World Cup Begins Next Week: Early Odds & Favorites
Kyle Bonn dissects the World Cup, detailing favorites, surprises, and new rules. Kyle gives his analysis and prediction on this year's winner and group stages.
Video Transcript
We're real excited to have Kyle Bonn back on the show because it's, I mean, it's that time of the year.
I mean, the World Cup begins next week.
We could have started next week with Kyle, but we wanted to get an early look at who people are betting.
And, and by the way, I think this is gonna be a very exciting, tournament.
Kyle, thanks for coming on the show, and I know that you're getting ready for it as well.
Appreciate it.
Yeah.
Thank you, Craig.
this is the most exciting time of the soccer calendar, so very much looking forward to it.
This is a sport that never ends.
we've got year-round soccer all the time, but, the World Cup sure is special.
Yeah.
A- and I think, Kyle, look, the, the reason why it's more special, let's begin with this, this year, is the most low-lying fruit, obvious reason.
It's in the United States.
Like, it's never avoidable.
I mean, I live in South Florida where everybody, of course, you know, Latin America, they follow the World Cup here.
But the fact that it's in the US this year, Kyle, to me, that's what puts it over the top.
And by the way, it may be decades before we see it back here again.
Yeah.
You know, I was talking to a friend of mine who is not a soccer fan, earlier this morning, and he, he was texting me, "Oh, how's the US gonna do?"
And I mentioned that this, that they're hoping to reach the quarterfinals of a World Cup for the first time since 2002.
And this is someone who is not a soccer fan.
And he goes, "Yeah, I remember that 2002 team.
I remember everybody going crazy."
And that was in Asia.
If that's- the kind of effect that a deep run for the US team- True can have a- across the world, imagine the kind of effect that a, a good tournament can have on this, this sport in this country on home soil.
All right.
So, Kyle, let's get started because this is our first conversation of the World Cup season, essentially.
let- let's go into, you know, who's in it, who the favorites are, if you think that the odds are correct.
We'll get into some of the surprises, but let's just start off with the favorite to win the World Cup this season, and do you think that the odds are properly priced having Spain, essentially France, and England all within those three It would appear oddsmakers are telling us one of those three wins it this year.
Yeah.
I think that's, that's correct, for the most part.
I think if any of those three teams don't reach the semifinals, it's a massive disappointment for them at the World Cup.
I think all three of those teams also would expect to reach the final and probably lift the trophy too.
So they're all strong contenders.
I have questions about each one, though.
Spain have had injury issues.
They're the best team in the world, I think, but there are some questions, the biggest one being to Lamine Yamal, who's in my opinion, the best player in the world right now.
At the very least, top three.
just 19 years old, unbelievable player.
He's gonna win multiple Ballon d'Ors in his career, but he tore his hamstring towards the end of the season with Barcelona, missed the rest of the season, and now there's reports that he could miss the first few games of the World Cup.
They don't need him to progress through the group stage.
I'm not worried about them there.
I'm worried about the lingering effects of that hamstring injury through the rest of the tournament.
Even if he comes back, will he be at full strength?
Will he be able to run as fast as he normally can, dribble, that kind of thing?
So I've a, a little, a bit of, of injury questions there with Spain.
There's also some other players who are either missing or struggling with injury.
England, very well-coached team, but there's been some questionable roster decisions from Thomas Tuchel, and fatigue could be a factor for them.
Arsenal reached the end of the Champions League, tournament.
It was a long Premier League season.
They've got a number of, of players who, who had very long club seasons that you wonder if maybe that could play a, a, a factor in the World Cup.
France, really good attacking team, but their coach, Didier Deschamps, is notorious for, for reigning that in and playing defensive first.
It worked in 2018.
It almost worked in 2022.
They're a very good team, but will they let that, strong attacking talent run free?
To me, the biggest miss from the top of the odds is Argentina.
The defending champions are plus 900 to win this tournament.
That's insane for me.
they are the, they have the, the one quality that is most coveted at a World Cup, and that is that they are the hardest team to beat.
They are so tough to beat.
Their coach, Lionel Scaloni, for me, is the best national team coach in the world.
Obviously, they have Lionel Messi, but what Scaloni has done is he has propped this team up to be one of the best in the world with or without Messi.
a- and, and they are a formidable team.
