Breaking down the Patriots' 2026 schedule: Just how tough is it?
Breaking down the Patriots' 2026 schedule: Just how tough is it? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Video Transcript
All right, you've seen it before.
We're gonna find out, in two nights exactly where and when all these games are.
But Patriot's opponents outside of the division, I, I, I'm sorry- Wow I, I think it is a killer.
Bruno.
There's only, like Again, you have the two division games that are layups, but other than the Jets and Dolphins, I There- there's just, like, m- m- maybe one layup, maybe the Raiders.
People don't realize the Vikings had a winning record last year.
Did you know that?
Through all that hideous, ridiculously- Yeah, bad quarterback play bad quarterback play.
Yeah.
They're still not So is this a easy schedule or a hard schedule?
It's a hard schedule.
Obviously, the sixth hardest, if you go just based off of last season's winning percentage, which again I think is misleading, 'cause I think teams like Kansas City and Baltimore are coming back.
But the nerds at Sharp Football Analysis or whatever- Yeah I think that's what it's called, based on their 2026 win product, predictions tell us that they actually have the 12th easiest schedule, based on, again, their win projections for 2026.
Either way, they've more than doubled the amount of games they're going to play against playoff teams coming from last year.
Now, our buddy Cerrone Battle is taking the cheese on this.
He says the schedule really isn't that tough, just sexy names and popular teams.
Denver is the only team we know for a fact are gonna be great.
Do we know for a fact Denver's gonna be great?
Yeah.
Well, kind of.
Kind of?
Yeah, yeah.
We Kind of.
Quarterback?
He says everyone else just lost major talent, Hall of Fame coaches, injuries, and don't have quarterbacks.
KC, Baltimore, Bills, the window is closed on all three of those teams.
Well, oh, wait a minute.
I- And it's painted shut, Michael.
You know what?
I thought- It's painted shut when I read that the first time Oh, it's a better one.
Cerrone.
It's a better one.
I love you, man, but- Oh that one stinks.
Yeah.
Someone did, someone did break wind.
I like that.
I like that.
I'm not doing that, Cerrone.
I think you- That's his guy.
The heat check is brought to you by Eastern Propane and Oil.
In your neighborhood.
They're in your neighborhood.
In your neighborhood.
Who wants to go first?
Phil, tell me why- Listen, can I- Tell me why it's not a heat check can I just say, first of all, big picture, the way Warren Sharp does it is the right way to gauge strength of schedule.
What's he do?
No, it's not.
Guessing what people are gonna be come next year?
What's he do?
You just said it.
How's he do it?
The, the Chiefs last year, you think they're gonna be back, right?
Yeah.
Yes.
So let's take their record from last year- Oh, well, what if I'm wrong, though?
and throw it in the garbage.
No.
It's, it's- Because I think they're gonna be better, or- You just said it's not worthwhile.
Or, or- You're a very smart man.
Or Warren Sharp- I'm going with you on that one Warren Sharp, that dweeb thinks it's a better way to- So what he's doing, Cerrone, is he's- That's what he does he's doing what Vegas does.
Yeah.
He, he's trying to figure out how many games these teams are actually gonna win, because there are three variables in play that didn't exist last year, which is, number one, the teams themselves change.
Right.
And oftentimes quite a bit.
Number two, the teams they're playing, it's a different schedule.
Number three- Yeah the teams they're playing that are on the schedule, they've changed as well.
So, like, going off of last year- Which is why it's about all the reason- Going- All those reasons why it's a hard schedule so, okay, it's, it's a hard thing to Well, it's a hard thing to predect.
Then you- It's a hard thing to project- Then you- but it's a better way of going about it than looking at last year- Fine and feeling like you can learn anything.
You tell us, your projections- Yes is it closer to the sixth hardest or the 12th easiest schedule?
You want me to get to 10 wins right now for you?
No, no, no, no, no.
Just tell me, is it closer- Oh to being easy or hard?
Closer to sharp.
Closer to easier.
I'm not gonna say it's easy, because you're right, there's a lot of good teams on there.
Right.
Okay.
It's not, it's not last year's schedule.
It's not even close.
