World Cup Quarterfinals: Predictions & Betting Insights
Joe and Tom break down the latest odds to win the World Cup, with Spain and France topping the betting markets. They also discuss the prediction markets.
Video Transcript
As we're here into the quarterfinals, Tom, any shock to you?
Do you think that it goes chalk from here on out?
j- is there gonna be an upset somewhere along the way?
Probably not.
You know, we're looking at the England, Norway as more of a coin flip where we have, I would say, decently heavy favorites in the other three match-ups.
People expect Argentina to get past Switzerland.
You know, Argentina did look pretty shaky.
you know, going, going deep in the last two games, Switzerland is a very good fundamental team.
You know, Joe, the question I have for you is, you know, I've talked about it with you before, I have a Morocco ticket in pocket since I've had since December.
I have them at 98 to 1 to win the World Cup.
It's not just about advancing to, it's winning it all.
You know, do I hedge, is my question to you.
Would you hedge it at, you know, 98 to 1?
And granted, they could win this match-up against France, and then they lose the next round, and it or they lose in the finals, it doesn't matter.
But I could hedge, you know, directly if I get to the finals.
Would you put something on France at this point on the three-way money line?
To advance money l- to advance to the next round is minus 400.
I think that's just untenable at a certain point.
It is, but you know, this is a perfect situation, Tom, which is why I love the prediction markets.
Right.
Because the prediction markets offer you the opportunity, you're holding a ticket that the outcome has to come to fruition for you to get paid on that ticket, right?
Right.
So Morocco has to win it all in order for you to win.
Not so much in the prediction markets, 'cause I, you're betting the re-pricing, right?
So do the math.
Find out where France is right now, because obviously Morocco does not win.
You don't win that ticket.
But- Correct if they do win, you still got that ticket, and right now you can probably get France at a pretty decent price to hedge it.
And then- you don't have to like France to win it all.
Sure.
You just want France to win enough games that you can make money on top of that as well if they go, and you can sell off at any time.
So- Right the prediction markets give hedging opportunities for somebody in your spot all day long, which is why I love it, 'cause you don't have to, you don't need it to come to fruition.
You don't need the outcome.
You just need it to keep re-pricing for you to be able- to make some money there.
I don't hate Morocco.
I don't know that England is winning either- tell you the truth.
That's another game coming up here in the next couple of days here.
Yes, they have obviously Mr. Kane there, but I don't know.
Something tells me I think England could be in trouble.
I think we're gonna have a few games where we're gonna go, "Wow, I did not see that coming."
And I think Norway advancing, best goalie, maybe the best player in, in the World Cup.
Man, it wouldn't shock me if Norway gets past England and makes a run at this.
Right, and you know, I, I think you and I are both high on Spain.
I think that'd be one of the cleaner match-ups of the teams to get through.
Yeah.
You know, we talked about it the other day when we were live for Argentina, and their comeback victory against Egypt.
They looked pretty gassed at the end of that second half, playing a lot of minutes dating back to the game la- over the weekend, versus Cape Verde when they had to go a full 120, and then obviously, you know, this comeback win.
Yeah.
So the way Switzerland plays, I think will, will cause them some issues.
It- it's gonna frustrate them a, a lot, and I, seeing Norway advance I don't think should shock anyone at this point.
If you are doubting what Norway can do and fully believing in England, you're looking at it wrong
