Baker, Bucs ‘not anywhere close’ in contract talks

Mike Florio and Myles Simmons analyze the latest in the contract talks between Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, discussing why the two sides are not on the same page.

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Video Transcript

All right, here we go.

PFT Live, Monday edition.

So I had just noticed last week, somebody that covers the Buccaneers, I don't know if it was Joe Buck's fan, Peter Rapport, Tampa Bay Tribune, I don't know, but somebody had pointed out that we hadn't heard from Baker Mayfield during the off-season program.

And the background here is Baker Mayfield, first overall pick in 2018 by Miles Browns, as Miles well knows, and it was a, a mixed bag.

Hey, they went to the playoffs in 2020, blew out the Steelers, had the Chiefs on the run a little bit, gave the Chiefs a little bit everything they could handle in the playoffs that year in the divisional round.

That's true.

That's true.

But the 2021 season didn't go well, and I think one of the reasons it didn't go well was Baker Mayfield is so stubborn, in a good way, but he's stubborn to a fault, so that would make it a bad way.

Plays through injury, doesn't wanna come off the field.

The season was marred by the fact that he kept playing through the aches and pains that come from playing football, and by the time the 2021 season ended, the Bears the Bears?

The Browns decided to look in a different direction, and that poisoned the relationship with Baker Mayfield.

The initial flirtation with Deshaun Watson, it's one of the reasons they had to do that deal with Deshaun Watson.

They pissed off Baker Mayfield, he gets traded to the Panthers, that doesn't work out, becomes a free agent.

After his first year with the Buccaneers, it went pretty well.

He becomes a free agent, and no one was interested.

Mm-hmm.

No one else called.

No one else pursued him.

So he signed a three-year, $100 million contract, and he has played very well.

And now he's entering the final year, Miles, and, you know, I When I think back to all the different things that have been said by the Buccaneers, and specifically GM Jason Licht, they've expressed this kind of nonchalant optimism that they'll get something done.

But w- we're in an age where the range of veteran quarterback, starting quarterback salaries is extremely broad, and I think for any one of the players, it becomes challenging to figure out where he lands- Mm-hmm between 20 million per year and 60 million per year.

Well, I, I th- always think about the Tua Tagovailoa.

The market is the market, right?

And, and that's where they signed him to that deal that, you know, was of the quote, unquote, "market value," right?

And then they bailed on it.

And so what does that tell you from a quarterbacking standpoint, quarterback contract standpoint, where, yeah, the market may be the market, but if you're not performing to that level, then the team is not gonna wanna continue to pay you like that.

I mean, you can talk about Tua Tagovailoa.

You could talk about Russell Wilson, right?

You could talk about maybe Justin Fields in some ways too, right?

I mean, the way the Jets gave him that money, and then they sent him to Kansas City.

So this is the kind of situation where, yes, Baker Mayfield has played well enough to earn a new deal, but, and as we're going to get to momentarily, the thing is, the Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield have to agree upon what his value is.

Not just for h- the him, you know, and the Buccaneers, but, like, what does that look like if Baker Mayfield is on the open market?

Because that's the kind of salary he should at least start to try to command, and then maybe you give the quote, unquote, "hometown discount," whatever.

But figuring out what that value is, what that number is, that, that's gonna be a process, apparently.

Well, and I've got some thoughts about that.

Before we get there, though, let's set the table properly with the comments from late last week.

Baker Mayfield, when asked how the contract extension talks between he and the Buccaneers are progressing.

Contract stuff, it's, it's, it's happening.

Starting the, the talks and whatnot, but, I'm not anywhere close to, to what, you know, we were thinking.

So, would love to be here long term, and, as of right now, that's, that's not exactly the case.

But I'm under contract for 2026, and the guys in that locker room, the staff know, that I'm still gonna be me.

I'm still gonna do everything I can to help this team win a Super Bowl.

A- and that's, to me, that's the priority.

Everything else will take care of itself.

Obviously, yes, I would love to have a long-term deal done, but, they know my deadline is as soon as training camp starts, we're not doing any contract stuff.

It's, it's all ball.

so it's not up to me when, when that gets done by, but, So hopefully, hopefully before that.

If not, we're still gonna have a good year.