It's harder than that, but I also don't see, like, the hardest or one of the five hardest schedules in football either, because I can get to 10 wins relatively quickly.
They, they play seven teams that don't have answers at quarterbacks right now.
Seven?
Yeah.
Seven.
Okay.
Four in the division.
Okay.
Right?
Yep.
Steelers, Raiders, Vikings.
Okay.
Well, listen- Well, wait, wait, wait.
Hold on.
Hold on.
That's seven you should win right there.
No, since you're talking about it- Lock it in throw up the full screen seven wins.
Let's go.
Let's do it.
Throw up the full screen, Rob.
They do have answers.
Talk about it.
You just don't like them.
They got answers.
You, you like You think those are- I didn't say- those are representative quarterback positions?
But those are a- but Geno, Geno Smith is their answer for the Jets.
Malik Willis is their, pickup- No for the Dolphins.
That's an answer.
Who are you saying doesn't have an answer?
Who doesn't have an answer?
The Steelers, that guy's not on the roster, right?
They can't even find him.
Okay.
Well, here's- They thought he was in Pittsburgh.
You got- He might've been in Pittsburgh.
He didn't go to the building.
You're right.
You're right.
Aaron Rodgers- Minnesota Vikings, Kyle Murray's reportedly in competition with JJ, who stinks.
Yeah.
Right?
So that's not a real answer at quarterback.
Geno Smith, that's not a real answer at quarterback.
Okay.
You watched him last year.
Fernando Mendoza, I have no idea what that guy's gonna be.
So, like, based on the quarterback play alone, you could get to seven very easily.
Then you, if you split with the Bills, now you're at eight.
You split with the Bills last year.
Now you have to win, of your remaining nine games, you have to win two.
You have to go 2 and 7 to get to 10 wins.
It's very easy.
Burke.
It just did it.
Burke.
It's the simplest thing of all time.
I, I, I guess it's like- I don't know why you would look at me- Voodoo analytics right there and feel like it's not.
Yeah, I'm telling you- That is some fuzzy ass math that's not great math.
That is- That's great math, by the way that is crazy.
Fuzzy path math right there.
And here's the other thing, for, for the road.
All right, last year the Patriots were undefeated on the road, right?
Undefeated the entire season.
That's not gonna happen.
No, it's not.
That's not gonna happen again.
They're, they're probably gonna start off 0 and 1.
I'm not gonna come out and say the Patriots are gonna suck again, like I did last year.
But they're probably gonna start 0 and 1 their first game in Seattle.
But let's They Look at some of those road games.
Put that up again, that schedule.
Okay, but he, he- And at Brooklyn.
That's unbelievable can I tell you what else you're leaving out?
Last year, I think they set an- Yeah NFL record for the least amount of air miles traveled.
That's a factor.
Yeah.
They never went west of the Mississippi.
New Orleans was it.
I think they left the Eastern Timezone twice.
Okay?
So there, there's a stat out there, we, we can find it, that I think their air miles or travel miles was historically low.
We got Munich this year.
This year, you're already going to Munich.
You're going to Seattle.
You're going to Los Angeles.
You know, you're going to- LA Detroit, Chicago, I just said, LA.
You're going to Kansas City.
Look at that.
Okay?
So the air miles are gonna be different.
We don't know how these games are gonna be stacked.
You're gonna be getting your ass on a plane for multiple weeks.
That's all differentNever mind, you know, I know this isn't really a schedule thing, but it's adjacent to it.
You're not sneaking up on anyone.
Yeah.
I mean- You know, everyone, day one, is gonna be looking at ya, and you're gonna be circled, and watch out, these guys went to the Super Bowl last year.
I think, and listen, you can say the Steelers and Aaron Rodgers are a flight ri- They never really suck, you know?
And Mike McCarthy, I know it's not Mike Tomlin, so I guess there's a chance the Steelers suck, but I'd be surprised.
The floor on all those teams are really high.
The Raiders- Well, not all the teams Jets, and Dolphins I'll give you.
Right, right, exactly.
Those teams could suck.
I don't think any of those other teams are gonna suck.
Yeah, the Dolphins will.
The Dolphins will, really.
Yeah, no, the Dolphins- Yeah, yeah, the Dolphins will stink Jets, and, and Raiders might all suck.
