SMU-Florida State preview: Mustangs to upset the 'Noles?
Josh Pate breaks down why the SMU-Florida State Monday night game could be closer than many expect -- and how the game hinges on whether the Seminoles run game against SMU's rebuilt defensive front, plus how much FSU's Ashton Daniels will be asked to throw. Subscribe to "Josh Pate's College Football Show" on YouTube .
Video Transcript
Make sure by 7:30 Eastern Time you got a TV around you, 'cause SMU is headed to Florida State, and this is the number two team versus the number 10 team in the ACC odds.
So you might think to yourself, "Oh plus, I saw Florida State struggling against New Mexico State.
Blowout incoming."
Yeah, the line is two and a half.
So, FanDuel, if you have information that this is gonna be a blowout, is offering you a golden investment opportunity on SMU, and they're, they're just mocking you at two and a half.
Not three and a half, two and a half.
So how does this game go?
SMU is replacing both coordinators.
If you wanna know what could make this line lower, well, SMU hadn't played a game yet, first off, and they're going into the building of someone who has already played a game.
As I said, SMU is replacing both coordinators.
They infused a ton of portal pieces.
Again, opening on the road.
Rhett Lashlee apparently believes they should be seven to 10-point underdogs, and Rhett Lashlee has never told a lie.
We do not have him on record as ever having told a lie, so it's gotta be true.
So how much does the quarterback edge here actually exist, and how much does it just slap me in the face when I'm watching this game?
'Cause Kevin Jennings is a stud.
Ashton Daniels is the starting quarterback for Florida State.
No, no further adjectives at this time.
But is it so different, like is it so distinct that you watch it in retrospect and say, "I can't believe I got fooled into thinking Florida State could hang in this game"?
So that comes down to me to how much Mike Norvell and his offensive staff have to ask Ashton Daniels to do, 'cause a couple of different ways that I kinda think this could go is, number one, maybe that SMU defensive front that's been totally rebuilt is a little bit shaky.
If-- Even if it rounds into form later, maybe it's a little bit shaky out of the gate, because they were 19th against the run last year, and they got a lot of new pieces there this year.
And if Chroma, the guys can get going, maybe Wisner's involved there, that's a workable plan, 'cause that involves Ashton Daniels throwing it, like, 20 to 25 times instead of 40 to 45 times, and y- you get Duce Robinson a little bit more involved, 'cause he was practically a ghost in the week zero game against New Mexico State.
SMU, it would be fair to say they're questionable at corner.
Not weak, questionable at corner.
That's one way it could go.
That's the hopeful way.
That's the upset is very much in the cards way, and it would be a mild upset.
But that, that would kind of explain why that line looks the way it looks.
Of course, there's another way it could go, and to me, the key there is how FSU's defensive front sort of affects Jennings, because SMU's got a pretty veteran offensive line.
And Kevin Jennings with time, based on what I saw New Mexico State able to do, namely just getting open against Florida State, and that was pre-, DB injury, based on what they were able to do, I'm pretty sure SMU could do some work against FSU secondary if Jennings has a whole lot of time to throw.
And if that happens, then that disproportionately bends us towards a game script where FSU has to play from behind, which means Ashton Daniels has to throw the ball a lot.
And, very unfortunate paper popper stat here, Daniels has 45 turnover worthy plays to 25 touchdown passes as of late.
Not this year.
Of course, that would be a record.
So consider the impact on the ACC in this game
