McCaffrey still solid, Barkley comes back in 2026
Fantasy Football Happy Hour discuss Matthew Berry's way too early running back rankings and think managers may want to take a chance on an aging Christian McCaffrey and regressed Saquon Barkley in 2026.
Video Transcript
We're back.
Way too early running back rankings one through 20.
Bijan stands at the top ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs, Matthew.
Yeah, and obviously, look, I'll tell you, if I'm in a draft and somebody takes Jahmyr Gibbs at 101, like, I'm not blinking.
I totally get it.
It's really razor-thin for me.
I just, for Bijan Robinson, I just felt like, you know, especially with Tyler Allgeier leaving, I know that they signed Brian Robinson.
There's gonna be all sorts of jokes about, um- The B-Robs oh, oh, about the B-Robs and, and drafting the wrong B-Rob at the top of the draft.
But I feel like, I feel like Bijan Robinson will have more touchdown equity, this year.
Again, it's razor-thin.
You have to be really nitpicky here.
But I weirdly, all due respect, I feel better about the Lions offense overall when you've got Amon-Ra and you've got James Williams.
It's like that long.
Yes.
No, no, no.
But I'm, I'm saying- This man's speaking the truth here.
No, I No, I'm just saying there are more options for Jared Goff and the coaching staff in Detroit- Indeed in term- than there are in Atlanta, where I feel like it's really, like, it's Bijan, it's Pitts, it's Drake London, right?
And so you've basically got those three guys.
I feel like you've got There's more options in Detroit.
They get goofier as well.
as so, you know, just he's somebody that, you know, in his He had 11 games last year with at least 20 touches, averaged over 26 fantasy points per game.
Obviously, you know, almost 23 hard, 20- 300 yards from scrimmage.
he was the second-best running back in fantasy, but he had less than 40% of the team's goal line rushes.
If we can get that up to 60%, it doesn't even have to be 100%, like, if we can get that up to 60%, 65% of the team's, you know, goal to go rushing attempts, then I think, you know, to me he's the number one running back.
Again, it's razor-thin to me.
We love Jahmyr Gibbs here as well, but Bijan for me.
Any disagreement?
No.
I mean, I- Like, I would, I totally, I could totally get the argument for Jahmyr B- I'd have it the same way.
The, the, the thing with Jahmyr is out of, you know, him, Bijan, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs is that lightning bolt that could go from 80 on the dime, right?
Yeah.
But Bijan Robinson, he put up wide receiver two numbers.
Like, he- Yeah his, his receiving numbers are better than a lot of receivers in fantasy.
Yeah.
So that's the big difference.
Then you, we, here I am talking about Tua twice in one episode.
Tua e- was with Davone Bechan last year, 78 catches- Exactly year before that.
So it's, this is, this a walk in the park for Tua.
He just gotta do the same thing he did in Miami.
But the, I think that's a great point.
Exactly.
Like, I, people don't think about that, but that's absolutely right.
Like, Tua is very- And, and this is me saying that with not knowing the injury, status of- For Penix Michael Penix.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The hidden value, the thing with Tua as well, he's one of the best kind of ball handlers as a quarter back.
So- Like quick game, point guard.
Yeah.
He's very good with the deception and the handoffs and everything.
So I think Tua, will be fine for Bijan.
And also, like, they're not gonna throw it a ton.
Like, they're going to lean on Bijan.
I think it's also encouraging, with Stefanski in town.
Like, so Stefanski, he was just giving Quinton Jenkins an insane amount of work- Yep horse carries, last year.
He was obviously Nick Chubb- Yeah prior to that.
And with Gibbs also, like, there was some- Two-time coach of the year, Kev Stefanski.
And everyone knows that just like maybe he went for a third time with the Falcons- Maybe he does finally get back, to the playoffs.
All they gotta do is go nine and eight, baby.
That's right.
That's it.
Yeah.
The, the other thing too is with Gibbs, it's pretty concerning games at the end of the year for Detroit with the O line, Connor, just like, it just never clicked, and it'll probably be better this year.
They have some work to do.
They have some work to do though.
but there's some uncertainty there.
Yeah.
We'll see what they do in the first round.
