How to nail your fantasy draft strategy | Yahoo Fantasy Mailbag
Josh Norris & Joel Smyth answer YOUR burning fantasy football questions as draft season approaches.
Video Transcript
That's Joel Smith.
I'm Josh Norris.
This is answering your questions.
Yes, this is our mail bag episode.
We've got them for you every single week.
Joel, we've got some incredible questions.
The first one comes from Noah Fattore.
Where's the best spot to pick from this year, Joel?
What's your favorite draft slot this year?
I think it's the 101.
If it's not the 101- I'm fine with the 102.
But I think there's a huge gap between Gibbs and Bijan and everybody else this year.
Not the most ideal for the second round, but even, like, if we're looking at, say, like, auction values, the difference between that first pick and the 12th pick in, like, auction leagues is massive.
So I'll just take the 101 and go ha- be happy with Jahmyr Gibbs.
Interesting.
Joel, I picked the exact opposite end.
I, I love the turn issue.
Really?
Like, I- I- I think the running backs at the, you know, 112, the 12, 1, or the 21 are just totally mispriced this season, and that's ma- mainly because I just have them totally ranked differently than everywhere else.
Like, I, I have Like, if you give me two of Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, and Ken Walker III, I feel like that is a foundation of my team, and I can make the case for any of those names to potentially, not just have, like, 20 fancy points this year.
Like, this is obviously ceiling outcomes.
But, like, maybe be the running back that you need in fantasy football this season.
And getting those at the end of round one, is incredible value for me this season.
I do like going running back, running back this year.
So I don't hate it.
So let's then tie in Matthew Mead's question because he asks, "What's the best strategy when selecting at pick 12 if it's a double running back to start?
Which wide receivers should you be targeting at the 3-4 turn?"
And this, again, goes exactly into why I love the running back, running back start at, like, the 10, 11, 12 pick.
Because then when we get into rounds three and rounds four, Joel, like, give me the some combination of Malik Nabers if he falls, if your league is scared of injuries.
If not, you get Zay Flowers, Jalen Waddell, Tedd Ginn Jr., Mekhi Buka, Garrett Wilson, Ladd McConkie.
Again, like, that 3-4 turn area is rich with wide receiver talent.
And again, just like the running backs at the top, I could make a case with any of those five-ish wide receivers to be, quote-unquote, "This year's Jackson Smith and Jigba," in terms of, like, over-performing their wide receiver spot by, like, 10 or 15 positions.
Yeah, I do like the running back, running back if you do have pick 12.
So it's usually receiver, receiver for me at the end of round three, which is kind of pretty muddy.
Another name that I'd throw in there is Devonte Smith.
I love him at the end of the third round.
Very happy with A.J.
Brown gone and him being the wide receiver one in that offense.
Malik Nabers, if he slips, like, I'll take him at the end of the third round.
And a- another one that you named- Oh, totally Zay Flowers.
Lots of Zay Flowers- So- Devonte Smith in round four and round three.
Joel, just to circle back to the beginning.
If you like the, the 101 or 102, I mentioned my ideal, like, round 1-2 turn and then 3-4 turn.
What is it for you then?
What's your favorite 2-3 turn and then maybe 4-5 area of, of picks that you could make if you get Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan at the top?
10 team is a lot easier.
So I will admit that.
Yeah.
In some of the 10 teams, you can get the running backs.
Like, Henry's going, like, 21st right now.
Walker, like, 19 or 20 in ADP.
So I would like to pair it up with one of that if possible.
If not, if Bowers slips, I'll be very happy with him.
Or I can take someone like Nico Collins at the end of the second and then start off the third round.
I don't mind Jeremiah Love, especially if you have a Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson.
Having Love as that second running back in the third round- Mm-hmm when we're talking, like, rookie running backs in the past that have, like, busted, a lot of them, their busts are still RB2 range.
So if Jeremiah Love can at least, you know, be that, then at least he's making that third-round value and he has better upside, obviously, than your average running back.
Love that.
Okay.
That brings us to our next question because, you know, I, I talked about a start that you might have Ken Walker III and Chase Brown at the 1-2 turn.
You talked about, you know- Mm-hmm Jahmyr Gibbs and Jeremiah Love start.
So Bird Knows Ball brings this up.
"Is zero wide receiver a viable strategy this year in redraft?
You can hammer elite running backs early, then take the upside shots at wide out in the mid to late rounds."
So first, before I ask you if it's viable, Joel, can we also just define for the people, like, what zero wide receiver is in our minds?
Is it, like, hey, you can't make a single wide receiver selection until round four?
Does that qualify?
I would say that's close to qualifying.
If you go- Okay like, three running backs in a row, then I would say that, like, kind of counts as your zero receiver, zero everything else.
But I would- Yes say more so round five, which I don't mind, like, throwing in a tight end there.
If, like, you're drafting Bowers or Loveland, someone like that.
Still zero receiver going into round five.
But yeah, more so, like, getting three running backs before you draft that first r- wide out.
Okay.
So Bird Knows Ball threw out a, a couple of zero wide receiver targets.
And give me your favorite name of this group.
So it's Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, Parker Washington, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Wan'Dale Robinson.
