Patriots vs. Broncos: Who has the edge? A tale of the tape

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Patriots vs. Broncos: Who has the edge? A tale of the tape

Karen Guregian · MassLive

Fri, Jan 23, 2026 ·

9 min read

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FOXBOROUGH - When the smoke cleared and the dust finally settled after the opening rounds, the top two AFC seeds were left standing.

On Sunday, the top-seeded Denver Broncos will host the New England Patriots , the No. 2 seed, in the AFC championship game at Empower Field.

En route to the perfect matchup, however, Denver was dealt a significant blow.

The Broncos have to hope they can advance to the Super Bowl without their starting quarterback.

Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle in the final minute of Denver’s overtime win over the Buffalo Bills . He’s done for the year.

The next man up?

Former Patriots quarterback Jarrett Stidham . He will oppose Drake Maye and the Patriots in the title game.

With that turn for the Broncos, the Patriots went from underdogs to prohibitive favorites. No team has been a 5.5 point favorite in the AFC Championship until now.

BETTING:Patriots -4.5 point spread is listed at -112 on DraftKings , for Sunday’s AFC Championship game against the Denver Broncos. Our comprehensive DraftKings Sportsbook review makes it easy to figure out how to use their platform. For all of the best Patriots AFC Championship odds , be sure to check out our expert takes.

That said, Broncos coach Sean Payton, who has won a Super Bowl with the New Orleans Saints , will do his best to mitigate the damage and give his team a chance to win.

Along with altitude, and a boisterous crowd, the Broncos still have a few notable advantages.

How does the AFC Championship matchup shape up? Who has the edge at each position?

Here’s the breakdown:

QUARTERBACKS

Breakdown:Having 2024 NFL draft classmates and first-round picks Drake Maye and Bo Nix go toe-to-toe would have been fun.

Having Maye vs. the Broncos backup doesn’t provide the same kind of buzz, although Jarrett Stidham being a former Patriot does add a bit of spice.

Stidham was a fourth-round pick for the Patriots in 2019. He was a backup to Tom Brady in the GOAT’s final season in New England . And, a possible heir. Obviously, that didn’t happen.

Stidham will be making his first-ever playoff start. And this is coming after not throwing a pass in a regular season game the past two seasons. Needless to say, the odds are stacked against him.

As for Maye, he hasn’t been quite as good in the post-season as the regular season. He’s fumbled six times (losing three) in the process of getting sacked 10 times in the two playoff games.

Aside from those ball security issues, Maye has delivered enough plays and game-winning throws to help the Patriots advance.

It also should be noted Maye has played better on the road than at home. During eight road games, he compiled a 72.1 completion percentage. He also threw 17 touchdown passes with three interceptions. His passer rating was 120.2.

Edge:Patriots

RUNNING BACKS

Breakdown:Over the last seven games, the Patriots have averaged 156.1 rushing yards per game (5.25 per carry).

Rhamondre Stevenson has been a force. He was immense in the fourth quarter of the win over the Texans , gaining tough yards on a pair of clock killing drives.

He’s also made big plays catching the football. And he’s been excellent in blitz pickup.

TreVeyon Henderson hasn’t done much in the postseason, but he’s always a threat to take it to the house.

As for the Broncos, J.K. Dobbins, who suffered a Lisfranc foot injury in early November, was back practicing this week. He was the team’s bell cow back and leading rusher at the time of injury (772 yards, 4 TDs, 5.0 ypc). He’s a terrific back, it’s just hard imagining him being full throttle after missing two months with that type of injury.

Rookie RJ Harvey (540 yards) has done his best to pick up the slack in his absence. He’s scored five touchdowns. He’s also developed into a big receiving threat out of the backfield. He just hasn’t provided the type of consistent run game Sean Payton likes to maintain balance.

Bo Nix was the team’s third leading rusher, so they’ll miss his ability to scramble and gain yards that way.

Edge:Patriots

WIDE RECEIVERS

Breakdown:Like the Patriots, the Broncos are dealing with injuries to key receivers.

Courtland Sutton is the main man, and a 1,000-yard pass catcher. He caught seven TD passes.

Tony Franklin (709 yards, 6 TDs) suffered a hamstring injury during the Bills win and is questionable, as is Pat Bryant (concussion) who was also injured last week.

Lil’Jordan Humphrey was thrust into a more prominent role and caught a touchdown pass.

As for the Patriots, Mack Hollins (oblique) practiced Thursday. It would appear he’s headed toward playing and that’s significant. He was a reliable pass catcher on third down, and a good blocker in the run game.

Beyond the return of Hollins, Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas all caught touchdown passes against the Texans and have been key contributors.

Diggs has been dependable on critical downs all season while Boutte has emerged as a star.

With two Broncos receivers battling injury, and Hollins returning, that influences where the needle points.

Edge:Patriots

TIGHT ENDS

Breakdown:Unlike the Chargers game, Hunter Henry (1 catch, 5 yards) was a non-factor against the Texans.

Henry, who had 60 catches for 768 yards with 7 TDs during the regular season, had made several big plays against the Bolts, and has been a consistent go-to-guy for Maye all season.

