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2015.01.06

Top Risks 2015

カテゴリ： 🔴 【ニュース・時事・政治・経済・社会】

「かんべえの不規則発言」より引用
※　このＨＰは、引用が許可されている

＜1月5日＞（月）

○昨日は一日、FTでつなぎましたが、今日になってとうとうアレが出ました。そう、ユーラシアグループの「TOP10Risks　2015年版」です。今年のランキングは以下の通りです。

1 The Politics of Europe （迷走する欧州政治）
2 Russia （ロシア）
3 The Effects of China Slowdown　（中国経済減速の影響）
4 Weaponization of Finance 　（アメリカが武器とする金融）
5 ISIS, Beyond Iraq and Syria （イラクとシリアを超えるISIS）
6 Weak Incumbents 　（新興国の弱い現職大統領）
7 The Rise of Strategic Sectors （戦略セクターの台頭）
8 Saudi Arabia vs. Iran 　（サウジアラビア対イラン）
9 Taiwan/China （中台関係）
10 Turkey （トルコ）

* Red Herrings =リスクもどき

「アジアのナショナリズム」「イスラム国」「産油国」「メキシコ」

○今年は日本に触れている部分が少ないですが、「アジアのナショナリズムはリスクにあらず」と言い切っているところが面白く感じました。なぜなら習近平（中）、モディ（印）、安倍（日）、ジョコビ（ネシア）という4人の強力なリーダーがいるから。なるほど、そんな風に見えるもんですか。

○ちなみに去年はこんな感じでした。

1 America's troubled alliances
2 Diverging markets
3 The new China
4 Iran
5 Petrostates
6 Strategic data
7 Al Qaeda 2.0
8 The Middle East's expanding unrest
9 The capricious Kremlin
10 Turkey

* Red Herrings 　1 - US domestic politics　2 - Europe　3 - Syria　? - North Korea

○今年もじっくり読み込んでみる値打ちがありそうです。今宵は取り急ぎこの辺で。

　　　――――　序文　――――

とりあえず、この序文の部分を原文で引用
私も、後でじっくり読み込んでみよう（笑）

Top Risks 2015
Ian Bremmer, President
Cliff Kupchan, Chairman

Published January 5, 2015（ほやほやだな）（笑）

Geopolitics is back. As 2015 begins, political conflict among the world's great powers is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War.

US relations with Russia are fully broken. China is charting its own course. The ties that bind Europe are fraying on multiple fronts. Others--Gulf Arabs, Brazil, India--are hedging their plans and alliances in reaction to increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

Ultimately these realignments will reshape the world order, but for now their impacts, while noteworthy, are more regional than global. China's rise still matters less than the headlines imply. Yes, it's the leading trade partner for more than 100 nations, but China's political, security, and economic influence remains underdeveloped. It will grow quickly, but we're not there yet. Crises in the Middle East have produced a world with more refugees than at any time since the Second World War, though with muted implications elsewhere, especially given the newly limited relationship between Middle East turmoil and energy markets. Russian revisionism is a direct threat to swathes of Europe, much less so farther afield. And most of Europe has far too much keeping them busy at home.

For now, the bigger change is in the United States, and it is both accelerating those realignments among the powers and elevating geopolitical risk around the globe. There's a view that America is withdrawing from the rest of the world, and that withdrawal is giving rise to much more conflict. That's the wrong way to look at it. Instead, it is America's growing unilateralism that is having geopolitical impact. The United States in recent years has more often acted just like any other country: sometimes proactive, sometimes belatedly reactive, and sometimes indifferent--but with much greater impact. This is an evolution from America the global policeman, leading NATO, providing collective security across multiple alliances, and powering a transatlantic relationship that underpins global "rules of the road" while battling enemies of those rules when necessary. That historical consistency (not without its hiccups) has fallen off.

There's a paradox here. The new unilateralism is hardly caused by America's leader stomping around the world. Rather, it's America projecting power through an arsenal of disparate mechanisms that allow it more easily to act alone, and with less direct impact at home. The extensive use of drones to skirt conventional warfare. The employment of state-of-the-art surveillance for US advantage. And an important shift in policy: the use of coercive economic diplomacy to pursue American interests with less regard for allies. To this point, the US and Europe have worked closely together on sanctions and other punitive measures against both Iran and Russia. But we don't expect that unity to hold in 2015 as Europe begins to feel more economically vulnerable and US politicians, those in power and those preparing for 2016 elections, take a tougher approach. All of which creates a backlash that will roil international politics.

2015 will see more geopolitical challenges than 2014. In part, that's because the costs to the United States of risk aversion will remain low, though the impacts may be felt keenly else- where. A more robust American recovery surely helps. But so does the reality that the United States is a far cleaner "dirty shirt" geopolitically than it ever was economically. In most cases, this calls for patience, not panic, as cans are kicked further down the road--as we expect with deliberations on climate change, growing tensions in Asia, and probably nuclear negotiations with Iran. But American unilateralism is stoking dangerous trends: Russia is lashing out, the Middle East is fragmenting, Islamic radicalism is expanding, and Europe faces challenges on all of these fronts. I'm very far from a pessimist, but for the first time since starting the firm in 1998, I'm starting to feel a serious undercurrent of geopolitical foreboding.

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