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2005.01.31

日米通貨当局の思惑

ドミンゲスの中間試験最後の問題。
Over the course of the first four months of this year the value of the U.S. dollar fell by over 40% relative to the Japanese yen. Starting in May, the dollar gradually strengthened against the yen, and the current dollar-yen rate is now approximately back to the level it started at in the beginning of the year. This question asks you to consider the monetary and intervention policies that were available to the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Fed in April when the dollar was at its lowest value relative to the yen. (NOTE: Do not tell me what the BOJ and Fed actually did; tell me what they could have done given the objectives described below and what you know about the relationship between monetary policy, intervention policy and exchange rates.) Provide short-run analyses assuming prices are (temporarily) fixed.

(a) Assume that the BOJ wants to reduce the value of the yen relative to the dollar, what monetary policy actions can they take to accomplish this? Provide step-by-step details on how the BOJ monetary policy change will lead to a change in the dollar-yen exchange rate.

(b) Assume that the Fed also wants to reduce the value of the yen relative to the dollar, what monetary policy actions can they take to accomplish this? Provide step-by-step details on how the Fed monetary policy change will lead to a change in the dollar-yen exchange rate.

(c) Assume that both the BOJ and the Fed want to reduce the value of the yen relative to the dollar, but they also do not want to change the size of their respective monetary bases. How might both central banks intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to influence the dollar-yen exchange rate without changing their respective monetary bases. Describe in details how the Fed and the BOJ intervention operations will lead to a change in the dollar-yen exchange rate.

この問題だけは、現実に即した応用問題のようになっている。止まらない円高ドル安に日米の中央銀行はどう対処するのかについて答える問題だ。

（a）では、日銀がドル高円安にしたいと考えている。円の価値を減らすには、日本国内のベースマネーを増やせばいい。円がたくさん市場に出回れば、つまりインフレに動けば、カネの価値がそれだけ減るからだ。そのためには、買いオペ、利下げ（貸し出しをしやすくすること）、預金準備率引き下げの三つの方法がある。

また短期的には、ベースマネーの拡大は流動性効果により金利の低下につながる。日本の金利低下は、もし米国の金利がそのままなら、円の価値を減ずるので円安ドル高に働く。

また短期的には、ベースマネーの縮小は流動性効果により金利の上昇につながる。米国の金利上昇は、もし日本の金利がそのままなら、ドルの価値を高めるのでドル高円安に働く。

（ｃ）の答えはまた明日。

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