It's an interesting deadline.

It's not a real deadline, but if Baker Mayfield regards it as a real deadline, then maybe the Buccaneers will respond accordingly.

It's different, you know, with Lamar Jackson and his contract talks with the Ravens, because he represents himself.

Once it's time to play, they don't talk.

Lamar Jackson has enough to do.

Mm-hmm.

Baker Mayfield has agents.

The work- Yes can continue without Baker Mayfield's involvement, but it still does create a distraction where some of your bandwidth is occupied by updates, and you're thinking.

And you're thinking about the bird in the hand and the two in the bush, and you're carrying the injury risk one week at a time while they're putting more and more money on the table.

At what point do I say yes to this, and can I gain even more leverage if I have a big season?

You talked about winning the Super Bowl.

For him, the personal Super Bowl is having the kind of season that makes him the guy that everybody wants when he becomes a free agent.

I mean, if he were to have an MVP season in 2026, and I'm not saying he will, but I'm also not saying he won't.

Nobody knows how it's gonna go.

He was getting some buzz early on last year when the Bucs were winning and he was healthy.

I think he got banged up.

I think he always He's one of those Matthew Stafford types where he's always more banged up than we realize, and it does manifest itself, I think, in his performance.

And he won't use it as an excuse, but what people just think is, "Oh, he m- he's not, he didn't have a good day today."

Yeah, he didn't have a good day 'cause he got five different injuries we don't really know the full extent of, and he can't perform the way that he would if he was completely healthy.

But, but-If this deadline is real, it does raise the stakes for what's gonna happen over the course of the next six weeks, and it all comes down to coming up with the right number.

And when he says it hasn't gone the way that we thought it would, when you supplement that, Miles, with the report from Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times that the Buccaneers made a proposal and Mayfield has not responded.

Okay, that, that put together, here's what that means.

They were insulted by the opening offer, that the opening offer is so low that it's not going to be, through the process of back and forth, a number that gets to where they wanna be.

Now, typically in negotiations, and this is my own experience from trying to negotiate the resolution of civil lawsuits, one side makes the first move and the other side calculates its response relative to where you wanna end up in light of the first move.

So the lower- Mm-hmm the offer is, the higher the demand needs to be to send a message as to where this thing gets done.

Yes.

And the most important move is always the second move made by the first party that put a number on the table.

'Cause then you kn- then you know whether they're moving toward that middle ground.

Here's the problem, and this is why I think it's prudent for Mayfield to not respond.

Wherever they are, if it's so low that it's not pointing to a ballpark that Mayfield would accept, the counter would have to be so high to send a message as to what he's looking for, one person in the organization leaks that, and that becomes, "Oh, Baker Who does Baker Mayfield think he is?"

Right.

"Baker Mayfield?

Baker Mayfield wants 65 million a year?

Who does he think he is?"

Well, no, he doesn't want that, but that's the demand that he's made to try to get the Buccaneers to where he thinks they need to be in light of where they have started.

Remember when, "Ha, Daniel Jones wants 45 million a year.

Who does he think he is?"

Yeah, he ended up getting 40 in that round of negotiations.

Yeah.

So that, that's part of this game.

When someone makes the demand to the team, all it takes is one person in the organization who doesn't like where this is going and wants to make the player look bad, you leak that, and the reporters report it without context, and people just get pissed off.

Who does he think he is asking for that kind of a contract?

And Mayfield's trying to avoid that, and that's smart.

It is smart.

you look at those lists, that list that we just showed of quarterbacks and average annual value and, and all this.

I- has Baker Mayfield not played himself to be on that level of guys who are making the AAV of over 50 million a year?

I mean, based on the names that are on that list, the Trevor Lawrences of the world, Jared Goffs of the world.

I, I Is Baker Mayfield not on that level?

And I kinda think that he is, you know?

And there I mean, maybe reasonable people can disagree, but, I mean, we're a year removed from him throwing over 40 touchdowns, right?

So, like, this is not necessarily something that should be too far-fetched if that's what the market is, right?

And if Tua Tagovailoa said the market is the market, well, then that's what you get.

But I, I also think that w- if you're the Buccaneers, you may not wanna necessarily do that when you have a player who has a history of being up and down and up and down.

