Patriots vs. Chargers: Which team has the edge? A tale of the tape

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Patriots vs. Chargers: Which team has the edge? A tale of the tape

Karen Guregian · MassLive

Fri, Jan 9, 2026 ·

12 min read

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FOXBOROUGH - “Now it really starts. The tournament has begun.”

Those were Mike Vrabel’s words inside the Patriots locker room following his team’s 38-10 regular season finale win over the Miami Dolphins .

Vrabel was prepping the team for their next challenge, as the Patriots are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2021.

The Patriots, at 14-3, won the AFC East and earned the No. 2 seed thanks to their stunning regular season turnaround from being a four-win team the previous year.

That set up their Sunday night showdown against the 7th-seeded Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Gillette Stadium (8 p.m. ET on NBC).

It’s a matchup highlighted by two of the best young quarterbacks in the game with Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who is in the running to win the league MVP after an extraordinarily good season, pitted against the enormously talented Justin Herbert .

The Chargers have won the last two head-to-head matchups, including a 40-7 shellacking of the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Week 17 last season.

A year later, the Patriots are a much different team with a new coach and revamped roster.

How does this Wildcard matchup shape up?

Here’s the breakdown:

QUARTERBACKS

Breakdown: Milton Williams sees Drake Maye and Justin Herbert as two peas in a pod. They’re quarterbacks with similar traits.

He’s right. They’re both tall, mobile, athletic, strong, tough, have elite arm talent and are adept at making off-platform throws.

The difference between the two former first-round picks?

Experience. Herbert has played longer, and has a few post-season games under his belt, even if it doesn’t qualify as being great.

This will be Maye’s first rodeo on this stage. So it’s hard to say with any certainty if he’ll rise to the occasion, or fade in the moment.

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In terms of this season, Maye had MVP type numbers, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 72% of his passes and throw for 8.9 yards per attempt.

He threw 31 touchdown passes with eight picks. Herbert threw 26 TD passes with 13 picks, all while under duress thanks to a porous offensive line.

If there’s a knock on the Chargers quarterback, he plays a little recklessly. He’s mistake-prone, as evidenced by the four picks he threw in the Bolts Wildcard loss to Houston last year. Herbert will also be playing with a broken left hand.

Those variables break the tie for a couple of pretty evenly matched quarterbacks.

Edge:Patriots

RUNNING BACKS

Breakdown:The Patriots tandem of Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson has really come on of late.

Stevenson, in particular, has been dynamic as an all-purpose back. Whether it’s running, catching the ball out of the backfield, or blocking in blitz pickup, Stevenson has excelled.

Henderson, of course, is an explosive play waiting to happen. He finished as the team’s leading rusher with 911 yards. He also had nine touchdowns.

The Chargers backfield features rookie Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal . Hampton, a dynamic playmaker, had a stint on IR with an ankle injury during the season. Currently, he’s battling another ankle injury, although it’s unclear if it’s the same ankle, or if he’ll even be able to play on Sunday night.

Vidal (646 yards), who recently dealt with a neck injury, has stepped in and filled some of the void, but the Chargers, who rely quite a bit on their run game, don’t appear to be healthy.

Edge:Patriots

WIDE RECEIVERS

Breakdown:The Patriots have a 1,000-yard receiver. The Chargers don’t.

What they do have is three pretty darn good receivers who gained 700-plus yards.

Quentin Johnston (8 TDs) is their speed guy and deep threat. Veteran Keenan Allen (4 TDs) has been a favorite of Herbert’s for quite some time. At 33, he doesn’t have the speed to get off the line like he once did, but he still knows how to get open. He led the team with 81 catches.

Ladd McConkey was a 1,000-yard receiver as a rookie in 2024, but didn’t hit that mark in 2025. He still led the team with 789 yards.

The Patriots have 1,000-yard man Stefon Diggs . Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas , Kyle Williams and Efton Chism III have all contributed, and have the ability to bust out with a big play at any time.

