Ranking candidates’ chances to replace Hubert Davis at UNC

There is a job opening in Chapel Hill after North Carolina fired Hubert Davis on Tuesday night.

It’s a seismic moment for North Carolina. One of college basketball’s biggest brands is not only looking for a new coach, but also looking for someone who is not tied to Dean Smith or a UNC in general for the first time since 1952 , when the school hired Frank McGuire, Smith’s predecessor.

Many big names have been tied to the job. Former Butler coach and current Boston Celtics executive Brad Stevens’ name was circulating until he shut down the rumors swiftly on Wednesday.

Because of all the names circulating, let’s break down each coach by the likelihood of that coach coming to North Carolina, starting from very unlikely to very likely.

Very unlikely: Todd Golden (Florida)

Todd Golden is one of the few names on this list to lead his team to a national championship, which he did last year as Florida earned its third national title. He has emerged as one of the favorites to land the job, but it’s hard to see Golden walking away from a program as strong as Florida.

The Gators have reached five Final Fours and won three national titles since 2000. Even before Billy Donovan turned Florida into a powerhouse, Lon Kruger led the Gators to the Final Four in 1994, meaning three of the program’s last four head coaches have taken Florida that far. Golden’s buyout is $16 million, and he also benefits from coaching in a state with no income tax.

Very Unlikely: Dusty May (Michigan)

After leading Florida Atlantic to an improbable Final For run, Dusty May is making Michigan a powerhouse once again. The Wolverines, who are the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament, are in the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row and are in prime position to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2018.

It will be difficult to lure May to Carolina. Michigan is as committed to basketball as it is to football and is considered one of the favorites to win a national title. The Wolverines also have significantly more name, image and likeness licensing resources than North Carolina.

Unlikely: Tommy Lloyd (Arizona)

Tommy Lloyd is another top coach many expect UNC to pursue. He is 146-35 at Arizona and has led the Wildcats to the Sweet 16 in four of his five seasons. Arizona is a favorite to reach the Final Four and a legitimate contender for the program’s second national championship.

The Tar Heels may have a chance, but it appears to be slim. Lloyd is very much a West Coast coach. He may not want to move across the country, especially given Arizona’s stability. The Wildcats have had three coaches since 1983: Hall of Famer Lute Olson, Sean Miller and Lloyd.

Carolina, by contrast, is on its third coach in the last five seasons and its sixth since Dean Smith retired in 1997.

Unlikely: Grant McCasland (Texas Tech)

Grant McCasland is a chameleon who adapts to his environment to win games. He has won 68% of his Big 12 contests after winning 67% of his games in Conference USA. McCasland’s roster-building choices are consistently logical, and his teams play tough, scrappy and smart. Texas Tech reached the Elite Eight last season, and a season-ending injury to JT Toppin derailed another potential deep tournament run.

Like May, though, he is at a Texas Tech program with significant NIL backing. McCasland is also a proud Texan. UNC’s brand gives it a chance, but it’s difficult to pull a Texan out of Texas, especially given that all but two of his stops as an assistant or head coach have been in the Lone Star State.

Maybe: Billy Donovan (Chicago Bulls)

Billy Donovan appears to be on shaky ground as the coach of the Chicago Bulls, but he owns a Hall of Fame-level college résumé. He took over a solid Florida program from Lon Kruger in the mid-1990s and turned it into a powerhouse, winning two national championships. He later moved to the NBA, guiding the Oklahoma City Thunder to within one win of the 2016 NBA Finals before they squandered a 3-1 lead to Golden State in the Western Conference finals.

Donovan has not coached in college in more than a decade. With NIL and the transfer portal reshaping the sport, he may decide he has little interest in returning to the college game. If he is interested, though, he would almost certainly be one of the finalists based on his track record.

Maybe: Nate Oats (Alabama)

Oats is another name to watch. He has turned Alabama into one of the nation’s premier programs, reaching the Sweet 16 in five of the last six seasons and making a Final Four run in 2024.

However, Oats has an $18 million buyout. That is steep, and when combined with Davis’ buyout, the total climbs to $23 million. The cost would rise further once you factor in Oats’ salary and any assistants he would bring with him. That financial reality is why he lands in the “maybe” category.

Likely: T.J. Otzelberger (Iowa State)

T.J. Otzelberger quickly turned Iowa State into a perennial Big 12 contender after inheriting a program that won just two games in 2020-21. He won at South Dakota State and UNLV, but he has fully established his identity with the Cyclones.

Otzelberger’s defenses are elite. Iowa State uses relentless pressure and has ranked in the top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency in all five of his seasons. The Cyclones do not have top-tier resources by power-conference standards, but Otzelberger has done more with less every year thanks to his sharp eye for talent in both the high school ranks and the transfer portal.

Otzelberger’s buyout is only $4 million, meaning North Carolina would not need to break the bank to land him if he is near the top of the list.

Very likely: Mark Byington (Vanderbilt)

Mark Byington is a basketball lifer who has exceeded expectations at every stop. Georgia Southern had been a perennial bottom-feeder in the Southern Conference until Byington arrived and led the Eagles to their best season of the KenPom era, which dates to 1997. He used that run to vault to James Madison, where he took the Dukes into the Top 25 for the first time in school history and into the round of 32 in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

A similar arc is playing out at Vanderbilt, just in a different ZIP code. Byington has lifted the Commodores from the SEC basement into one of the league’s top teams.

Byington is, at his core, a program builder. He maximizes each roster and has beaten his preseason KenPom projection in nine of his 13 seasons as the coach. His offenses are consistently high level, and he has proven to be a sharp evaluator in the portal and what amounts to college free agency.

In an era when talent evaluation is everything, Byington stands out as one of the best. His familiarity with North Carolina also helps: He played at UNC Wilmington from 1994 to 1998.

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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC basketball: Ranking candidates by likelihood of taking job