2011.01.29
カテゴリ： カテゴリ未分類
エジプトで独裁体制に対する反発が高まっていることをアメリカ政府も当然、理解していた。アメリカにとって受け入れられない体制が出現することは絶対に阻止したいと思えば、既存の体制に見切りをつけ、新たな「親米体制」を作り上げることも必要になる。
そうした準備が遅くとも2008年に始まっていることを示す文書が公開された。（注） この年の12月、「4月6日運動」なる団体のリーダーがワイントンDCでアメリカ政府の高官やシンクタンクの人間と会っている のである。例によって、高学歴の若者にアメリカの支配層は「保険」をかけていたわけだ。
今回の抗議行動でも、こうしたアメリカの息のかかった「反体制派」が新たな支配層を形成するようにとアメリカ政府は考えているようだが、エジプト民衆の怒りがこうしたアメリカ側のシナリオで納まるかどうかは不明だ。
（注）
VZCZCXRO6679
¶1. (C) Summary and comment: On December 23, April 6 activist
XXXXXXXXXXXX expressed satisfaction with his participation in
the December 3-5 "Alliance of Youth Movements Summit," and
with his subsequent meetings with USG officials, on Capitol
Hill, and with think tanks. He described how State Security
(SSIS) detained him at the Cairo airport upon his return and
confiscated his notes for his summit presentation calling for
democratic change in Egypt, and his schedule for his
Congressional meetings. XXXXXXXXXXXX contended that the GOE will never undertake
significant reform, and therefore, Egyptians
need to replace the current regime with a parliamentary
democracy. He alleged that several opposition parties and
movements have accepted an unwritten plan for democratic
transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim. XXXXXXXXXXXX
said that although SSIS recently released two April 6
activists, it also arrested three additional group members.
We have pressed the MFA for the release of these April 6
activists. April 6's stated goal of replacing the current
regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011
presidential elections is highly unrealistic, and is not
supported by the mainstream opposition. End summary and
comment.
そうした準備が遅くとも2008年に始まっていることを示す文書が公開された。（注） この年の12月、「4月6日運動」なる団体のリーダーがワイントンDCでアメリカ政府の高官やシンクタンクの人間と会っている のである。例によって、高学歴の若者にアメリカの支配層は「保険」をかけていたわけだ。
今回の抗議行動でも、こうしたアメリカの息のかかった「反体制派」が新たな支配層を形成するようにとアメリカ政府は考えているようだが、エジプト民衆の怒りがこうしたアメリカ側のシナリオで納まるかどうかは不明だ。
（注）
VZCZCXRO6679
¶1. (C) Summary and comment: On December 23, April 6 activist
XXXXXXXXXXXX expressed satisfaction with his participation in
the December 3-5 "Alliance of Youth Movements Summit," and
with his subsequent meetings with USG officials, on Capitol
Hill, and with think tanks. He described how State Security
(SSIS) detained him at the Cairo airport upon his return and
confiscated his notes for his summit presentation calling for
democratic change in Egypt, and his schedule for his
Congressional meetings. XXXXXXXXXXXX contended that the GOE will never undertake
significant reform, and therefore, Egyptians
need to replace the current regime with a parliamentary
democracy. He alleged that several opposition parties and
movements have accepted an unwritten plan for democratic
transition by 2011; we are doubtful of this claim. XXXXXXXXXXXX
said that although SSIS recently released two April 6
activists, it also arrested three additional group members.
We have pressed the MFA for the release of these April 6
activists. April 6's stated goal of replacing the current
regime with a parliamentary democracy prior to the 2011
presidential elections is highly unrealistic, and is not
supported by the mainstream opposition. End summary and
comment.
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2011.01.31 16:49:55
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