2010 Season Presents Puzzling Mathematical Results

If you can understand correlations, you can begin to understand something essential to success in baseball. Why? Because correlations show how one variable affects another variable. For example, we can see how strikeouts influence runs scored, and we would find that there is no notable correlation (actually true). The dictionary describes a correlation as a […]

CC Sabathia Does Not Deserve Cy Young

The 2010 Cy Young conversation had been a fascinating debate. It had raised questions about how to determine if a pitcher is successful, and the value of certain statistics. But, unlike other years, the 2010 debate has recently become quite a silly argument as the season comes to a close. The main discussion has been between CC […]

Yankees: Why Losses Today May Mean Wins Tomorrow

Yankee fans were unhappy—to say the least—on Monday night, when the Yankees surrendered first place to the Rays for the first time since August 3. Tuesday night, the Yankees got first place back, and breathed a sigh of relief. Amidst all that anger came an interesting thought: what if, by some chance, the Yankees didn’t win […]

Derek Jeter: The Curious Downfall

When you glance at Derek Jeter’s .261 batting average in 2010, the first thing you ask yourself is: do I need glasses. Why? Because, barring an extremely unprecedented surge, Jeter is on pace to hit below .300 since 2002. More concerning, it will be his lowest batting average since 1995, his first season, when he […]

Joe Girardi’s Crucial Mathematical Error Costs Yankees Game

Picture this: a game lasts over four hours, uses 41 players, features 374 pitches, has two blown saves, and ends in a walk-off hit by pitch — by Mariano Rivera. Welcome to Yankees-Rangers, September 11 (and part of 12), 2010 It was a peculiar game to say the least, and it was no surprise that such […]

Steve Phillips vs Omar Minaya

I was thinking that it’s about time someone compared the careers of current and recent GM of the Mets, Omar Minaya and Steve Philips.

Why Is A.J. Burnett So Inconsistent?

To say the least, 2010 has been a season of inconsistency for A.J. Burnett. After his first start of the season, his ERA was 5.40. By his sixth start, it was 1.99. 10 starts later, it was 5.25. Now, after his 27th start, his ERA stands at 5.15, and unless he can bring that down […]

Aroldis Chapman’s Fantastic Pitch f/x

The last time I tried to copy and paste a graph from Texas Leaguers Pitch f/x database, the information didn’t translate.  Let’s see if this works. Here is supposed to be the side angle of Aroldis Chapman pitches from his Major League debut two nights ago.  Notice the excellent tumbling, downward action of his offerings. […]

Is Robinson Cano Less Aggressive This Season?

Robinson Cano’s career has been a battle of improvement. And, for the most part, it has been extremely positive. After nearly winning the batting title in 2006, and hitting .306 in 2007, things looked pretty good for Cano. But, once he hit .271 in 2008, the Yankees needed an answer. The answer was Cano’s aggressiveness. […]

Player of the Fortnight vol. 3

It’s been a few weeks since we handed out any hardware, so we’re excited to present our third edition of Players of the Fortnight. (All stats courtesy of the inestimably valuable Fangraphs.)

A-OK without A-Rod? Not quite.

The Yankees placed Alex Rodriguez on the 15-day disabled list Saturday. The move is looked at as a precautionary one; the Yankees want to make sure that the injury does not turn into a bigger problem as we approach the playoffs. With a win on Saturday, the Yankees improved to 11-0 when Alex Rodriguez is not […]

The Kaline: Establishing a Mendoza Line For Hall of Famers

Introduction The purpose of this study is to establish a Mendoza Line for Hall of Fame hitters. After looking at the lifetime statistics of current Hall of Famers, Al Kaline began to stand out from the crowd. His .297 batting average, 3,007 hits, and 399 home runs seemed to be benchmarks for elite hitters. This […]

Pressing Matter: A-Rod’s pursuit of 600

Watching Alex Rodriguez swing for his 600th home run has been a frustrating experience. “Strikeout, groundout, popout” seems to appear in the box score every night. As he approaches plate appearance number 50 since home run number 599, it has become more and more evident that A-Rod is pressing. Here are four of Alex’s five […]

The story of Joba Chamberlain: Frustration, frustration and more frustration

Believe it or not, Yankee fans can be frustrated too. Hard to believe considering they have won 27 championships and are in the playoff race year in and year out. But occasionally, Yankee fans find something to complain about, something to criticize. And once you get Yankee fans going, there is no stopping them. This […]

Can Dan Haren be the game-changer the Angels need?

The Angels swooped in to acquire one of MLB’s best in Dan Haren. Seamheads writer Jess K. Coleman wonders if he can he the season-changer that the Angels need.

Dunn can be a big difference maker

What would you say if I told you that your team has just acquired Adam Dunn? You would probably sigh and say something like, “we better prepare ourselves for a lot of strikeouts,” or “another classic hit or miss player.” While those two things may be very true, Adam Dunn can be a very valuable […]

Player survey: Who is the most overrated player in baseball?