There's a bunch of rookies out there.
I know I have one or two or even three favorites here.
What about you?
Parker Washington would be my number one.
I love him- Oh, yeah especially where he's going in, like, the 30s right now.
He's wide receiver 35 in ADP.
I love that.
McLaurin, especially for, like, a zero wide receiver target, I think is really solid because he is going to be good.
Like, I'd be very shocked if McLaurin wasn't at least startable.
Where, like, last year is the worst situation ever.
He's got backup quarterbacks.
He's hurt.
Daniel's hurt.
And he was still a fantasy wide receiver three.
So you still have that upside with McLaurin as that best receiver on the team.
But- Can be a solid starter if he's just okay this year.
But who are you thinking?
Man, I, I mean, Parker Washington is, is one of my guys.
He, you know, is the 27th ranked wide receiver for me right now, which is well ahead of ADP.
Even higher than them, him, Joel, is, is Christian Watson.
Like, I'm obsessed with Christian Watson this year.
Mm-hmm.
I think people in their brains view Christian Watson as still this high variance, downfield, 50/50.
When he runs hot, he's awesome, when he doesn't, he's on your bench and, or you wish he was.
When in reality, when he wa- hit the field last season, he was amazing.
And he was consistent, you know?
And it's because his game changed.
Like, he went, his ADOT dropped tremendously.
He went from running, you know, out route 7% of the time up to 35% of the time.
On third and six he was their go-to player.
And now we don't have the frustration, at least we hope we don't, of this Packers like, you know, quartet of wide receivers.
It's now just a trio, and he should be on the field in all personnel groupings, 11 and 12.
And on top of that, Jordan Love revealed he's gonna play Z, which means he doesn't have to just be stationary on the line of scrimmage, running downfield routes.
He's gonna get, you know, the motions, the stacks, the easy releases, all that type of stuff.
I think Christian Watson is still undervalued.
I have him as my 24th overall wide receiver in my rankings right now.
I love that you bring up his versatility because it is, for fantasy, like, the week-to-week floor.
If he has more ways to get involved, more targets in different areas outside of just being, like, a vertical receiver, which is true.
Like, they used him, and he was getting targets.
His targets per route on the horizontal routes, those crossers, all that.
Money routes in fantasy.
Was number one in football.
Yeah.
So they are getting him involved in more ways.
And yeah, Dubs, Wicks are both gone.
So I think my ideal zero wide receiver start could be this.
It, it goes back to what you were saying, where let's say in a 10 team or even 12, somehow, some way you get Bijan Robinson as pick two.
Somehow Brock Bowers falls to you at, like, the 211.
Then what you were saying, you get Jeremiah Love, and then maybe you love DeAndre Swift.
And then we get into, like, the round five, six territory.
That could be, you know, Garrett Wilson and Christian Watson, or Terry McLaurin and Christian Watson if somehow he comes back, or even Rome Odunze on top of that.
So while it's not, like, the perfect, you know, top two wide receivers on your fantasy roster, at the same time, that's a sick way to win your flex with three running backs every single week compared to all your opponents.
Yeah, I love it.
And round five receiver is probably, like, my favorite position in a certain round right now.
Yes.
Jaylen Waddle, another one with Christian Watson, like, going in that round five consistently.
That can be a fantasy wide receiver one.
He's the wide receiver one on his team, same as Christian Watson, so I like that there.
Okay.
Liam Carr asks a fantastic question specifically for you, Joel.
Draft strategy question.
Is there historical data or recent data to back up selecting heavy running back in the first few rounds, and if that's better than heavy wide receiver, leading to more points per value or per week?
What would be your answer here?
Yes.
Big yes.
When we're talking fantasy wins above replacement- Yeah going back to, like, that baseball stat.
If it is your standard two running back, two receiver league, the running backs are up top in wins above replacement, just because there aren't as many of them.
There's aren't, not as many talented bell cow running backs as you can get at receiver.
And when we're looking at just points per game, Mark, the 24 point per game, like, league winners in fantasy, 90% of them, of the running backs, have been in round one and round two, and basically all of them have been running backs.
Like, in the last decade there's been two receivers, and one of those is, like, 2021 Cooper Kupp, who was being drafted in round four and five.
And then we get to the drop-off in round three.
That's the big thing.
It's not just that they are so much better than receivers, it's they dry up faster.
The positional advantage.
In round three and four, there has been two 20 point per game scoring running backs in the last decade.
There has been 31 in the first two rounds.
Ooh.
The drop-off is just insane.
Compared to receivers, you can still find there's been seven 20 po- 20 point per game scorers in the last 10 years in those rounds.
Yeah.
I mean, 20 to 21 points per game is what we're looking for every single time.
I had many of the same numbers that you did.
Like, if you look at the top seven wins above replacement players in fantasy football last year, five of them are running backs.
The other two were Puka Nacua and Jason.
And that's even in full PPR.
You know?
We're not even talking about half PPR here.
Mm-hmm.
That's full PPR.
And so that should lean even more to wide receivers, and it just speaks to what we're talking about here with, with the importance of running backs.
