'Swing for the fences' when betting Rams in 2026
Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick believe the Rams warrant an 11.5 win total "for good reason," and barring health, should have no problem clearing the number.
Video Transcript
Okay, Drew, let's talk LA Rams win total, which is set at 11 and a half, slightly juiced to the over.
This team comes in, as an absolute all-star squad having added, Miles Garrett, having traded for Trent McDuffie.
The roster is absolutely stacked, but the schedule is pretty rough, including kicking off, in my hometown of Melbourne to start the season at the MCG, where much of my youth was spent.
The iconic walk, Drew, of course, from Richmond Station to the gates of the MCG, that's where they'll start against the Niners.
What do you think of this Rams win total?
It's, high for a good reason.
This is the number one power-rated team going into the season.
I think the Rams warrant at least a plus six and a half right now, maybe a plus seven if they get Aaron Donald out of retirement, which would be wild.
I have them as, about top It's a top 10 schedule in terms of difficulty.
They play a lot of, very good teams.
However, they are gonna be favored in every game except on Christmas against, at Seattle.
Otherwise, I have them as, at least a point and a half favorite in every contest.
As I look at their schedule, there's really, you know, it's, it's-- there's no stretches where you're really concerned about, you know, them losing focus.
Difficult opener, obviously, and then stretch between Denver, Philly, Buffalo, all, all, before we get to week six.
However, that is when this team is gonna be the most healthy, and health is really what it comes down to.
If they stay healthy, they clear this 11 and a half by margin, in my opinion.
But, they are an older team.
They are-- you are relying on Matthew Stafford to make it through the season without, suffering any setbacks to his ailing back, which, was a much bigger deal last summer than it ended up being during his MVP campaign.
But I do think the, the Rams are, you know, clearly the best, roster in football.
I think they are clearly the most likely winner of the Super Bowl this year, which will be in LA.
And I think that, 11 and a half is a fair bet to the over.
I actually would prefer just to take swings on, you know, higher, you know, higher-priced, i- you know, outcomes like winning the NFC, winning the Super Bowl, because, you know, again, like, if they are s- if they stay healthy, they are making this win total, but they are also going to be mightily short, to win, the- both the NFC and the Super Bowl.
So I would swing for the fences with this Rams roster, considering that, a healthy campaign from them will likely end with a win, with, with a Super Bowl win.
Yep.
No, I'm with you there.
I agree on the approach 100% to shoot for ceiling outcomes on this team and not the median, kinda 60th percentile outcomes.
So yeah, I think they are clearly the most likely team to win the Super Bowl.
I might just, at the median outcomes, lean slightly to the under because- the schedule, particularly with travel the first few weeks, is really rough.
And just also the injury risk with Stafford, with Puka Nacua.
Also this Alaric Jackson situation, he might miss time with the suspension, and that would really hurt Matthew Stafford and the offense.
So- lean under, on the Rams win total, but certainly see their immense upside overall.