Yeah, Dolphins and, Dolphins and Raiders.
I'm not sure the Jets will- The rest of them?
stink though.
Oh.
I, I'm not sure the Jets will stink like they have the previous- I feel pretty good about that 13 or 14 years.
I don't.
I, I agree with you.
I think the miles is a real, that could be a real factor.
I think how the games are stacked could be a real factor.
But to me, that's the difference between being a wild card team and winning the division.
It's not between maybe making the playoffs and being just a bad team.
Like this, I'm gonna hold this team to a high standard.
I think it's a good roster.
I think the head coach is good.
I think the quarterback has the chance to be great this season again.
And so, like, when you're starting there, that's a playoff- Oh, listen this could be a 10-win team in the playoffs.
I'm not ju- I'm not jumping ahead to their record.
I'm just telling you that's a hard-ass schedule.
It's harder.
Yeah.
That's all I'm telling you.
Yep.
And I heard you just say this.
Now, wow, now this hasn't been said in a while in, in New England, 'cause it was not said last year even though they had a great record.
Phil Perry, you just said they have a good roster.
You like the roster.
I like the ros- So- I think the roster got better.
Me too.
The roster got better.
They didn't resign any of their Well, how, how many free, their own free agents did they retain?
They lost Diggs.
Yeah.
They lost Kai Lavon Chase on.
They, yeah, that's a couple guys.
They, most of their free agents they let go.
but it got better.
Right.
So they lose Diggs and bring in Dobbs, that makes them better?
And Vera Tucker.
I think that's an, I think that's a, I think that's an upgrade.
Vera Tucker is- I think the offensive line- Injured, injured, Vera Tucker I would look at the two- Yeah big, bigger position groups, offensive line and secondary.
They're better at both.
I just think their schedule's gonna be a complete grind.
Meanwhile, how do you watch them?
Where, where do I find the game, and how much is it gonna cost me?
This is, you know, something you're gonna be talking more and more about.
The Department of Justice is investigating.
It's about time.
So I don't know if Trump is actually standing up for us or doing a favor for his buddy Rupert Murdoch, but at the end of the day- What do you think?
what does it matter?
'Cause it, it, we need it.
We need to look at this.
Peacock, exclusive Saturday game in week 17.
Prime Video, exclusive home of Thursday Night Football.
Netflix will stream season opener in Australia and two Christmas Day games.
YouTube TV will host five exclusive regular season games.
You've seen it before.
You've seen all the grids about what it takes to catch all of these games.
Phil, has it gone too far?
I think so.
I think so.
But, like, I don't know what we're gonna do about it.
I don't know- The, the- I don't know- the government is gonna get involved- step in and say- and s- and stand up- streaming's gotta go away stand up for Rupert Murdoch.
A- Oh.
I don't know, I mean they're gonna stand up- Oh for the consumer.
They're gonna stand up- Oh, yeah for the consumer.
Yeah, they- Because that's what they're there for I- They're there to fight for us, Mike I, I, I could give you 10 ways how the government could stand up for the consumer, and it probably has nothing to do with streaming or the NFL.
But that's a topic for a different day, and you guys could probably guess, of some areas where the government could help you save a few bucks.
Has it gone too far?
It's trending in that direction, but not yet.
Because, we just, we just pointed out the areas where we have streaming, but most of the time we do have free TV.
It's still free TV.
The NFL for what, 85, 90% of the season- But what's the trend?
it's free TV.
You know, the, the league's in the process of renegotiating a lot of these things.
Well- They're bringing in more and more streamers.
And listen, I think- I think the league will have to be careful though.
The league will be careful because, you know- If they're gonna take public money for stadiums- Right and public money for, you know, all the things that are adjacent to the league, the public is owed something of a payback.
And so I think it's absolutely a tipping point.
Well, I, I think the league will be careful with this because there's a little deal, there's a little sweetheart deal that the NFL has.
And the government can always say, "Okay, let's just start, let's just reinvestigate.
Let's open up and see what kind of arrangement you have."
this whole antitrust thing.
Let's just see.
Let's look at it.
And so I think, the NFL will be very careful on how it moves forward.
Okay.