That could be a, an area of need for them.
Yeah.
Christian McCaffrey at four, guys.
I wanna throw something interesting at you.
Christian McCaffrey coming off a career high in touches, 413.
He had a great season with volume last year.
His three highest volume seasons before that, right?
You look at 2019, he had 403 touches.
The year after that, played three games.
You look at 2022, he had 329 touches.
The following year, played six games.
You look at 2023, he had 339 touches.
The following year, played four games.
Are we due for another sub seven, six game season for McCaffrey coming off this kind of workload?
There's, that's always the risk with Christian McCaffrey.
There's, there's like a- That's like a cra- that's a crazy trend.
It's a cra- it's a crazy trend, and he's, he's, you know, he's over the age of 30 now.
he's a Disney dad.
I don't know if you saw- Nice you saw that.
I did not.
Did you see that video?
Maybe that gives him some new, dad strength though.
Some maybe, yeah.
He was, he was going through the parks with his kids.
look, the, the, the pro-Christian McCaffrey argument is that even at less efficiency, last year, you know, some of the underlying metrics were down, he's still, you know, a monster fantasy player.
And I think the pro The, the anti-McCaffrey argument at this high is exactly what you just said.
Y- you know, s- serious injury risk, he's over the age of 30, he's coming off a massive workload year, and to your point about the trend, like previous times where he's come off that massive workload, right?
He's, he's gonna turn 30 in June, sorry, he's not He'll be over 30 by the time the season starts.
Here's the, the pro argument though, is that no running back had more targets, receptions, or receiving yards than Christian McCaffrey, and so that saves a lot of wear and tear.
And then you think about what the current receiving options are for the 49ers, right?
I mean, so, yes, they have Mike Evans, also an injury risk.
We don't know what's gonna happen with Jauan Jennings.
We don't know what Ricky Pearsall is yet.
We've seen flashes, but he has not, he has not lived up to the billing as of yet, Connor.
George Kittle is, you know, we don't know when he's coming back from the Achilles.
Yeah.
Like, there's a, there's a very real chance that the leading receiver in terms of yards, receptions, and receiving yards next year on the 49ers is Christian McCaffrey.
Again.
Like, yes.
Right.
That's what I'm saying.
Yeah.
but, so I'm, it, so that's the argument, is that we're gonna save the wear and tear on him because he's gonna, he's gonna catch 90 balls again, or something like that, you know, whatever it is.
And so, but I mean, I mean, he actually had 102 receptions last year, but you know what I mean?
Like, I just- Yeah that's the- The, the- But there, there, there's no question.
Well, yeah.
It, he's a really tough guy to rank and it's, it's w- it's the same conversation we've had every single year.
You're either in or you're out.
You're, I mean, every running back's an injury risk, right?
Well, and I'll, I'll correct myself.
One of those years was the trade year, so it was the split season.
Right.
But the point is, two other times he's had huge volume years, not three.
Two other times, he's basically missed almost all of the next season.
Yeah.
So, and not saying that's gonna happen again, because he did have back-to-back years of high volume and been okay, but when you're getting closer to 30- Yeah you have a career high in 413 touches, he might justHe might be a little, well, you know, overworked at some point.
Yeah, certainly in terms of injury risk, the two things that you look for as you project forward, one, age, and two, workload.
And then also as well, just like do you have an injury history?
So, with like, you know, Todd Gurley has a degenerative condition with his knee.
There were red flags there.
McCaffrey, I mean, it's been You know, previously the injuries- Mm-hmm like he had some soft tissue stuff, and then moved past that, and then he was dealing with the Achilles tendonitis.
Yes And then he did the PCL, which I think is a bit more random, two years ago.
The thing is with McCaffrey is that- Yeah, they haven't all been the same injuries No some of it's just the bad luck.
It's all like a degenerative Yeah.
Exactly.
And the thing is with McCaffrey, clearly takes incredible care of his body.
We interviewed him.
For sure.
He is, in a good way, one of the most intense people I've ever come across in my life.
Yeah, for sure.
He talks about football like he's, you know, going into battle, preparing himself for war.
Exactly true.
And I think he takes his body, um- And look at his physique.
I mean- Yeah, he's insane.
