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2011.01.24
カテゴリ： カテゴリ未分類
The below is the very preliminary draft of 1AC for February debate. Note: the contents will be reviewed and updated. This is for your reference only.
I am planning to get something from great 1AC by Mr. Y in January. Regards,
We support the resolution “Resolved: that Japan should rectify the TPP” with the following plan.
Plank 1: Japan should ratify the TPP
Plank 2: Subsidies for farmers are introduced in order to mitigate the impact of lifting the tariff.
Other details and identifications are operationally defined in the speeches and cross-examination.
Contention One: Joining TPP is the urgent issue for Japan
a) No other choice.
*****, former professor of Univ. of Tokyo in 2010: “We should NOT discuss if Japan should join TPP. It’s UNAVOIDABLE for Japan to join TPP. TPP is a kind of “international standard” and Japan cannot survive without joining TPP.”
*****, 2010: “Leaders from nine countries involved in negotiations for an expanded Pacific Rim free-trade pact on Sunday urged Japan to join the talks by the time the next APEC summit convenes in November 2011.”
Same source continues: "The TPP members were of the view that it would be good if Japan could make a decision soon to join the TPP, even though they understand that there are many domestic issues that Japan has to manage within the country.”
Contention Two: Government direction is unclear and slow.
Prime Minister Kan stated in a new-year address of Jan. 4, 2011: “June is one of the deadline to make a decision to join TPP negotiation.”
Contention Three: TPP provides economic merit to Japan
a) Japan as a whole
*****, 2010: “Joining a U.S.-backed trans-Pacific free-trade agreement would push up Japan's real gross domestic product by ￥2.4 trillion to ￥3.2 trillion, or 0.48 to 0.65 percentage point, according to an estimate by the Cabinet Office released Wednesday.”
b) Huge impact to industries
Same source continues: “The trade ministry estimated that if Japan neither joins the TPP nor signs economic partnership agreements with the European Union and China, while South Korea inks free-trade agreements with the U.S., China and the EU, real GDP will decrease by about ￥10.5 trillion by 2020 with the loss of 812,000 jobs.”
c) Export of agricultural products possible
Prof. ***** states in 2010: “Japan produces rice of 8.5 million ton per year, with surplus. It costs to keep stock of rice, so we have an option to export rice to foreign countries. In Australia, among APEC, Russia, Japanese food is popular. Furthermore, we should not forget China as a market. I think we have a big chance to export Japanese rice, as Chinese rice is not good for Japanese foods.”
d) MAFF’s loss estimate unreliable
MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery) disclosed Yen 4.2 trillion loss, however, it’s over-stated.
***** 2010: “Historically, Japan has not made discussion of liberalization, and postponed it. In case of TPP, MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery) shows estimate of damage, however, does not show necessary costs to avoid damage.
Same source: “(MAFF’s loss estimate) is the very pessimistic scenario, on assumption that Japan takes no countermeasure.”
We support the resolution “Resolved: that Japan should rectify the TPP” with the following plan.
Plank 1: Japan should ratify the TPP
Plank 2: Subsidies for farmers are introduced in order to mitigate the impact of lifting the tariff.
Other details and identifications are operationally defined in the speeches and cross-examination.
Contention One: Joining TPP is the urgent issue for Japan
a) No other choice.
*****, former professor of Univ. of Tokyo in 2010: “We should NOT discuss if Japan should join TPP. It’s UNAVOIDABLE for Japan to join TPP. TPP is a kind of “international standard” and Japan cannot survive without joining TPP.”
*****, 2010: “Leaders from nine countries involved in negotiations for an expanded Pacific Rim free-trade pact on Sunday urged Japan to join the talks by the time the next APEC summit convenes in November 2011.”
Same source continues: "The TPP members were of the view that it would be good if Japan could make a decision soon to join the TPP, even though they understand that there are many domestic issues that Japan has to manage within the country.”
Contention Two: Government direction is unclear and slow.
Prime Minister Kan stated in a new-year address of Jan. 4, 2011: “June is one of the deadline to make a decision to join TPP negotiation.”
Contention Three: TPP provides economic merit to Japan
a) Japan as a whole
*****, 2010: “Joining a U.S.-backed trans-Pacific free-trade agreement would push up Japan's real gross domestic product by ￥2.4 trillion to ￥3.2 trillion, or 0.48 to 0.65 percentage point, according to an estimate by the Cabinet Office released Wednesday.”
b) Huge impact to industries
Same source continues: “The trade ministry estimated that if Japan neither joins the TPP nor signs economic partnership agreements with the European Union and China, while South Korea inks free-trade agreements with the U.S., China and the EU, real GDP will decrease by about ￥10.5 trillion by 2020 with the loss of 812,000 jobs.”
c) Export of agricultural products possible
Prof. ***** states in 2010: “Japan produces rice of 8.5 million ton per year, with surplus. It costs to keep stock of rice, so we have an option to export rice to foreign countries. In Australia, among APEC, Russia, Japanese food is popular. Furthermore, we should not forget China as a market. I think we have a big chance to export Japanese rice, as Chinese rice is not good for Japanese foods.”
d) MAFF’s loss estimate unreliable
MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery) disclosed Yen 4.2 trillion loss, however, it’s over-stated.
***** 2010: “Historically, Japan has not made discussion of liberalization, and postponed it. In case of TPP, MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery) shows estimate of damage, however, does not show necessary costs to avoid damage.
Same source: “(MAFF’s loss estimate) is the very pessimistic scenario, on assumption that Japan takes no countermeasure.”
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