Decoding Top Picks for Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2026
Kevin Walsh and Tom Vecchio explain why edge rushers David Bailey and Rueben Bain lead the Defensive Rookie of the Year race with potential high sack numbers.
Video Transcript
The history of this award shades heavily to round one edge rushers, high-level draft picks who get after the quarterback.
That is what you want to look for, okay?
Mm-hmm.
So if we were to say top 40 picks who are expected to get after the quarterback, David Bailey.
I don't know about Arvel Reese or Sonny Stiles.
You'll notice Reuben Bain way up there.
Akeem Mesidor, Malachi Lawrence, Keldric Faulk, TJ Parker.
All right?
There's a couple of, you know, hand in the ground guys, but there is a reason that Bailey and Bain are the top two names that you see, because they are supposed to be the ones getting after the quarterback here, Tom, and that's again- why they start off the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Yeah, making game-changing and massive game-impacting plays, sacks, forcing fumbles, some of those potentially turning into touchdowns, are, are what are is what's going to set players apart.
Now, it's, it's obviously, as you said, skewed towards those type of players.
A cornerback can be fantastic, and there are times that he is fantastic, but the eye-popping stats and game-changing plays necessarily, you know, aren't there necessarily for those cornerbacks or safeties.
Having great coverage, you know, deflecting passes doesn't really jump off the page when you see a guy has six ten, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 sacks, whatever, it's gonna be a couple force fumbles, you know, fumble recoveries, et cetera, et cetera.
So i- it does skew heavily towards those edge rushers, and really, I, I think it will come down to those top two, of Bailey and Bain, and it does not have to be from a good team.
You know, we saw that last year- No with Carson Schwesinger winning.
Like, they can be a very bad team, and this player is simply amazing, and they have a shot to win.
And, you know, we were told Schwesinger was around 60 to 1, so it, you know I think Ab- part of it was Abdul Carter- didn't have the season he was supposed to.
And I think that's why Bailey and Bain are the starting point, but if they leave that door open, look, Sonny Stiles is gonna catch eyes if he's starting for the Commander's defense, right?
Could he be a 100 tackle guy?
I think Akeem Mesidor is gonna be interesting.
Off of the edge in LA, that's a day nu- that's gonna be a day number one starter.
I think we can expect that.
Mm-hmm.
You know, if we get to a spot where, you know, I think Peter Woods is a little more interesting than at least the market says.
And I'll just say, you know, I have no problem calling it out.
looks like every guy's numbers are better on FanDuel than DK.
Just- Mm-hmm 60 to 1 Peter Woods FanDuel, 30 to 1 DK.
But if Peter Woods is playing side by side with Chris Jones, does that free up Peter Woods a little bit to make an impact on a, on a Kansas City Chiefs football team?
I think that's certainly possible as well, Tom.
It, it is, and it, it really comes down to production, because he could be the best defensive rookie, but if he just doesn't have the counting stats, you know, that, that- Mm-hmm will always hold him back.
And this is what we say about, you know, offensive players as well.
If he's there and he can make more impacts just because the defense is w- or any player, they're, the defense is worried about, you know, the veteran player that is truly proven, therefore the rookie has a little bit more space.
The rookie may make an impact in terms of underlying metrics, in terms of, you know, pass rush, win rate, but he may not have the sa- the sacks and the forced fumbles that other players have.
And that's really where the discount has.
But that's not a bad ticket to have.
If you're getting it at a great price, knowing a player that can make an impact because there are other strong players on that defense, that's a worthwhile bet because you're making a bet on the talent and the scheme overall.