And the other thing too is that- He's like a young Matthew Berry out there.
Here he is at Disney.
Like, here he is, Well, yeah, he was just, uh- He turned everything into a workout, right?
Yeah, exactly.
Like, yeah.
I like that by the way.
Underneath the bridge, he pulls it back, and then out in the sun.
Oh, look at him.
He hit a little juke move with the stroller right there.
Stroller on the track.
Yeah, exactly.
By the way, this is, this is, this, this is apparently footage of back What Pete should have done is just put his face over McCaffrey, 'cause I'm sure this is Pete was doing the exact same thing at Disney.
Right.
Back at Producer Pete.
Easy to confuse the two.
Yeah.
Exactly.
Yeah.
So there's Christian McCaffrey with his daughter.
Unbelievably beautiful.
Oh.
The old grilled chicken Disney dinner.
Yeah.
Well, now he's tired.
Yeah.
Exactly.
There you go.
Oh.
There we go.
Oh.
There we go.
There we go, the teacups.
That's Christian McCaffrey's brother?
There you go.
That is Christian McCaffrey.
That's the other McCaffrey.
For the By the way, by the way, look at what Yeah, two questions about this photo.
Number one, where's the wife?
She left.
Right?
Exactly.
She left.
I don't blame her.
She's drinking somewhere.
Number- 'Cause he's taking a selfie too.
Number Yes.
The other thing here is that I have known Pete Domalades for basically four years.
Known him for four years.
This is the first time in four years I've seen him in not a Mets hat.
You're right.
That is- Or the G- or the Giants.
Or the Giants.
Right.
Sorry, Giants.
Yeah.
This is the first time I've seen him in a non-New York sports baseball hat.
Yeah.
It's unbelievable.
Representing his alma mater of BC.
BC.
I guess.
But usually he I mean, like four years straight of Mets or Giants.
Yep, and it's winter, you get the beanies.
Some Rangers.
Though the Rangers host by Tuck Ervin.
The Rangers.
Every once in a while the Rangers makes an appearance.
Yeah.
Right?
So.
Yeah.
Sh- Shostak is dead to him.
Yeah.
I don't, I, I don't blame Mrs.
Backup Producer Pete for bailing, heading for the exits there.
but, back to McCaffrey.
Um- You in or you out, Lon?
I'm in.
I'm in.
Especially if I'm on the back half of the first round, 'cause you, because of how I like to draft.
If McCaffrey don't work out, well, I got the running back that I just took in the second round.
So and then I'm gonna take the handcuff later on anyway.
Like, come on, like he 900, he was almost the s- first guy to do 1,000 and 1,000 twice.
I, I, I gotta, I gotta be in on CMC.
The, the last thing on CMC is that with age you worry about, you know, a player kind of dropping off a bit, losing their speed.
I think that kind of already happened last year.
And he's still fine.
And he was already great.
That's a good point.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Like, I don't think he had a 20-yard run until like week 16.
Yeah.
And he, still he's very shifty, he's quick, but he doesn't have the same top-end speed that he did in years prior, and he's still, just because he's so smart, he's so good as a receiver, and he still does have enough quickness that he's still incredible.
And just, again, on a different team maybe it's a different conversation, but behind that offensive line with Kyle Shanahan calling plays, getting him in space, figuring out ways to use him, even at, quote, unquote, "diminished skills"- Yeah again, I, I, I'm in on McCaffrey.
Obviously I am at four.
I get the concerns, but I'm with you in terms of how he takes care of his body.
All right, that brings us to Let's go to RB9, Saquon Barkley.
Yeah.
Which last year, for a variety of reasons, the Eagles were a little difficult to figure out, Matthew.
This is another tough guy to rank because you know when he's at his best he is literally the top or second best running back in fantasy.
But coming off a down year, how are we able to stack him up?
Yeah, look, I'm banking This is me banking on talent, banking on the offensive line being healthy.
You think about Lane Johnson, Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, all of them were hurt last year.
It was just, the whole offensive line just never seemed to be fully healthy and gelling- Yeah the right time.
New play caller.
And by the way, and the play calling was atrocious.
They have made a switch there at, at offense coordinator, in part because Barkley was so ineffective, last year as well, right?
