Key Pitching Duel: Pirates vs. Padres Game Preview
Pirates vs. Padres at Petco Park: Braxton Ashcraft vs. Robbie Ray. Joe and Tom expect a strikeout- and walk-filled duel in this game with key implications.
Video Transcript
Still got a lot going on here out west, and some fascinating match-ups here, Tom.
And maybe none more interesting, I think, than what the Pirates and the Padres, late night tonight, 9:40 Eastern Time, are going to deliver.
Listen, Ashcraft, we have talked about on this show, has been lights out.
Mm-hmm.
Mm-hmm.
And he's been so He's just buried playing for Pittsburgh.
Robbie Ray has been great.
He was great with the Giants.
He's been okay here so far with the Padres.
The problem with him is the walks, and that's what worries me.
The problem is he's got just as many strikeouts as he does walks.
At some point, that could come back to bite you.
But the Padres' bullpen, you know, they're built to win lower scoring games- Mm-hmm and to be able to bail him out.
Pirates' bullpen is reworked.
I think this is a great pitchers' duel tonight.
It's at Petco.
Mm-hmm.
Usually that means an under, does it not?
It does.
And, you know, what Like, the joke I like to use in a lot of these spots is, like, you know, when unstoppable force meets a movable object.
It's, it That's kind of what we have.
Like, Robbie Ray allowing runners on base for free, or any pitcher.
When any pitcher allows runners on base for free, it drives me insane.
So when we're looking at Robbie Ray over the last 30 days, he has a, a, a 2.67 ERA.
Awesome.
That's great.
He has, you know, seven K's per nine.
He's at 4.67 walks per nine, which is terrible.
Absolutely horrible.
Allowing runners on base is horrible.
But when we look at the Pirates versus lefties over the last 30 days, they're the second worst team in the MLB, with a 64 WRC+.
They have a strikeout rate that's over 25%.
They do have a walk rate at 9.4%.
So they can't generate any offense.
They're swinging and missing a ton.
But Robbie Ray, if we have the bad version of Robbie Ray tonight, or even the, the mediocre version of him, that's where we They The Pirates just get runs for free, even though they don't deserve it.
So I do like the under.
Yeah.
And really, the Padres should be coming through with this win because the Pirates offense is inept against lefties in recent form.
Crazy, too, because I know they were hoping O'Neill Cruz would be back, maybe give them a little bit of a punch.
But it's They are so bad against lefties.
Mm-hmm.
And there's just no reason for it here.
It, it really isn't.
But, hey, out at Petco here tonight.
It's usually a big under ballpark, but I think, uh- Yeah I think Braxton Ashcraft, if you have not had a chance to see him pitch, I mean, he dominated Detroit on Tuesday.
He dominated the Marlins prior to that.
It, it is Th- this kid is the And he's doing it.
He's throwing seven, eight, nine innings, Tom.
And he's doing it with, like, 80 pitches.
Yeah.
Like, I have not seen a guy be this efficient as he has been.
It's unfortunate that he's buried because i- he gonna make himself a lot of He may not end up with Pittsburgh in the long run, but this kid is gonna make himself a whole lot of money if he stays healthy.
He, he really can.
He keeps the ball in the park- He's- for the most part.
He, he, you know, uh- Yeah he suppresses hits.
He's, like Everything that you want from a pitcher, with good strikeouts, you know, keeping the pitch count under control, which is always great.
Every team, every manager possibly wants that.
Even in recent form, you know, 2.73, 2.73 ERA over the last 30 days is really nice.
And even if you look to his underlying metrics of his xERA, which is generally a better indicator, that's at 2.71.
So it's not like he's overperforming.
His xFIP is also, you know, sitting in the same range at 3.06.
So it's not like he's just going on some crazy strikes.
Like, he actually kind of deserves the results he's been getting.
Whether or not he's with Pittsburgh long term is yet to be seen, but it's probably a no.
Yeah, and I Listen, injuries have not been great to them.
Ryan, they lost Ryan O'Hearn.
They fell Offense fell off a- Oh, yeah a cliff there.
Connor Griffin, the rookie, has been I, I So they've, you know, they've had to deal with some situations there.
The bullpen was a mess for the first half of the season.
But keep this in mind.
On July 23rd, they were 53 and 50, Tom.
They, they were right there- in the wild card race, and ever since then they've gone 10 and 19.
It has not been good.
They just got beat up by the Dodgers.
I Am I crazy to think that currently right now the hottest team in Major League Baseball over the last month, Padres?
Is that fair?
It, it might be.
Over the last month, sure.
You know, I will just say for the Pirates, credit to them, they still have a positive run differential, which I didn't think I'd be saying on- Yes, they do August 24th at this point.
But they, they put together a good season.
A little bit of injury unluckiness is there, but the Padres have just been unbelievably hot over the past month.
And I was not high on the Padres coming into the season, and halfway through- Me neither I was like, I was like, "Listen, I'm right."
I, I, I knew I was right.
And, you know, a little bit of an older roster.
They took some time to get going.
They made a few trades, and they're looking good.
And they're a dangerous team in the postseason.
The thing I would say about the Padres is, who's gonna be their game one starter, Joe?
Like, do we Like, do they have a guy- Yeah who like Oh, we know for basically every other team, like, it's a Wheeler, it's a Cam Schlittler.
You know, if the Blue Jays make it, it's gonna be Dylan Cease.
We know it's gonna be Payne Tolley or, Johnny Gray.
Like, the Padres just don't have that guy, which is my issue.
