OSSANPOWERのバリュー投資

The Fed Has Been Wrong About the Yield Curve Before

• February 1989 (17 months before recession):  “The yield curve either in the United States or elsewhere has not been a reliable indicator of future inflation. Indeed, the evidence seems to cut the other way. And if it has not been a reliable indicator of future inflation and most recessions are inflation-induced, I am not prepared to bet the mortgage on the signals that the yield curve are giving off right now.” —  Federal Reserve Bank of New York President E. Gerald Corrigan 
• March 2000 (12 months before recession):  “The changed supply outlook for Treasurys has introduced a fair amount of noise into the Treasury yield curve.” —  System Open Market Account Manager Peter Fisher 
• February 2007 (10 months before recession):  “Declines in the term premium and perhaps a great deal of saving chasing a limited number of investment opportunities around the world have led to a somewhat permanent flattening or even inversion of the yield curve, and that pattern does not necessarily predict a slowing in the economy or recession.” —  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke 
• June 2018:  “There’s the term premium, which has been very low by historical standards. And so arguments are made that a flatter yield curve has less of a signal embedded in it.” —  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell 
• September 2018:  “In thinking about the historical experience of the yield curve, we do have to be cautious about applying it to this current situation. We and other central banks around the world have taken aggressive actions to buy lots of long-term assets, which has arguably pushed down the term premium, or the yield, on 10-year Treasurys.” —  Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams