26 Red Sox predictions for 2026, including big trades, a Roman Anthony breakout and a no-hitter?

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26 Red Sox predictions for 2026, including big trades, a Roman Anthony breakout and a no-hitter?

Chris Cotillo · MassLive

Mon, Jan 5, 2026 ·

13 min read

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It’s 2026, which means it’s time for everyone to turn the page and start fresh. That includes the Red Sox , who have already added Willson Contreras , Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo this winter, making nearly a dozen trades — yet still not signing a free agent to a major league contract.

A year ago, I made 25 predictions for the 2025 Red Sox and they turned out to be... well, there were lots of hits and lots of misses. Last week, I reviewed how those went . Now, it’s time to look ahead to the upcoming year with 26 predictions for the 2026 club.

An annual reminder: These are predictions in the truest sense — guesses more than anything. Though it’s fair to sometimes feel pretty informed about things considering I cover the team as a full-time job, this is meant to be a fun exercise instead of hard-core reporting. Expect some of these to come true and some to be way off. We’ll circle back at the end of the year to see how they all went.

In 2026...

1. The Red Sox will enter spring training without having traded out of their outfield logjam.

Entering the offseason, it seemed like just a matter of time before the Red Sox traded an outfielder (likely Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu ) in an effort to bulk up another area of the roster and solve their outfield logjam. Now, though, it appears Craig Breslow might be comfortable having Duran, Abreu, Roman Anthony and Ceddanne Rafaela all on the roster come Opening Day. If the price continues to not be met, those four players will all be in the mix, with someone getting designated hitter at-bats on a daily basis. It’s a good problem to have, as evidenced by the fact Boston had Nate Eaton starting postseason games in October after Anthony’s season-ending injury.

2. Either Alex Bregman or Bo Bichette is signed before Opening Day.

We saw a year ago that big additions can happen in mid-February, and while it might not take that long for Breslow this time around, it’s clear he still wants to add a significant bat before Opening Day. The top two fits at this point appear to be two free agents (Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette) but it’ll likely come down to whether or not the Red Sox are willing to get uncomfortable with contract length. If neither of those guys signs, where would they pivot? It feels like a necessity to add either Bregman or Bichette .

3. Marcelo Mayer is in the Opening Day lineup.

It’s tough to count on Mayer, who has dealt with season-ending injuries too many times in the last few years. But assuming he’s fully recovered from August wrist surgery, he’s a good bet to be in the Opening Day lineup, either at second base or third base. If the Sox sign Bregman, expect Mayer to play a lot of second. If Bichette or another second base option comes aboard, Mayer proved plenty capable at third. His versatility will help the roster.

4. Boston has very few — or zero — position players debut in 2026.

In 2025, the Sox saw Kristian Campbell , Mayer, Roman Anthony and Jhostynxon Garcia make their much-anticipated major league debuts. This year, there’s not a blue-chip position player left in the system. Someone like former first rounder Mikey Romero could come up in a pinch, but the intriguing debuts will likely come on the mound. Jake Bennett, David Sandlin and others are more likely to make an impact.

5. Either Connelly Early or Payton Tolle begins the season in Triple-A.

Spring training rotation injuries are inevitable, but it’s not a lock that the Red Sox view Early and Tolle as must-haves in their Opening Day rotation. Just because they reached the majors last fall doesn’t mean they’re finished products who are finished with development. Having Garrett Crochet , Gray, Oviedo, Brayan Bello , Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval in the mix lessens the need for an immediate impact from the youngsters, though they’ll play a big role at some point, barring trades.

6. Kutter Crawford throws more than 120 innings — and is pretty good, too.

No one on the roster seems more of a forgotten man than Crawford, who might have taken a big step forward in 2025 had he not lost the entire season to injuries, including a lingering knee issue and a freak accident with his wris t. But he did lead the club in innings in 2024 (183 ⅔) and is a capable major league pitcher. Expect a big bounce-back year from the soon-to-be 30-year-old.

7. Wilyer Abreu makes his first All-Star team.

Abreu is another breakout candidate, and it seems like the Red Sox think so, too, as they plan on having him start against left-handed pitchers . If Abreu can stay healthy and get hot early in the year, he’s a prime candidate to be an All-Star for the first time. His career high in plate appearances is 447, set two years ago. Expect him to eclipse that if he can stay on the field.

8. Masataka Yoshida is off the roster by Opening Day.

I write this prediction every year. It never happens. But if the Red Sox don’t trade an outfielder, it’s almost impossible to see Yoshida having a spot on the team, especially with Triston Casas also looking for at-bats behind Contreras in the first base/DH mix. If the Red Sox can find a club to take on some of Yoshida’s contract in a trade, it would be a huge win.

9. Craig Breslow makes a notable external addition to the front office.

Breslow hasn’t committed to hiring a general manager to be his clear No. 2 and it seems like Paul Toboni would have been that person had he not left for Washington. The Sox haven’t added anyone to replace Toboni in the top tier of assistants but might still do so. They’d benefit from an experienced executive from the outside.

10. The first major league free agent signing comes in the form of a veteran reliever.

Clubs might have to wait a little bit for decisions from top free agents like Bregman and Bichette but the relief market is picked over, meaning only a few guys left out there are going to get major league deals. The Red Sox should sign one of them, whether in the form of a reunion with Justin Wilson or a flier on a veteran like Ryne Stanek , Danny Coulombe , Tyler Kinley , Pierce Johnson , Seranthony Dominguez or Michael Kopech .

11. Aroldis Chapman takes an inevitable step back in 2026 — as does the bullpen as a whole.

Chapman could take a step back from his dominant 2025 season and still be an All-Star. That’s how good he was. But it’s not realistic to expect him to pitch at the same level he did. There will be bumps in the road for the lefty, who will pitch next year at age 38. And considering the turnover and lack of additions to this point, it’s reasonable to expect the group to regress after posting the second-best ERA in the majors (3.41) last year.

12. A former Red Sox prospect has a big breakout year for another team.

Breslow has traded so many players that at this point, it seems inevitable one of them turns into a real star. Kyle Teel is a clear candidate in Chicago , but Braden Montgomery (also in the Crochet trade) could debut in 2026 and be even better. Between Teel and Montgomery, Hunter Dobbins , Jhostynxon Garcia, Richard Fitts and others, someone is going to be a painful watch from afar. Even Vaughn Grissom could carve out a nice role for himself with the lowly Angels.

13. The Red Sox continue their pattern of handing out early extensions by getting one done around Opening Day.

Every team tries to lock up young players on early extensions and the Red Sox have made a habit of doing so in the last two years, signing Rafaela and Bello two years ago and Crochet, Campbell and Anthony in 2025. They’ll stay aggressive and get another deal done in spring training. Tolle and Early are interesting candidates but might want to wait. Carlos Narváez seems like a realistic target. Abreu is also someone who could be in the mix for a deal. Don’t expect Mayer, with his injury history, to get one done.

14. The Willson Contreras trade works out great for the Red Sox, but the Sonny Gray deal does not.

Contreras has a real chance of leading Boston in homers, using his pull-side power to rack them up at home and surpass his career total of 24. He’ll turn into a stabilizing force in the middle of the lineup. Gray, his former Cardinals teammate, has all the ingredients to be a running mate to Crochet in the rotation but will be a little bit of a disappointment. The true No. 2 in the rotation will be found elsewhere among the internal options.

15. Garrett Crochet takes a no-hitter into the ninth inning (at least).

Crochet is the type of starter who seems to have no-hit stuff in most of his outings, and in 2026, he’ll have a real chance at Boston’s first no-no since Jon Lester ’s in 2008. With so much swing-and-miss in today’s game, Crochet will have one particularly dominant outing at some point when the weather warms up and either finish off a no-hitter or come super close.

16. Brayan Bello is traded.

This probably won’t happen before Opening Day, but feels plausible at the deadline or in an early-winter trade a year from now. It’s not hard to see Tolle, Early and others emerging as consistent big leaguers and forcing the Red Sox to consider moving Bello in a trade to fortify another area of their roster. His remaining contract, including 2026, covers four years at $50.5 million with a club option for 2030.. Any team can afford that, especially for a 26-year-old (27 in May) with big league success. It’s a very interesting year for Bello, whose 2025 ended on a sour note when he was lifted after just 28 pitches in his playoff debut .

17. The Red Sox announce that they’ve been awarded an All-Star Game.

Sam Kennedy has wanted this for a long time and it’s clear talks are focused on 2029 which would represent the 30-year anniversary of the 1999 All-Star Game. With three years until that date, a formal announcement could come this season. A lot of it is related to development in the Fenway neigborhood .

18. Zack Kelly puts it all together and emerges as a big bullpen weapon.

The Red Sox believe Kelly has some of the very best stuff in the organization. They have been trying to get him to limit walks for years. A strong end to 2025 could propel Kelly into a big role that turns him from a depth option into a bullpen force.

19. The early returns on the Johan Oviedo for Jhostynxon Garcia trade are not good.

The Red Sox paid a high price for Oviedo by shipping “The Password” to Pittsburgh , where the outfielder should get an opportunity to play. Boston has high hopes for Oviedo but there’s a chance he’s no more than back-end depth. Garcia could pile up the homers for the Pirates while Oviedo struggles. Remember the outrage over Travis Shaw after the Tyler Thornburg trade?

20. Boston adds a major league catcher at some point.

Whether due to Carlos Narváez regressing a bit, Connor Wong not bouncing back after a very tough 2025 or injury, the Red Sox will add a (somewhat impactful) catcher to the big league roster. They’ve been in the market for one over the last few months, inquiring on the Dodgers ’ Dalton Rushing , Teel and others. A trade deadline addition makes sense.

21. Kristian Campbell shows signs of life as a useful player riding the Worcester shuttle.

Campbell’s bizarre 2025 won’t be repeated, but it’s hard to envision a full year in the big leagues for him in 2026. The Sox clearly want him in the outfield on a full-time basis, which limits the path to major league at-bats. His development will continue in a year split between Triple-A and the majors and there will be signs of improvement.

22. Trevor Story ’s workload takes a hit.

Story was a great, well, story, in 2025, when he bounced back from a few injury-plagued seasons to play 157 games. This year, though, that number will decrease either because of a minor injury or Alex Cora trying to pick times to get Story off his feet with Mayer shifting to shortstop as a very capable fill-in. As Story ages, a high workload isn’t sustainable. Look for the Red Sox to find ways to get him off his feet in 2026.

23. Discord between the Red Sox and Triston Casas leads to a trade.

Casas is a bright individual who understands why the Red Sox needed to bring someone like Contreras in to play first base. He’ll likely say as much Saturday at Fenway Fest. Still, if healthy, Casas is too talented to play at Triple-A or be in a bench role. A strong spring training or first-half performance in an imperfect role could lead to Casas being a pretty good trade candidate at 26.

24. Roman Anthony is a top-three AL MVP finisher.

There’s virtually nothing, outside of another freak injury, that suggests Anthony isn’t going to be a bonafide superstar, and soon. He’ll show no signs of a sophomore slump and be one of the very best players in the American League in 2026. His next step involves hitting for more power in the big leagues, something the Sox think is an inevitability.

25. The Red Sox will retire someone’s number.

I’m doubling down on this, which didn’t come true when I predicted it a year ago. It’s time, though, for someone to be honored in this way. Dustin Pedroia ’s No. 15 could be next. Tim Wakefield’s No. 49, even posthumously, is a great option. Roger Clemens’ No. 21 is overdue. And don’t discount No. 24 (Dwight Evans) or No. 43 (Dennis Eckersley), either.

26. Boston competes for the AL East title and goes deeper in the postseason than it did in 2025.

It’s impossible to forecast exactly how deep the 2026 Red Sox will go in the postseason with the roster still incomplete. But the group should win more than 90 games and make a real run at the division. A run to the ALDS — either through a bye or by winning a Wild Card Series — should be the floor for this group. You don’t have to squint hard to envision a run to the ALCS, but that path would have been easier if the Orioles and Blue Jays hadn’t gone big this winter. Boston’s season will depend, in large part, on young, internal options taking steps forward.

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