Karen Guregian: Should the LA Chargers strike fear as Patriots first playoff opponent?

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Karen Guregian: Should the LA Chargers strike fear as Patriots first playoff opponent?

Karen Guregian · MassLive

Mon, Jan 5, 2026 ·

5 min read

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FOXBOROUGH - From here on out for the Patriots , there are no tomato cans on the docket. There no longer any teams that will be considered soft or easy wins for Mike Vrabel’s team.

The playoffs have finally arrived, and the AFC is a real crapshoot.

The Patriots, as the No. 2 seed, drew the 7th-seeded LA Chargers. The two teams will be squaring off in their Wildcard round game Sunday night at 8 p.m.

The Bolts will be a tough out, but given some of the other possibilities - Buffalo in particular - this is a good matchup for the Patriots. It’s ideal for a number of reasons.

First, the Patriots get to take on a wounded Justin Herbert , who has been playing with a broken left hand. Better still, a banged up Herbert has to play in front of an offensive line that’s flunked in quarterback protection all season.

Herbert, who is mobile, was sacked 54 times during the regular season. Part of the cause is from both starting tackles suffered season-ending injuries.

While Herbert is as tough as they get, there’s only so much he can do with the walls continuously caving in.

Entering into their Week 18 loss against Denver , Pro Football Focus had the Chargers ranked second-worst at pass-blocking.

Herbert still managed to throw 26 touchdown passes with 13 interceptions during the season. And, he still managed to make jaw-dropping plays thanks to his titanic arm and mobility. His three primary weapons ( Ladd McConkey , Keenan Allen , Quinton Johnston) all had 700-plus yards and 18 touchdowns between them.

It will certainly help if Christian Gonzalez can lock down at least one of Herbert’s favorite targets, while Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones hold their own against the other two.

Herbert can certainly win games with his talent alone, and is a quarterback to fear especially if he’s given time, which has been a big if this season. Even with that, he did lead the Chargers to 11 wins.

By the same token, he does carry some significant playoff baggage.

While his talent and ability are obvious, he has yet to shine in the postseason.

He’s 0-2 in playoff games. He’s thrown two touchdown passes, and four interceptions. The latter came in last year’s Wild Card round loss to Houston .

In that game, he completed just 14-of-32 passes for 242 yards with.a career-low 43.8 completion percentage.

His 52.0% completion percentage during the post-season is eye-opening.

This season, Herbert hasn’t been helped much by a run game that’s also been stunted by the Chargers injury-riddled offensive line. Kimani Vidal and Omarion Hampton are good, but both are averaging under 4.5 yards per carry. Overall, the Chargers boast the 19th-best offense by DVOA.

Statistically, they’re better on defense. Their pass rush is decent, while they’re particularly adept at defending the deep ball.

Since Week 3, however, Drake Maye hasn’t met a defense he hasn’t been able to solve, and put up a ton of points on before game’s end.

Of course, following their win over Miami in the regular season finale, the Patriots were already talking about the Chargers with reverence.

“They’ve got an amazing quarterback, a good defense. Same stuff I’m going to say each and every week,” Stefon Diggs said. “It’s the (playoffs), everybody good.”

After Herbert, the Chargers other plus comes on the sidelines.

Jim Harbaugh, who won a national championships at Michigan, and has a Super Bowl appearance while coaching the 49ers, is a very good coach, and that will factor in.

Interestingly, he has already provided Mike Vrabel with some bulletin board material.

Harbaugh not only sat Herbert in the Chargers Week 18 game against Denver, which made sense given the injury and wanting to save him from that line for a week, but he sat most of his starters as well.

Whether it was his intention or not, that can be construed as Harbaugh doing his best to lose, and drop to the seventh seed in order to face the Patriots.

So naturally, it almost goes without saying that Vrabel will use that to his advantage.

He’ll also use the fact the Patriots got creamed by the Chargers Week 16 last season. They where thrashed, 40-7, at Gillette.

Several players remaining from that team haven’t forgotten that outcome and would love to even the score.

“I remember that day last year, it was tough. We got whooped, it’s tough,” safety Jaylinn Hawkins said. “Obviously, we’re a whole new team, whole new cast of characters, new coach and it’s the playoffs, so we’re just going in focusing on this. Knowing what we need to do and execute and come out victorious next week. We’re playing to win.”

Hawkins acknowledged that blowout loss to the Chargers a year ago would definitely add some motivation to the proceedings.

“I use it as fuel,” he said. “Last year I remember after the last game and we didn’t have the opportunity to go into the post season. This year, it’s a complete change, so we’re blessed to have the opportunity. Now it’s about what you do with it.”

Given all of the variables, the Patriots should win this game. They have a west coast team traveling east to play in the cold which usually bodes well for the home team.

It could have been Buffalo with Josh Allen . It could have been Houston with that scary good defense. But the Patriots wound up with the Chargers, the least frightening of the bunch.

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