I mean, this is somebody who averages, in Philadelphia, you know, you see it right there on your screen.
This is somebody who, yes, he was RB15 last year.
That was tough.
But, he's averaging 21 touches, tou- as a Philadelphia Eagle he's averaging over 21 touches a game.
So that kind of workload, still young, still, you know, talent-wise one of the best running backs in the NFL.
So it's, it's me banking on a healthy offensive line, better play calling, and just Saquon being Saquon.
A- another guy, Matthew, I'm in on Saquon too.
It's like you got the highest of the high in 2024, and for a guy like Saquon Barkley on this offense where we expect the play calling to be different, this, that was probably the lowest of the low.
So if we could get something back to in the middle of that, that's a top five running back in fantasy right there.
To go for 1,100 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, and that's a bad year?
A down year.
Yeah.
That, that's, that's people's career year in the NFL.
So for Saquon Barkley, like you got him at nine, that's, that's respectable based on where he finished last year.
But he'll be back in the top five again.
And, and I, I would be happy to have pick number 11 out of 12 in my draft take Christian McCaffrey and then Saquon, in redraft, and, and go on about my way.
Yeah.
Just macro with these running backs and with, you know, workload risk off of injury and stuff, I think that we might now just be in an era of sports science where we just have to look at these guys differently.
Like Saquon, everyone expected Saquon to get hurt last year, right?
He still wasn't as good or as effective- but stayed healthy the whole season, had a massive workload.
and there used to be the old, like the, I think it was an Aaron Schatz thing of the curse of 370.
You have 370 carries as a running back, the year after is just, you fall off a cliff.
I think now we're in this world where like Jason Tatum comes off an Achilles, 10 months later just looks like Jason Tatum straight again.
Right, right, right.
Like, this wasn't happening five years ago.
I think these guys, like CMC, Saquon, Derrick Henry, they take such good care of their body.
They have so much more information and help in terms of nutrition and, everything around taking care of your body that I think these guys, they are much more resilient to workloads these days.
Yeah.
Um- That's a great point by the way- It's a real great point.
I, like, wish people on the internet just could hear what Jay just said right there.
yeah, completely agree.
you'd think with all the resources that are available to people, you'd think I'd take better care of myself- Yeah and I don't.
But- Instead, chicken tender Maddie.
Exactly.
NBC doesn't have a sports science lab for you.
No sauce.
It needs no sauce.
Just the bare tenders.
Pinot Maddie.
Dry tenders.
Yeah, and Pinot Maddie.
you know what's interesting though?
Just as we're seeing, you know, Barkley finish at 15, so last year in the preseason I did the, I did The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, right?
And so we did, there was, part of the interview was they asked me a couple of fantasy football questions just very And, anyway, one of the questions was, "What's a player that you think will underperform?"
And my original answer was Saquon, who w- was on my preseason hate list.
And then I'm just like, "Man, it's The Tonight Show."
Yeah.
Like, you know, it's like a big general audience that totally doesn't understand, like, fantasy football ADP.
Do I really wanna be on The Tonight Show saying I, quote, "hate" Saquon Barkley?
So I'm like, "No, no, let me go with another guy that I think will regress."
James Cook.
James Cook.
So it's the And by the way, it's the And that's of course the clip that the T- T- Tonight Show social team- Oh, they loved it.
Well, they, they didn't I mean, not as a, a thing, but like the day after, that was the clip they chose, was just the, you know, "My number one pick was Ja'Marr Chase, who's a player that I think will underperform.
My ride or die, Amari and Hampton, right?"
And so like that's the clip that I If you go to my Instagram, that's the one I have pinned.
But it's just like- And you took the leader in rushing if I should have had the guts and, and like I was right with Saquon, I was wrong with Cook, and I should have stuck to my guns and said I wouldn't draft- Good lessons for the kids at home.
Good lessons for the- Yes.
Yeah.
When you're on the Tonight Show- Have your own thoughts go with your initial gut.
Floor it.
Yeah.
Don't get hesitant.
well speaking of, you know, Matty, Pinot Matty guys- Yeah Chase Brown- Yes, sir last year kinda sunk you the first five weeks of the sea- Oh.
