the third fewest in baseball.
In addition to the Mariners' struggles against lefties, Early will also have the benefit of taking the mound in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the league, Seattle's T-Mobile Park, which since 2023 is tied with Texas' Globe Life Field as the most pitcher-friendly environment in baseball with a park factor of 92.
After 10 dominant starts, it's clear the league has started to adjust to the lefty, and it's time for him to take the next step in his development and adjust back.