And yeah, some of that definitely has to do with the stuff that Baker Mayfield has played through.

But if he's gonna be out there on the field, then he's gonna be judged by his performance, and if you're gonna be judged by your performance, then that is going to be a factor in what a team is willing or not willing to pay you.

So this is interesting.

And I mean, it, it's We're also in a situation where this is the time of year that these things tend to get done in terms of these contracts, 'cause you're, you're getting beyond the off-season program.

You, you've got some time off, but, you know, then, eh, the, the there's not much going on in the early parts of July.

So if that really is a real deadline, there, there's time for this to get worked out between Mayfield and the Bucs.

But it is just interesting trying to assess, where does Baker Mayfield fall on the spectrum of quarterbacks, quarterback pay, pay based on the quarterback play?

I'm, I'm not sure.

The current leader in new money average per year.

Now, there's an element of fiction, an element of fugazi that goes into the new money APY.

Right.

But it's the closest thing we have to apples to apples to apples when it comes to- Yeah valuing contracts.

And, and here's the caveat I'll give you.

Dak Prescott is currently the leader new money APY at 60.

That is if we ignore the technical new money analysis that would apply to Josh Allen.

'Cause you see Josh Allen at 55.

If we're gonna do the true new money analysis, and this is something that the Bills and Allen's representatives kind of wink, nod, we're not gonna talk about this.

When they redid Josh Allen's deal, added a couple years, gave him a big raise, the new money analysis would push that to, like, 85 or 87 million.

But nobody says that.

We don't talk about that, because there are points where the new money analysis completely collapses onto itself.

The bottom line is, if we're gonna go new money APY as the apples to apples comparison, look at those guys in the 50s.

You've got Trevor Lawrence.

You've got Jordan Love.

You've got Brock Purdy.

You had Tua Tagovailoa in there.

Jared Goff at 53.

And the name I've heard as it relates-To Baker Mayfield is Brock Purdy.

Now, I would, I would, I mean, I don't know, between Purdy and Goff, I don't know who I would want.

But between Purdy, Goff, and Mayfield, frankly, frankly And, and I, I say this because I just kind of, I like the way Mayfield carries himself.

I like his swagger.

I like his bravado.

I like his confidence.

I like that he's gotten the absolute most out of his God-given abilities.

He's not the tallest guy.

He's not the most athletic guy.

He doesn't have the strongest arm.

But damn it, he's like a throwback, and he gets it done.

but you know, 53 new money APY.

And see, the, the reason why the new money APY is, is complicated, and I try to simplify this as best I can.

Sometimes I break my own brain while doing so.

There is no such thing as an extension in the NFL.

They take your current contract, they rip it up, they replace it with a new one.

The new money analysis is a fiction created by agents to make the new contract look better than it is.

Because usually you're getting some sort of a raise.

The new contract is worth more than the old contract.

And the old contract pays X.

For Baker Mayfield, it pays him 27 million this year.

Now, there's some dispute about whether or not he's getting 40 or 27.

He's already earned 13 extra that gets paid this year.

I look at it as 27 this year.

Yeah.

So, and I think the Bucs would be well-served to treat it as 27 because you get to a higher new money APY the lower the number is that's left.

You throw in the new contract, you look at the new years, you look at the total money, you subtract the old money, and you divide it by the number of years, and that's your new money APY.

If that makes any sense, and there's a chance it does not.

So how does he get?

Where does he get?

Does he get to 50?

Does it start with a five?

Does it start with a four?

And Miles, this is what I heard in talking to some people this weekend.

The Buccaneers think that if they let Baker Mayfield hit the open market in March, no one else will offer him more than what their bottom line offer is going to be.

So okay, that's fine.

He may just leave to prove a point, though.

Yeah.

He could go take less somewhere else if he wants to.

Yeah.

If you piss him off and disrespect him, it doesn't matter if you're offering 40 and someone else is offering 38.

He may go take the 38, even if it's in a state where there would be state income tax, 'cause there's none in Florida.

So I, there's always that risk you take when you lowball a guy that you think number one, doesn't wanna leave the team, and number two, isn't gonna find anything better elsewhere.

Both may be true.

He still may leave.

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