Week 1 Fantasy QB Rankings: Stats, Matchup Analysis for Best Fantasy QBs This Week

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Week 1 Fantasy QB Rankings: Stats, Matchup Analysis for Best Fantasy QBs This Week

Matt Johnson · Sportsnaut

Mon, Sep 1, 2025 ·

9 min read

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A new season in the National Football League has arrived, with Week 1 kicking off and action spread throughout the end of the week from Thursday through Monday. Now that the NFL season is here, it's time for our weekly fantasy QB rankings.

Let's dive into our in-depth Week 1 fantasy QB rankings, providing some NFL stats and matchup analysis that helped determine where each signal-caller landed in our Week 1 fantasy rankings .

1. Jalen Hurts , Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts posted a 115.0 QB rating, 70 percent completion rate and scored 4 total touchdowns in two games against the Dallas Cowboys defense in 2024. If that's not enough to entice you, as noted by Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com , the Cowboys had the best defense in the NFL over the last four seasons when Micah Parsons was on the field and the league's worst defense when he was sidelined. While regular-season openers always see offenses come out a bit sluggish, we feel great about the Eagles and the other circumstances put him atop our Week 1 fantasy QB rankings.

2. Joe Burrow , Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns

There are two concerns we have with this matchup that prevent Joe Burrow from sitting atop our fantasy QB rankings for Week 1. First, the Cleveland Browns have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, which could create an unfavorable game script where Burrow doesn't get to keep slinging the ball in a shootout. Second, the Cincinnati Bengals offensive line is outmatched against Myles Garrett and Mason Graham . Even with that said, we still trust Burrow as one of the best fantasy quarterbacks. His numbers in 2024 against Cleveland—5-0 TD-INT and 216.5 passing yards per game—show he can still put up strong numbers.

3. Lamar Jackson , Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a 90.7 QB rating with a 3-2 TD-INT line, 127 rushing yards and 1 touchdown in his last two regular-season matchups against the Buffalo Bills defense. He's also historically been a hot starter, posting a 104.0 QB rating with a 35-9 TD-INT ratio and averaging 61.5 rushing yards per game in September in 24 career starts. Baltimore's offense is returning the majority of its starters and with there being some lingering questions about the Bills' defense, Jackson should post a strong line.

4. Josh Allen , Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's defense has had Josh Allen's number in the regular season throughout his career. In four career starts versus the Ravens, Allen has a 48.7 percent completion rate with a 66.3 QB rating, and he's averaged just 153.3 passing yards per game. Even in the playoff matchup—127 passing yards and an 86.7 QB rating—two rushing touchdowns were the only real impact Allen made. Talent still places him high, but there's a real chance his worst performance of the season comes in Week 1.

5. Baker Mayfield , Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Even without wide receiver Chris Godwin and left tackle Tristan Wirfs , this matchup places Baker Mayfield near the top of our Week 1 fantasy QB rankings. The Atlanta Falcons defense has struggled to generate pressure for years and will be reliant on rookies this season. It's that inability to pressure Mayfield that helped him throw six touchdowns and average 255 passing yards per game against Atlanta's defense last season. In what we project to be a relatively high-scoring opener, Mayfield is poised to deliver some of the best NFL passing stats in Week 1.

6. Jayden Daniels , Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

The New York Giants defense isn't going to be as bad as the unit the football world watched last season. In his first two career starts against New York, quarterback Jayden Daniels completed 74.5 percent of his passes, threw 2 touchdowns and totaled 79 rushing yards. One year later, New York has one of the best defensive lines in the league and it added cornerback Paulson Adebo this offseason to strengthen the secondary. With the Giants' offense likely to struggle in the regular-season opener, there just won't be quite as many opportunities for Daniels to put up gaudy stats.

7. Bo Nix , Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans

We're fully convinced that Bo Nix can consistently be one of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks this season. In his last 10 regular-season games as a rookie operating the Denver Broncos offense, Nix averaged 252.9 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game, completing 69.7 percent of his passes and adding a modest 17.5 rushing yards per game. In Week 1, he faces a Tennessee Titans defense that allowed the ninth-most points per drive (2.26) and had the seventh-highest red-zone touchdown rate (63.2 percent) in the NFL last season.

