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'A volatile job': Guardians had MLB's best bullpen in 2024. Can they repeat it in 2025?
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- 'A volatile job': Guardians had MLB's best bullpen in 2024. Can they repeat it in 2025?
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — The Guardians had baseball's best bullpen in 2024 . The problem when looking forward? Bullpens are the most difficult group to predict year to year. And the Guardians are acting accordingly.
Bullpen performance can be volatile. It's part of the reason why contending teams load up on relievers at the trade deadline. And it's part of the reason why, even with MLB's best unit a year ago, the Guardians have continued to add to that group this offseason.
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In 2024, the Guardians bullpen led baseball in fWAR (7.7, well above Miami in second place at 7.0), ERA (2.57, the only team under 3.00), FIP (3.30) and Win Probability Added (14.88, one of only two teams above 7.0).
Four relievers ( Emmanuel Clase , Cade Smith , Hunter Gaddis , Tim Herrin ) posted a 2.00 ERA or better with at least 70 appearances. Although the rotation struggled both to stay healthy and with consistency, the bullpen carried it.
The Guardians had the best WPA and the fourth-best ERA for any bullpen in the game since 2000. And, yet, as the Guardians went to work this offseason, the pitching staff as a whole — including the bullpen — was the clear No. 1 focus when adding to the roster. In the rotation, the Guardians added Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi in trades, the latter of whom could also factor into the bullpen picture.
Guardians manager Stephen Vogt calls to the bullpen during the third inning against the Minnesota Twins, Sept. 16, 2024, in Cleveland.
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Paul Sewald was signed to a one-year deal that includes $7 million in guarantees plus a mutual option for 2026. J akob Junis was signed to a one-year, $4.5 million deal just before camp opened. The club confirmed the Junis deal Sunday.
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It's simply difficult to really predict, with an equal amount of certainty as other position groups, how a bullpen might evolve from year to year. It's one of the truths of baseball. With relievers, there's an added element of "hold your breath and hope."
"It's such a volatile job," said Guardians manager Stephen Vogt , who could be considered an expert on the topic as a former catcher and bullpen coach. "You come in, you throw a clean inning, no one talks about you. You come in, you give up one run, you didn't do your job. It's a really tough situation to come into."
Numbers for relievers can also be noisier, in a way. With fewer innings and a smaller sample size, one bad outing can drastically change a reliever's stat line, skewing the perception of how he's performed. Former Cleveland reliever Bryan Shaw was a prime example of this, as he had a few occasions of not allowing a run for roughly six weeks of work only to have his numbers torpedoed by a three-run home run or a grand slam.
"You have a reliever who has an outing early in the year and gives up three runs, it takes them three months to get their numbers back down to where they want them to be," Vogt said. "So it can get skewed."
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But it isn't just statistical variation.
Relievers, more than other position groups, also see a larger share of their overall work on the mound during live games. Starters have more off-day sessions to work on things. Hitters can add some time in the batting cages. But relievers for the most part need to save their bullets, so there isn't always as much room for error when needing to make adjustments, and seasons can fall off the rails a bit quicker.
"We don't have the ability to really practice," Sewald said. "I have no hits in the major leagues, so I'm not saying that it's easier to hit, but you can try to make adjustments. As a relief pitcher, it's very hard to make adjustments. I can't go out with [pitching coach Carl Willis] and throw a million pitches until I figure out my slider. My arm just can't do that."
As Vogt noted, even if pitchers can work on things between games, they still likely need to be available to pitch that night or the next night, so they can't overdo it and really let things rip. It'd be like a golfer going to the driving range with seven golf balls and hoping that was enough practice to figure things out — and anyone who really golfs will laugh at that notion.
Cleveland Guardians relief pitcher Cade Smith (36) pitches against the Detroit Tigers in Game 4 of the ALDS on Oct. 10, 2024, in Detroit, Michigan.
Guardians bullpen has heavy competition as spring training camp 2025 opens
The Guardians opened camp with Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin, Sewald and Junis likely to have spots locked down. Andrew Walters and Erik Sabrowski should have inside tracks to the final two spots. Franco Aleman and Nic Enright are already on the 40-man roster. Luis Frias and Parker Mushinski are also in camp as non-roster invitees. Cecconi and others in the rotation race could potentially join the mix.
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But Clase, Smith, Gaddis and Herrin, especially, all threw a high number of innings in 2024 when including the postseason, in which the Guardians had to rely heavily on their bullpen to advance to the ALCS , where they finished three wins short of the World Series.
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The higher number of innings could lead to some restricted spring training camps in which the Guardians aim to be cautious with their league-best bullpen.
That title, though, belonged to the Guardians in 2024. The 2025 season brings with it no such promises considering the volatility of those units. But if Cleveland is to repeat as American League Central champ in what projects to be a razor-thin divisional race, it might have to break that trend.
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Cleveland Guardians add Paul Sewald, Jakob Junis to 2025 bullpen