187 Major League players were surveyed to answer the question: who is the most overrated player in baseball? Keep in mind that when determining whether a player is overrated or not, evaluation is not the sole factor; public opinion also needs to be weighed in. As determined by the players, here are the top five […]

Renteria, Beltre also have shot at Hall

After exploring Johnny Damon and his chances at making the Hall of Fame, I thought it would be interesting to find out if any other players have a chance at accomplishing the ultimate baseball goal. Surprisingly, there are many players that appear on the same lists as sure Hall of Famers such as Derek Jeter […]

Johnny Damon is going to the Hall of Fame

On Tuesday, Johnny Damon recorded the 2,500th hit of his career. To many peoples surprise, it became evident that Johnny Damon, when it is all said and done, will have Hall of Fame numbers. If Damon matches his first half numbers in the second half, the 36 year old will end his 16th season with […]

Beware the Derby

The participants have been announced for the 2010 Home Run Derby. Among the participants are Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers and Robinson Cano of the Yankees. The Tigers and Yankees are both wrapped up in tight races in their respective divisions, and these two players are significant, essential pieces to their teams. Other participants include […]

History’s Biggest All-Star Snubs

Every year around this time, the talk amongst the fans, media, and bloggers centers on All-Star Rosters. No matter who is selected or left off, there are always those who are not going to be happy. Although one thing is for sure, it always makes for a great discussion. With all this talk about Joey […]

It’s Not Just a Year for the Pitchers

A lot has been written this year about the resurgence in domination by pitchers. It’s true that it has been a good year for pitchers but hitters have not completely disappeared although it may seem that way when a player like Omar Infante is selected for the All-Star Game. Last year, only 5 players batted […]

The year of fear. Not pitchers.

Take a moment right now to look back on the 2010 baseball season so far. About half a season has gone by, and the excitement has been inspiring. But, to be fair, every season has it’s share of excitement. However, in 2010, the accomplishments have an interesting twist. Consider the following list of some accomplishments […]

All-Decade Single-Season Wins Above Replacement Team: N.L. 1900-1909

When my friend Dan Hirsch turned me on to his fantastic new web site, The Baseball Gauge, not only did I immediately bookmark it and add it to my blogroll, but it’s been open on my browser for about a week now.  I just can’t seem to get enough!  Dan’s site is all about Win […]

All-College Teams (A Rosenblatt Farewell)

Before I begin, I’d like to thank Mike Lynch for this opportunity to contribute to Seamheads. It’s great to be a part of this amazing lineup of contributors. I live in Omaha, Nebraska, home of Rosenblatt Stadium and the College World Series. The final CWS game to ever be played at Rosenblatt will be either […]

Touring the Bases with…..Craig Wright

Craig R. Wright was the first of what today would be called a “Sabermetrician” to be hired by a major league baseball team. He was the primary author of “The Diamond Appraised” (1989), and with Texas Rangers play-by-play announcer Eric Nadel has done a radio pre-game show called “A Page from Baseball Past” since 1984. […]

Meet the New Park Factors – Part I

“It’s a park that could make you a hero or a bum.” – Stan Musial on the Polo Grounds, 1957 Stan Musial was truly one of the most consistently great hitters baseball has ever seen. With a lifetime average of .331, his slumps were like comets—showing up every few years, then disappearing in a flash. […]

The National Pastime Almanac and the Joy of Numbers

This time of year is my favorite for obvious reasons: Spring Training is in full swing, newsstands are peppered with baseball preview magazines, and the weather starts to warm up, allowing me to hang out in my back yard with a good book or magazine, an adult beverage, a strong cigar, and, eventually, a Red […]

The Seamheads Ballparks Database is Here!

The latest version of the Seamheads (aka KJOK) Ballparks database has been loaded to the site (see http://seamheads.com/db/databases.htm, then click Ballpark Stat Splits.  There is also a link for the documentation file.)

Fighting Fire with Fire

One of the defining features of our national pastime—and what lends it to such close statistical scrutiny—is the head-to-head match-up between the batter and pitcher. It’s an intricate dance that, repeated hundreds of times over the course of a season, yields meaningful insight into the nature of the game. This inherent importance is only heightened […]

Rating the 2009 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 12, 2009.

The Favorite Toy and the Home Run King Revisited

Last year I wrote an article about the top home run hitters and their chances of eclipsing Barry Bonds’ 762 circuit clouts.  Here’s a look at their chances after putting up another season’s worth of four-baggers.

How the Home Team Wins

In baseball, the home field advantage is relatively small compared to professional football or basketball.

More On Reinventing the Quality Start and How It Looks Historically

On Friday, on MVN Outsider (on a different site), I wrote an article called “Revisiting and reinventing the ‘Quality Start’”.  In the article, I took a different approach to the definition of a Quality Start and established new criteria.  Since then, after some other discussions, I have revised the criteria, making it a bit easier […]

Mark Kotsay, “The Cycle,” and a Look at Rarities

We’re no Elias Sports Bureau here at Seamheads but thanks to Baseball-Reference’s Play Index, this week, I decided to look at how rare hitting for the cycle is. On Thursday, Mark Kotsay became the 123rd player since 1956 to hit for the cycle and it was the 132nd time since 1956 someone has accomplished the […]

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