8. Kyler Murray , Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

It's a make-or-break year for quarterback Kyler Murray. The Arizona Cardinals have provided him with both a top-10 rushing attack and a solid offensive line, along with two high-end receiving threats. Murray also draws a favorable matchup to kick off his 2025 campaign, squaring off against a New Orleans Saints defense that allowed 237 passing yards per game and 11 passing touchdowns in its final eight contests of 2024. There's no excuse for Murray to underperform, and this could be the beginning of his bounce-back season.

9. Patrick Mahomes , Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

From Weeks 5 to 17 without Rashee Rice , Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes averaged a modest 1.7 touchdowns per game with a 67.2 percent completion rate and 252 passing yards per game. Against Jesse Minter's defense, Mahomes had a 2-1 TD-INT ratio and averaged just 227.5 passing yards per game against the Los Angeles Chargers . With Mahomes also adjusting to two new starters on the left side of his offensive line, we believe his ceiling won't be very high in a game played in Brazil on Friday night.

10. Trevor Lawrence , Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers

We're fairly confident in Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coe getting Trevor Lawrence back on track. The veteran quarterback might never become the player he was hyped up to be as a prospect, but he can still be an above-average starter who thrives when the circumstances are right. Jacksonville has provided Lawrence with a great tandem at wide receiver, and this matchup against the Carolina Panthers defense—which allowed the most passing touchdowns (34) in 2024—provides a golden opportunity for Lawrence to start with a bang.

11. Drake Maye , New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders

There's certainly going to be some level of volatility with Drake Maye this season, in large part due to a shaky offensive line and below-average receiving corps. The New England Patriots won't get Stefon Diggs at 100 percent in Week 1, but we still like this matchup because the Las Vegas Raiders have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Maxx Crosby will cause some trouble off the edge, but Maye can rush for 20-30 yards and take advantage of Raiders' cornerbacks, who are prone to lapses in coverage.

12. Jared Goff , Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

Fortunately for Jared Goff, the Green Bay Packers will have Micah Parsons on a snap count in Week 1. That bodes well for a quarterback who threw 4 touchdowns and posted a 4-1 TD-INT ratio with a 79.4 percent completion rate against Green Bay in two starts last season. However, a majority of those numbers came in a 34-31 shootout, and we do not anticipate either of these offenses putting up a ton of points. Goff doesn't have a ton of upside, but we feel safe calling him a top-12 option for Week 1.

13. Tua Tagovailoa , Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a strong stretch in his final six regular-season games last season, averaging 285.3 passing yards and 2.2 passing touchdowns per game with a 73.3 percent completion rate. The trouble for Miami in Week 1 is that the Indianapolis Colts have a strong defensive line and added a No. 1 cornerback ( Charvarius Ward ) this offseason. We anticipate an effective game from Tagovailoa – 175-plus yards and 1 touchdown – but think Mike McDaniel tries to get the run game going early in the season.

14. C.J. Stroud , Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams

C.J. Stroud could prove to be one of the most underrated quarterbacks in fantasy football this season. Unfortunately, we don't anticipate that being reflected in Week 1 versus the Los Angeles Rams . That's, of course, because the Houston Texans have easily one of the worst NFL offensive lines in 2025 . Awful pass protection and no ground game to speak of is the last thing you want when facing Jared Verse , Braden Fiske , Kobie Turner and Poona Ford .

15. Justin Herbert , Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Losing Rashawn Slater to a season-ending injury before Week 1, forcing Joe Alt to move to left tackle, created more concerns with the Los Angeles Chargers' offensive line. To make matters worse for Justin Herbert, he's facing a Kansas City Chiefs defense that limited him to just 2 combined touchdowns and 196 passing yards per game in their two meetings last season. Making the trip to Brazil, our expectations for the Chargers' offense are fairly low and Herbert could easily finish this one under 200 yards with just a single touchdown.

16. Michael Penix Jr , Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There's a bit of elevated concern with Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr because his blindside protector, Kaleb McGary , is out for the season. However, the second-year passer does have some great offensive weapons around him. We're expecting this matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be one of the highest-scoring games in Week 1, offering an avenue to top-10 upside for Penix. However, there's an elevated risk of a dud performance here because Penix has a penchant for turnovers and he is still largely unproven.

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