Losing Mack Hollins to an abdomen injury that has him on IR, however, was a significant blow. The Patriots don’t have anyone with his skillset - a 6-4, 220-pound contested catch machine.

The Bolts three-headed monster is more of a sure bet.

Edge:Chargers

TIGHT ENDS

Breakdown: Hunter Henry had a career season producing 768 yards of offense. He pulled down 60 balls including 7 touchdown catches.

He’s one of Drake Maye’s favorite targets on third down, or whenever the Patriots need a play. Austin Hooper has chipped in with 21 catches for 263 yards and 2 scores. He’s proven to be a reliable No. 2.

While rookie Oronde Gadson (49 catches, 664 yards, 3 TDs) had a very good year, he and Will Dissley (11 catches, 97 yards) haven’t been quite as impactful as Henry and Hooper.

Edge:Patriots

OFFENSIVE LINE

Breakdown:If this was last year, or any of the previous few seasons, the Patriots would lose this category. And easily.

Their offensive line was among the worst, if not worst, in the league by any metric.

That distinction now belongs to the Chargers. It certainly didn’t start out that way, but losing both starting tackles to injury was a devastating development.

Joe Alt , who was moved to left tackle, needed season-ending surgery for a high ankle sprain in early November. Rashawn Slater tore his patellar tendon in August during training camp.

So with their backups struggling, and the interior of their line also suspect, it hasn’t been pretty.

Justin Herbert was sacked 54 times in 16 games during the year, third-most in the league.

The Patriots, meanwhile, improved by replacing all but one player (guard Michael Onwenu ) on the line from the previous year. The line stabilized with the additions of rookie left tackle Will Campbell , rookie left guard Jared Wilson , center Garrett Bradbury and veteran right tackle Morgan Moses .

Maye was sacked 47 times in 17 games, so while not great, it’s not the train wreck it was last year. Not even close.

Edge:Patriots

DEFENSIVE LINE

Breakdown:The Bolts have one of the better defensive fronts in football, and that’s helped contribute to a unit that ranks No. 5 in the league, allowing 285.2 total net yards per game.

Even Mike Vrabel is a fan.

“They are statistically excellent in every category across the front defensively,” Vrabel said during the week. “They don’t just stop the run well ... they’re good on third down. They’re good on short yardage, excellent in the red zone.”

Da’Shawn Hand, Teair Tart and Jamaree Caldwell typically make up the interior.

Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu and Odafe Oweh are the primary edge rushers and they’re a handful. Tuipulotu has been a one-man wrecking crew with 13 sacks, and 20 tackles for loss.

Meanwhile, Mack and Oweh have combined for 13 more sacks. If that’s not scary enough, the three edge rushers all rank in the top 50 when it comes to total pressures: Tuipulotu (70 pressures, 10th), Oweh (47, 31st) and Mack (39, 50th).

As for the Patriots, the return of Milton Williams certainly elevates the group up front.

Christian Barmore isn’t the same player without him taking up double teams. Khyiris Tonga and Cory Durden also factor in up front. Tonga, however, has been out with a foot injury and if he’s unable to go, which is looking more likely than not, that’s a significant loss especially when it comes to stopping the run - one of the biggest keys for the Patriots.

K’Lavon Chaisson (7.5 sacks) and Harold Landry (8.5 sacks) have been the primary edge rushers. The Patriots have struggled all year to have a consistently good pass rush, although the group should be able to take advantage of the Chargers porous offensive line.

Edge:Chargers

LINEBACKERS

Breakdown:For the Patriots, the return of tackling machine Robert Spillane is much-needed.

He leads the team in tackles (97), but it’s hard to know how effective he’ll be coming back from an ankle injury. Christian Elliss , Jack Gibbens and Jahlani Tavai have been good in spots, not so good in others.

Spillane, Elliss (94 tackles) and Gibbens (81) are the team’s top three tacklers.