Plus 900 is crazy to me, especially when you look at Brazil at plus 850, which is also crazy for me.
Stay away from Brazil.
Yes, they're the most successful team in World Cup history.
They have not won since 2002, and they just don't have that top to bottom star level talent they usually do.
Neymar is washed.
he, he's just not it anymore and also may be injured for the tournament.
they've got a ton of players missing due to injury a- and a, a, a squad that already is thin.
I just don't see it for them.
L- let's get to Team USA here.
And Kyle, you believe that this new format that's in place basically gives Team USA a better chance.
And so I guess my question to you would be, was this strategically done because it's in the United States this season and the ratings?
I mean, there's conspiracy theorists who would believe that, or is it just simply put they got lucky?
They're in, they're in a format that makes it easier for them?
No, I, I would say it does and it doesn't make it easier for them.
I would say in the beginning it does.
The reason for the new format is money.
That's it.
Top to bottom money.
I- there's more games.
They've gone from 64 games, or, to 104 games, I believe, over the course of the World Cup.
So you've just almost doubled the amount of sheer volume of matches in the tournament by expanding from 32 to 48.
That's the only reason they expanded.
For the US, i- it means that there's a, a higher floorUh, there's always the risk that the US in the 32 team format could get eliminated in the group stage.
That is almost impossible in this new format- for them to be eliminated in the group stage.
Only the f- all fourth place finishers in, in the groups are eliminated, and then four of the 12 third place finishers are eliminated.
That's it.
So they can finish third in their group and still have a two-thirds chance of qualifying for the knockout round.
Now, where the group stage really matters when you put aside the fact that they're probably not gonna get eliminated in the group stage- Right where it really matters is setting themselves up for success in the knockout stage.
Here's the variance that they could enjoy.
I- if they win their group, which is gonna be tough 'cause Turkey's a good team, if they win their group, they would set themselves up to face a third place finisher in the round of 32.
Remember this year with the 48 team tournament, there's a round of 32, which there's never been before.
And then in the round of 16, they would face the winner of Belgium's group.
So Belgium probably one of the most beatable tier one teams in this tournament.
If they finish third or even second in their group, there's the chance that they could play Argentina in the first round of the knockout stage.
Wow.
It's, so that's what you're looking at where the group stage matters.
Are they likely to be eliminated in the group stage?
Almost impossible.
But it could make or break their tournament knowing that to me, now v- different people will say different things, the round of 16, reaching the round of 16 is the bare minimum for this team.
Reaching the quarterfinals, something they've never done since 2002, would be a unmitigated success, and reaching the semifinals would be a dream.
Okay.
So to get there, they have to have a good group stage.
Okay.
So, so here's what I don't understand.
This is why we have Kyle on.
guys, put up the graphic to odds to qualify from group D. W- why are all of these minus money, Kyle?
What am I missing here?
I mean, shouldn't somebody be plus- Because- or literally can all four get in?
No, all four cannot get in, but three of the four are likely.
So that's why you're looking at that, those kind of odds.
And in this group, there's no real bottom feeder.
Like there's no, there's no- team that everyone can beat up on and is very unlikely to reach the knockout stage.
That's what you're looking at right there, is that three of those four teams have a good chance of moving on.
Okay.
Finally, let's talk about the rule changes here, Kyle, before we let you go, and then we'll bring you back on, and talk more World Cup later in the week.
Yeah.
So there's gonna be a number of tweaks.
So y- you don't see this very often where, IFAB, the rule making organization, uses the World Cup as kind of a test run almost for some of these, rule changes.
But there's going to be, the ones you'll see the most, there is a time limit for substitutions of 10 seconds, which could matter because if the, the player coming off does not get off the field in 10 seconds, that delays the substitute coming on by a minute, so your team now has to play down a man for a minute.
and that- that could be a, a big thing.
Throw-ins, there's a five-second time limit, or else the throw-in goes to the other team.
That's new.
VAR can review fouls before a corner is taken, which is new.
so there's- a number of new things here that they're trialing that you may see, during the games.
And we'll have a lot of coverage here of course, on Sports Grid throughout the World Cup.
Kyle will be with, me on this show as well.
Kyle, thanks for coming on Newsline.
Really appreciate it.
Thanks, Craig.
Enjoy it.
