Are Rams, Chiefs overvalued in betting markets?
Yahoo Sports Daily hosts Caroline Fenton and Jason Fitz are joined by senior betting analyst Ben Fawkes to discuss notable NFL win totals and why the betting markets may be overvaluing the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. Watch the full episode of Yahoo Sports Daily on YouTube or YahooSports.TV .
Video Transcript
The preseason Super Bowl favorite as things stand now is the Rams at plus 550.
Do you think that that's fair?
Do you think that's an accurate, you know, depiction of how you think this season may go, or are the sports books maybe overvaluing the Rams?
So yeah, I think they're definitely overvalued, right?
Sports books know that the, the betting public is going to bet on kind of the news that they saw, right?
And th- there's been no bigger news in the off-season than the Rams trading for Miles Garrett.
Now, potentially Aaron Donald could come back.
So there's been a lot of this positive news.
They obviously traded for Trent McDuffie.
Th- they've, they've kind of put together what they're dubbing, right, the super team, potentially.
You have Matthew Stafford coming back as an MVP.
I think they're the rightful favorites, but in terms of kind of talking to an oddsmaker as well, even if Aaron Donald came, he wouldn't even move the Rams that much up.
He might move them to, let's say, plus 500, plus 450, more for the public perception.
They're the highest power rated team by oddsmakers, which makes sense, but it, they are in a very difficult division, right?
We saw that last year, that division, I believe three teams won at least 12 games.
The 49ers, the Rams, and the Seahawks.
So, in the last 30 years, according to sports odds history, the Super Bowl favorite has only won the Super Bowl four times, right?
So the preseason favorite has only actually won the Super Bowl four times.
That was most recently the Chiefs in 2023, Brady's Patriots 2018, 2016.
Then you have to go all the way back to Peyton Manning and that Colts team in 2006.
So, just because you have all the hype preseason doesn't necessarily mean you get it done.
I think there's a lot of smaller concerns around the Rams, right?
They're very top-heavy.
Matthew Stafford, fantastic season last year.
There were those back concerns preseason.
I'm working on an article right now that I'll probably have out in the, either next week or the week after about the spread difference between the starter and the backup.
Stafford is now third.
He's the third most valuable quarterback, partially 'cause his backup is Ty Simpson, so we don't know what that would look like if Ty Simpson had to go in there.
There's been a lot of stuff off the field with Puka Nacua, and with all that, they're also going to play in Australia week one.
We have no idea what that looks like in terms of travel and recovery, and the schedule is difficult, especially early coming back from Australia.
So, there's a lot of things there.
I think as long as they make the playoffs, they're gonna be a team nobody wants to face, but I don't see this as a type of team that's gonna roll and go 15 and 2.
I think they're a tad overvalued in the market 'cause oddsmakers know people are gonna bet on them.
Yeah, let's get some other teams in the mix here, Ben.
So the Rams win total is the highest at 11 and a half.
The only other team with that is the Ravens, and then you have a bunch of teams that are stuck at 10 and a half.
The Seahawks, Bills, Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, and Patriots.
Which of these teams do you think has way too high of a win total and that you're staying away from?
Yeah, so one that I had, I had circled, and again, we can clip this off and I- I'll look bad in a couple months, is, is the Chiefs at 10 and a half.
They've, they've had a double-digit win total most of the time under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
They've only gone five and three to the over, obviously went under last season, and it's more just that concern of overall the roster losing a lot on defense, Mahomes coming back from the injury.
I think they'll have a good sense early on.
I think they'll play well until that bye, they're favored in their first four games.
But only 86 of 212 teams since 1990, about 40%, have gone over a double-digit win total.
I think the Chiefs, especially with a tough later season schedule, I think it, they could get close, but I'm still leaning to the under there at 10 and a half for them.