The Chargers, meanwhile, boast group of speedy off-the-ball linebackers with Daiyan Henley (103 tackles), Denzel Perryman and Troy Dye .

Henley is an ascending star who also has elite coverage skills. The Patriots linebackers have struggled in coverage with tight ends in particular.

With Spillane’s effectiveness in question, and the Chargers having more talented players in the group as a whole, the arrow points to the Bolts.

Edge:Chargers

SECONDARY

Breakdown:The Chargers have allowed just 179.9 net passing yards per game, 5th best in the NFL.

They boast a secondary that ranked second in the NFL in interception rate.

Safety Derwin James is one of the best in the league in practically every category.

Coverage-wise, James has the best DVOA against slot receivers this year as evidenced by his three interceptions, and seven passes defensed.

Along with leading the team in tackles (94), James has forced a fumble, has a couple of sacks, and is second on the team in QB hits with five.

Elijah Molden is the other safety while Donte Jackson (12 passes defensed, 4 INTs), Cam Hart (11 passes defensed, 1 INT) and Tarheeb Still (53 tackles) are the primary corners.

The Patriots boast Pro-Bowl corner Christian Gonzalez , Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones (3 INTs). They are certainly a formidable trio, led by Gonzalez.

Safety Jaylinn Hawkins leads the team with four picks, while rookie Craig Woodson is fourth in tackles (71).

With the Patriots utilizing zone coverage a majority of the time, that takes away from Gonzalez’ elite man-coverage skills. He’s played well, but isn’t quite at the level he was last year playing primarily man-coverage. That impacts the outlook with this group.

Edge:Chargers

SPECIAL TEAMS

Breakdown:The Chargers have Cameron Dicker , the AFC’s Pro Bowl kicker. He hit 38 of 41 tries (92.7) percent and is the most accurate kicker in NFL history with at least 100 attempts.

He’s also been clutch from distance, making five of six kicks from 50 yards or further. His long was 59.

For the Patriots, Andy Borregales was less accurate overall as he made 27 of 32 total field goals (84.8) percent. But he’s been perfect from 50-plus as he’s hit all four of his tries from long range. He nailed a 59-yarder in the season finale against Miami.

Punters JK Scott and Bryce Baringer are pretty evenly matched.

In the return game, the Patriots have a clear advantage in the return game. Marcus Jones is one of the best punt returners in the game.

Derius Davis , who has both punt and kick return duty, isn’t in Jones’ stratosphere.

Edge:Even

COACHES

Breakdown:If this was simply a Mike Vrabel vs. Jim Harbaugh deal, the two coaches would be fairly even in terms of their in-game impact.

It would be hard to give one the edge over the other. Both have previously earned Coach of the Year honors.

Harbaugh, who has won a national championship as a college coach, is 5-4 in his NFL coaching career in the playoffs, but is still looking for his first postseason win with the Bolts.

Vrabel is 2-3 as a head coach, all with the Tennessee Titans . One of his playoff wins came at the expense of the Patriots. It marked Tom Brady ’s last game in Foxborough.

Factoring in the entire staff, it’s hard to ignore the presence of Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has contributed to six Super Bowl winning teams.

His work with Maye and the offense is another feather in his cap.

Zak Kuhr has had to take on defensive coordinator duties in wake of Terrell Williams taking leave to deal with a cancer diagnosis and has done yeoman work under trying circumstances.

Jesse Minter is the Chargers defensive coordinator. He has a great reputation and is a coach on the rise. Greg Roman, who was previously a coordinator with Baltimore and Buffalo, leads the offense. He loves to run the football, sometimes to a fault.

The presence of McDaniels, however, swings it in the Patriots favor.

Edge:Patriots

QUARTERBACKS

RUNNING BACKS

WIDE RECEIVERS

TIGHT ENDS

OFFENSIVE LINE

DEFENSIVE LINE

LINEBACKERS

SECONDARY

SPECIAL TEAMS

COACHES

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