Now, I guess we did have, like, a perfect storm of stuff happen with the running backs last year, you know?
It coincides with the league embracing the running game more to, due to coverages, and that includes heavier personnel stats, which have been all the rage of the off-season with, you know, teams selecting tight ends over and over and over again in rounds two and rounds three.
So I guess, Joel, I could sit back and say, "Hey," in a flash, we could have more running back injuries, which we had very few of in round one and round two last year, with more wide receivers avoiding injury this year.
Whereas last year, like, all those guys got hurt in the opening two rounds.
But right now we are, like, near peak, I would say, in terms of the NFL supporting true bell cows versus, you know, 50/50 splits or 60/40 splits.
Like, we're seeing guys 70-plus percent of the time, which is rare over the last few years of fantasy football.
And also they're running the heck out of the football just because of how defense is, like, the cycle of the NFL right now.
So yeah, I mean, there's a reason why you and I both talked about running back, running back starts and, and zero wide receiver to open this thing.
Where, what could go wrong?
Just drafting a whole bunch of running backs early in fantasy football this year.
Yeah, hopefully it works.
I will say, like, the one bump for confidence in running backs is they got contracts this summer.
That was the big one.
Like, we had so many of these top fantasy running backs get paid a lot of money- Yeah with A-Chan, Walker, the top guys, and we still have a lot from last year, like James Cook's getting a ton of money, Derrick Henry, Barkley.
Like, a lot of those players are guaranteed to get 250 to 300 to- 300 touches.
So hopefully that kinda balances it out, where I think it might be a little bit top-heavy this year, which is why I think it's so important to get running back in round two specifically.
But yeah, receiver injuries, I hope it's better, but it was rough last season.
Yeah, let's just turn injuries off for everyone, and just have, you know- a full season of, hey, how we predict how these players are gonna be and how we project them.
That's just what turns out.
Rather than injuries, you know, changing all of fantasy football.
Okay, we got quick one left from Eric X- S-X.
In a 12-man league, round three seems like the most boring, quote, "pick your guy" round.
It feels like the wide receivers in this round have the same upside as the wide receivers in four and five, kind of what you talked about earlier.
Meanwhile, the running backs in round three also feel underwhelming.
So Joel, who's your favorite round three pick at this moment?
I'll give you a couple.
One- Okay we've talked about Jeremiah Love.
I don't mind it, start of round three.
Nico Collins has been slipping a little bit, and I feel like he is one where he kinda deserves to be a round two pick, end of round two.
In the start of round three you can still get Nico Collins.
I like that.
And then the end of round three, I mentioned earlier one that I'm fine reaching a little bit for because he has a fourth-round ADP, and that's DeVonta Smith.
Really like him this year, just his potential.
He's very proven.
He has the chemistry with his quarterback.
That offense should bounce back using him in a different way.
So I do like DeVonta Smith and willing to reach for him because that round three's just, yeah, such a mess.
Do you have any favorites?
I do, and I'll give you one that's in round three no matter what your scoring is, no matter what platform, obviously Yahoo, that you draft on.
Tee Higgins.
Tee Higgins is my answer.
Like- The last time that he played 17 games with Joe Burrow, he was the wide receiver four in points per game.
I'll repeat that.
The last time that Tee Higgins played 17 games with Joe Burrow, he was the wide receiver four in points per game, and you're getting him right now as the wide receiver 14.
And that's because he went from, you know, six catches, 76 yards with Joe Burrow, down to four catches and 56 yards when he played, you know, eight games with Burrow, six games with Joe Flacco, and three games with Jake Browning.
This is one of the only scenarios, only times I can remember, Joel, where the Bengals are actually going into the season healthy in terms of, and all their guys on the practice field- in terms of Burrow, and Higgins, and Ja'Marr Chase at one time.
I'm hoping that means good things are happening, because even when that hasn't been the case and someone misses time, when they still are on the field together, it's fireworks.
So I still All those wide receivers are awesome, but Tee Higgins stands out to me as a guy that we've already seen produce at a top five points per game output.
I think he gets overshadowed a lot because people talk about the injuries, but when we're looking at just points per game, the games that he has played.
And then last year, down year because of the quarterbacks, but he was actually still good with Joe Flacco.
If you just take out the three games with Jake Browning, he was top 10.
So that's back-to-back years as a top 10 receiver as long as he doesn't have Jake Browning at quarterback.
And he's in, which he's only missed a few games in those last couple years.
So yeah, I don't mind it at all.
I love Tee Higgins.
And, and you know how it is.
Like, people just do not want to take one team's wide receiver two over a wide receiver one- that is staring at them on the board.
When in reality, some of the best passing games we've seen, taking the wide receiver two is actually better than other teams' wide receiver ones, a la George Pickens last year, and we've seen it with Tee Higgins now as well.
So yeah.
Just draft Tee Higgins and feel good about it.
All right, that does it for us.
Follow me, @JoshNorris.
Follow Joel over at @FantasySmyth, and that's Smyth with a Y, just for your information.
Mm-hmm.
And send us your questions to get featured on the next episode.
Thanks for tuning in to the Yahoo Fantasy Mailbag.
We'll see you next time.
