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Patriots clinch playoff spot, MassLive experts debate best and worst potential first-round opponents
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- Patriots clinch playoff spot, MassLive experts debate best and worst potential first-round opponents
The Patriots are officially playoff bound following a thrilling comeback win over the Ravens.
Mike Vrabel’s team currently occupies the AFC’s No. 2 seed, and if they stay put, they’d host a home game on Wild Card weekend.
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There’s a path to the No. 1 seed, but The Athletic’s playoff predictor puts it at a 38% chance. Denver owns the tiebreaker, so the Patriots would need a Broncos loss to move up in the standings.
Obviously overtaking Denver and getting the bye is best case scenario for New England , but as it stands, the most likely outcome is the Patriots playing on Wild Card weekend.
So if the Patriots win the AFC East, which is an 83% chance, which of the three current Wild Card teams would be the best matchup for New England: The Chargers, Texans or Bills? And who would be the toughest opponent to beat at Gillette Stadium?
We asked our MassLive experts. Here’s what they had to say:
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Karen Guregian, Patriots columnist
Best matchup: Texans
Their defense is frightening. But if Geno Smith and the Las Vegas Raiders can post 21 points, I’m pretty confident Drake Maye & Co. won’t be kept off the board. Of the possible teams, their offense is the least scary. And I think between Josh McDaniels and Maye, the Patriots offense will score enough.
Worst matchup: Bills
Josh Allen is the best playoff quarterback in the playoffs. As the Patriots saw, he can overcome any lead. Beyond that, the Bills sense this is their best shot at a ring, with Patrick Mahomes out, and Lamar Jackson likely out, too. The Patriots stand in their way of finally getting to the Super Bowl. They’ll be tough to take out no matter where the game is played.
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Matt Vautour, Columnist
Best matchup: Chargers
First of all they’re the Chargers. They fade in January faster than New Year’s resolutions. Plus Justin Herbert is playing through everything from broken bones to scurvy.
Worst matchup: Bills
James Cook and that team he plays for. If Milton Williams , Robert Spillane , Will Campbell , Morgan Moses and TreVeyon Henderson are healthy, the Patriots can still beat the Cooks and their lousy receiving corps. But Cook could single-handedly end this magical season.
Mark Daniels, Reporter
Best matchup: Texans
Their defense is legit, but the Texans offense has struggled at times this season. Among the playoff contenders in the AFC, Houston has the worst-scoring group, averaging 23.1 points per game. The Texans rank 19th in total offense, 23rd in rushing and 16th in passing. Their team, which features quarterback C.J. Stroud and receiver Nico Collins , also ranks 31st in the red zone.
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Worst matchup: Bills
The Patriots have an advantage with Drake Maye against most teams in the NFL. The one quarterback who can equal Maye is the reigning MVP, Josh Allen. The Bills have the second ranked pass defense in the NFL. They have the No. 1 ranked run offense in the league. Buffalo is the toughest matchup in the AFC for the Patriots.
Lauren Campbell, Reporter
Best matchup: Chargers
Justin Herbert is dealing with a fractured hand suffered in Week 13, but hasn’t missed a game. How that impacts him for the remainder of the season and into the playoffs remains to be seen. The Chargers boast one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines and they have just one playoff win since 2013. Herbert was also awful in last year’s playoff game against the Houston Texans, completing 14 of his 32 passes with four interceptions.
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Worst matchup: Bills
The Patriots already beat the Bills in Buffalo once this season, and are undefeated away from Gillette Stadium going into Week 17 against the New York Jets . But all bets are off in the playoffs. Josh Allen has playoff experience and showed why the Bills shouldn’t be counted out even if they are down 21 points. New England struggled to slow down an Allen-James Cook offense in the second half of its Week 16 loss as the Bills scored a touchdown on five consecutive drives at one point in the game.
Chris Mason, Reporter
Best matchup: Chargers
It’s been far too easy to get to Justin Herbert this season and the Chargers quarterback has been turnover-happy accordingly. Opponents have pressured Herbert on 26.9% of his dropbacks (1st in the league) and hit him 67 times (2nd). The quarterback has thrown 12 interceptions and fumbled five times. That’s not a recipe for success for winning on the road in the playoffs.
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Worst matchup: Bills
Two words: Josh Allen.
Though he’s unlikely to win Most Valuable Player again this year, Allen is still the best player in the league and his game translates perfectly for January football. Throw in James Cook and a legitimate running game and the Bills should put up enough points to offset an underwhelming Buffalo defense. Though the Bills have been unable to get to the Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes atop the AFC mountain, getting out of the first round has been no problem: Buffalo has won a playoff game in five straight seasons.
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