NYL won't 'get where they want to' without Fiebich
Natalie Esquire and Owen Pence take a deep dive into the WNBA playoff picture, including the Liberty's continued struggles, how the Atlanta Dream are faring and who's firmly sitting in the top three.
Video Transcript
Let's talk about the bigger playoff picture, right?
You know, because we're talking about some of these lower seeds.
And before we move on from them, though, I, I mean, I have to ask you about the New York Liberty, because, you know, we're talking- about the Mystics being gritty and da, da, da, da.
But, like, if the Mystics win another game, the Liberty are gonna go right back to the eight seed.
They have not been able to move back up in the standings.
And at this point, I feel pretty confident that they're not gonna have a top four spot.
They don't own any of the important tiebreakers, you know?
And so I, I, I you know, I asked Sabrina Ionescu earlier this season about the parity and, you know, of course they're gonna always express confidence and say they can, you know, beat any team when it matters.
But can they, Owen?
I, I'm, I'm not seeing that yet.
It's- And I'm seeing t- I'm seeing them struggle even when they are getting wins.
It's been a really interesting stretch.
They, as you s- as you just mentioned, I mean, they've been eking out these really close victories that don't really inspire a lot of confidence.
They, before the All-Star break, they had a win over Dallas in Dallas, then they had a win at home against Chicago, both games that they probably should have lost and then won in the final minutes.
And then out of the All-Star break, kind of a, a, a similar variety of wins against the Los Angeles Sparks and the Phoenix Mercury on the road, and in between those two games they, they lose in Las Vegas.
Then they come home, they finally have a comfortable win over Seattle.
At the time of this recording, they play Seattle again tonight.
Here's what I'll say to that end.
Leonie Fiebich is the player that tilts the scales for the Liberty.
We go back to 2024, and I don't mean to make excuses for them, and it feels odd because you're like they have Breanna Stewart, one of the greatest players of all time.
They have Jonquel Jones, who's won every MVP conceivable.
They have Sabrina Ionescu, a number one overall pick, a top 10 to 15 player in the WNBA.
They shouldn't have to rely on the wing, the, the fourth or fifth starter, Leonie Fiebich, to turn them into the team that they are supposed to be.
And yet, since they won the title in 2024 when Leo was a rookie, we have seen that Leo really is the difference maker on this squad in terms of the perimeter defense that she brings, in terms of the spot-up three point shooting, the cutting, just filling in the gaps around that big three.
And so I do anticipate, even without Leo, and in terms of will Leo come back and, and be effective, that's a big question mark right now.
Because the longer that she's out with this foot issue, the, the more concern, that, that you can sense around the organization.
Satou Sabally also hasn't really been able to, to be healthy for this team, during her entire season.
But I sense that they might be finding something.
I do think a run is, is imminent.
They've got a little bit of a, a soft schedule here coming up.
They, they play the Aces on Sunday in a situation that I would say is gonna be advantageous to them.
They will be coming off three days of rest.
Las Vegas will be at the end of a really, really grueling, brutal road trip, including a, a back-to-back at Minnesota, at New York, which doesn't even make any sense.
So if they can, if they can, you know, put together a four-game winning streak here, all of a sudden the narrative shifts a little bit.
Atlanta is scuffling.
They are the team right above them.
I do think that New York is, is finding its groove a little bit.
But if we look at the bigger picture to your, to your question about can they beat the top teams, I really do think that if Leo is available, the answer's yes, and if Leo's not available, they're not gonna get where they wanna go.
Yeah.
I don't know.
I, I'm not a believer.
Um- I'm not a believer, and I do, I do know the importance of Leonie Fiebich to this team.
And also last year we were saying, like, they're also really missing Benija Laney Hamilton.
Yes.
And even though B is back this year, for whatever reasons, you know, she's not in the rotation.
And clearly the coach doesn't think that she can help them in the th- in the ways that she used to or she'd be playing, right?
And so, whether that's the case or not, the fact is, yes, they are really hurting on the perimeter, but at the end of the day, even if you're down, and really important players in Satou Sabally and Le- Leo, like, I just don't wanna hear it.
Like, you, you, like, y- you have Jonquel Jones, who is an MVP level player.
You have, Breanna Stewart, who- Yeah I think everyone agrees is in the MVP conversation.
Yeah.
You have Sabrina Ionescu.
I mean, like, I just, it, it's, it's just, honestly it's inexplicable to me where they are right now in the standings, you know?
And so, they can say what they want about where they end up, but last year we saw they ended up not in the top four, and I think it does matter.
I really do think it matters.
And so you wanna have at least one round, you know, a home court round.
And so we, we will see, but I, right now, I'm out on the Liberty being true contenders.
Like, just true capable of winning it all.
I just think just maybe whatever, it just might be another year unfortunately where it's just not their year.
But we'll see.
We, we will see.
Like, look, the two best teams in the league are the Minnesota Lynx- And the Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces right now in a brutal, brutal five-game road trip right now.
They lost a game to Chicago they should've won, but look, they bounced back against Atlanta.
Right now the Lynx are pretty firmly sitting at number one, and I don't know, they may keep it.