Austin Hooper has also been a reliable No. 2.

Henry hasn’t been particularly effective as a blocker, but Hooper has done a good job in that area.

The Broncos have Evan Engram , who’s been their top tight end. He caught 50 passes for 461 yards during the regular season with one touchdown.

Adam Troutman added 20 catches for 195 yards and a touchdown.

Still like Maye’s duo.

Edge:Patriots

OFFENSIVE LINE

Breakdown:The Broncos allowed the fewest sacks (23) in the NFL this season,

Their line features two All-Pro players.

Left tackle Garett Bolles and right guard Quinn Meinerz are considered among the best at their respective positions.

Right tackle Mike McGlinchey is also very good.

The Broncos have had injury problems at center. Luke Wattenberg , out since Week 17 with a shoulder injury, looks like a full-go to return.

Alex Forsyth (ankle), who has been starting in Wattenberg’s absence, is questionable.

Bottom line, the Broncos have one of the better offensive lines in football.

As for the Patriots, an offensive line that was pretty good in the regular season has struggled a bit. Drake Maye was sacked 10 times combined in the two playoff games.

Both rookies, Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson , have had some forgettable reps. Campbell alone has allowed 3 sacks, and 9 pressures this postseason.

Veteran right tackle Morgan Moses has played well.

Edge:Broncos

DEFENSIVE LINE

Breakdown:This is a strength vs. strength matchup.

The Broncos front has made every quarterback’s life miserable.

Nik Bonitto , who comes in off the edge, had 14 sacks this season. Fellow defensive lineman Zach Allen , a former Boston College star, led the league in quarterback hits (47), while the Broncos also had four players who recorded at least seven sacks this season.

The Patriots, meanwhile, haven’t exactly been wall flowers. The return of Milton Williams has energized the group. K’Lavon Chaisson has wreaked havoc with quarterbacks during the postseason. Harold Landry is still toughing it out with a knee injury.

Khyiris Tonga and Christian Barmore have been good up front along with Cory Durden .

Still, it’s hard to ignore how impactful the Broncos front has been throughout the regular season and beyond.

Edge:Broncos

LINEBACKERS

Breakdown:The Patriots linebacking corps has come on of late.

Robert Spillane , Christian Elliss , Jack Gibbens , and Jhalani Tavai have been particularly adept as run-stoppers. They still struggle in coverage with tight ends and backs.

The Broncos group is considered elite. Alex Singleton is the anchor in the middle. He had a 14-tackle game last week against the Bills.

Justin Strnad is an off-the-ball linebacker who has also been great at getting to the quarterback. Dre Greenlaw is another.

Jonah Ellis, younger brother of Christian, is a depth piece.

Edge:Broncos

SECONDARY

Breakdown:Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II is the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

He’s one of the best corners in the league.

Riley Moss and nickel backs Ja’Quan McMillan, Jahdae Barron round out the group.

Safety Talanoa Hufanga is second-team All Pro, with P.J. Locke riding shotgun.

The Patriots also have a few studs in the defensive backfield.

Christian Gonzalez , a Pro Bowl corner, has really come on during the post-season. Carlton Davis III (2 picks vs. Houston ), and Marcus Jones (pick-six vs. Houston) have made a ton of plays.

As for the safeties, Devin McCourty believes Hawkins and Craig Woodson make the defense “special.”

Edge:Even

SPECIAL TEAMS

Breakdown:Veteran Will Lutz made 28 of 32 field goal attempts during the season. He was 4-for-4 in the divisional round win against the Bills. He hasn’t missed an extra point all year. He’s 5-for-7 from 50 yards and up.

Jeremy Crawshaw averaging 47.6 yards per punt. He’s landed 30 inside the 20 yard line.

Marvin Mims Jr. is a two-time Pro Bowl returner, while Deron Key is an All-Pro tackling machine on the units.

Rookie Andy Borregales , who is perfect from 50-plus yards, has been solid after a difficult start. Punter Bryce Baringer has also been fairly steady.

Marcus Jones (two touchdowns on returns) is electric as a punt returner.

Overall, it’s a fairly even group, but the fact the Broncos kickers are used to kicking in the thin air points the arrow in their direction.

Edge:Broncos

COACHES

Breakdown:Sean Payton has a Super Bowl ring from his days coaching the New Orleans Saints. In Denver, he’s turned the Broncos into contenders.

While Joe Lombardi is the offensive coordinator, Payton is the mastermind behind the offense. He calls the plays.

Vance Joseph is the defensive coordinator, and a very good one.

Mike Vrabel’s rings came as a player. His Tennessee Titans team reached the AFC championship, and in short order, has a 4-win team one win away from the Super Bowl.

Josh McDaniels also has a draw full of championship rings as an offensive coordinator and has done wonders bringing Drake Maye and the offense along.

Edge:Even

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIGHT ENDS

OFFENSIVE LINE

DEFENSIVE LINE

LINEBACKERS

SECONDARY

SPECIAL TEAMS

COACHES

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