So, but those are the two best teams, you know?
And so I, I think one, two, and three are gonna stay like this.
I really do.
Because the Aces own the tiebreaker over the Valkyries anyway.
But it's four through six, maybe four through seven, I don't know.
I just think these, the four through eights, I think that you're gonna see some shifting.
Like, I don't think eight is gonna go all the way to four, but like seven and eight might flip-flop, or six through eight, and then four through s- you know?
Like, I, I just think there's gonna be some movement among those teams.
What I do think, though, is the Atlanta Dream needs to not be in a spot where they're going up against the Golden State Valkyries in the first round.
They got swept the entire year against them.
I just don't think that's a team that they wanna face.
If they're looking for a first round match up, they need to fall somewhere, in my opinion, that they're going up against Dallas or the Fever in the first round.
And it's not that I think the Fever will be easy, but they had some success against the Fever.
They won the season series two out of three, and they have the players that can guard, you know, their, the, the Indiana Fever's guards.
Now, you're not shutting down, you know, Kelsey Mitchell or Caitlin Clark, but Rhyne Howard can give them a difficult time.
Alicia Gray is a, a solid, she can be a solid, you know, defender.
And so I think the Dream, they really, you know Of course they're trying to win every game, but I think they need to really make sure, you know, they don't end up on the same side of the, you know, of the bracket where they're, they're going up against like the Valkyries in the first round.
And you definitely don't wanna fall to like seven and potentially be facing the Aces.
They, they just cannot beat the Aces.
Those are not good match-ups for them, you know?
So And then we'll see what happens with teams like Dallas and the Fever, you know?
This is, I mean this is always the case, but I feel like, Owen, this is a year where it's really about the match-ups, right?
Like, the match-ups are really gonna determine things here.
100%, which makes the end of the regular season so fun, because teams will be trying to secure a better spot.
As you said, last year with the New York Liberty, going to Phoenix for game three was a huge deterrent.
It was a huge reason why they got bounced in the first round.
Stewie was amazing in that game, and they still lost.
Maybe if they play two of three at home they win that series.
Golden State is a place you do not wanna play.
That is a team you do not wanna play.
And the Dream matching up against Golden State versus a team like Indiana is really interesting to me, because Golden State has absolutely had their number, and Las Vegas has absolutely had their number.
Those are two teams they want to avoid.
And I, I would understand if Fever fans said, "Well, hey, we beat Atlanta last year in the playoffs.
We didn't even have Caitlin Clark."
That would be a very fair response, yet I do agree that Indiana is a better match-up for them this year.
I still think Indiana would be favored in that series, because the, the big three on that team, just lethal offensively right now.
Aliyah Boston is shooting 45% from three.
Having a, a, an all WNBA first team season, whether she gets that nod, we'll see.
I kind of doubt it, 'cause the guards have been so stupendous as well.
But I do think that Atlanta finds itself in a tricky situation where theoretically on paper this team looks great.
They should be taking that next step where they, you know, get to the semifinals after getting bounced in the first round n- last year.
But is that actually gonna happen?
The It's gonna be very match-up dependent.
And I, I still think they're kind of an underdog to make the semifinals, because a lot of these other teams at this juncture of the season are clicking.
Yeah.
Golden State looks great every night.
The Aces have A'ja Wilson.
Minnesota, best team in the league.
Yeah.
Indiana, second in net ratings.
So you could go on down the list.
Dallas, one of the best crunch time teams.
They're another team that's interesting to me, because we haven't seen what it looks like in the playoffs for them.
They only won 10 games- That's the most favorable match-up for the Dream, though.
Undeniably.
I couldn't agree more.
And I still think Dallas can be better, because those games were close.
Yeah.
But that would be a really good series.
And I, that's the series I'd wanna see, but that's the most favorable match-up for them.
I totally agree.
That, that would be such a fun series.
And this is not shade at Dallas in any sense.
Again, they won 10 games last year, and had the number one overall pick in the draft.
So me saying that I think they're the most favorable of the, of the playoff match-ups for all these teams in the middle is, is not, not at all, saying that I don't believe in them long term.
I've had so much fun watching them.
But I do think that- And by the way, beat the Liberty this year, beat the Aces.
Would not be a great match-up for the Aces.
No.
I'm not saying the Aces wouldn't win, but would not be a good match-up for them.
So that's what, it's, it's- Yeah.
You get me.
There's le- there's, there's levels to this.
And, and no one wants to go against Paige Bueckers.
The, the real takeaway here, all these teams are really, really good.
The WNBA is very deep.
And if you're a team like Atlanta right now that is having a bit of an identity crisis two-thirds of the way into the season, you're gonna be facing a lot of teams that aren't having an identity crisis.
You know who's not having an identity crisis?
The Golden State Valkyries.
They know exactly who they are, are playing phenomenal basketball.
Could be really interesting to see how these match-ups shake out.
For sure.
Atlanta, the one thing is they can usually rely on their calling card, which is defense.
Yes.
But if they don't figure out that offense, their, their postseason won't be a deep one.
So we will have to wait and see.
Owen, thank you so much as always for joining me.
I really appreciate having these conversations with you.
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