First six weeks- Oh, and seven.
Yeah.
First six weeks of the season he didn't get to 50 rushing yards- Oh, I'm aware, I'm aware in any of those games.
I am aware.
He had one touchdown, and then he really found it from week seven and on, and it's no coincidence, Matthew.
Like, this is somebody that it depends on when Joe Burrow's healthy.
It is, but what I feel really good about is that Joe Bu- as we mentioned in the, in the previous segment, Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco is now the backup to Joe Burrow.
And Jake Browning's gone.
And exactly.
I mean, but look at this.
Look at the starting.
I mean, like so Chase Brown, no surprise, when Joe Burrow was under there the offense was better, averaged almost 20 fantasy points per game.
But with Joe Flacco he was averaging 16.6, like very, very respectable, and he was single digits with Jake Browning under center.
So the fact that Joe Flacco, Comeback Player of the Year Joe Flacco is there behind proud fantasy life investor Joe Burrow, makes you feel better about, about Chase Brown again.
Because I just sort of feel like the, the Bengals offense will be If Burrow gets hurt again- Yeah it'll be a float with Flacco.
Yeah.
He- Who I think should've been a starter this year.
I'm, I'm surprised that Flacco- He thinks so too.
I know he does.
I saw that.
He's right.
I mean, I could've s- I, I wouldn't have been shocked if the Raiders chose him over- Instead of Kirk Cousins, yeah Kirk, Kirk Cousins.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, that Joe Flacco arm- He was in the mi- that, that thing is live still.
He was in the mix for Minnesota.
Minnesota was talking about him if they didn't d- get Kyler Murray.
Like, he was one- he was on the short list for, for Minnesota as well.
Yeah.
No, but Chase Brown, he really was just sunk by those Jake Browning games, or as producer Damian called him, on the pre-show call, Joe Browning.
trying to invent- Joe Browning Yes a, a third Joe.
Yeah, he's- A QB room of Joes this hybrid.
Yeah.
He's trying to sprinkle some of that greatness on him.
Yeah.
That what he trying to do.
Let's take a look at rankings 21 through 40.
We're obviously not gonna deep dive this list today, but to give you an idea where some guys fall into.
Quinton Judkins was the guy on the fringe at 21, DeAndre Swift right behind him.
David Montgomery now for now the lead guy in Houston- Yeah, right Matthew.
We'll see what they do in the draft, maybe with the 38th overall pick they get somebody to pair with him.
Kyle Munyoung guy, great to see him on that list at 32- Yes for the Bears.
It'll be interesting to see if he kinda passes Swift this year or if it's more of what we saw last year.
By the way, you sorta look at that 31 through 40 list or even like starting from like 25 on down, like again, if you go 0 RB- Yeah there's a lot of kinda these committee backs that, that- Yeah have, that will, that can be productive, and especially in an injury situation.
You know, you know that like, you know- I am staring Kenneth Gainwell- Right dead in the eye- Right on that list.
I'm saying.
When you talk about 0 RB, like Kenneth Gainwell, he's gonna be the guy.
Like, when you're stacked up with four receivers that you took in the first five rounds and you got Kenneth Gainwell there, it's like, that's a, that's precious.
A- and would it shock you if James Connor bounces back?
He's one of the guys like you don't really care that he's 30 now.
Yeah.
He's just, James Connor is just one of those guys that does everything the right way maybe.
Not an RB1 or even an RB2, but a viable flex player.
If he do it again, man, that'll be something.
Well, and when we'll see, we'll see what Arizona's offense looks like, but it could easily be, you know, actually pretty good, especially with, Jacoby Brissett under center.
Are you surprised and I know you and I both love Quinshon Judkins from a talent perspective, Connor.
He's one of your highest rated guys- Yeah last year out of the draft, but you know, you think about this Browns offense here.
He's not involved in the passing game.
Am I, am I too li- too low or too high on Quinshon Judkins?
I mean, they've rebuilt their offensive line, and I think they're gonna add a left tackle in the draft where, you know, and I know Todd Monken can draw up the offense.
I, I think there's a chance he, he would finish as RB13 to 15- Yeah if things go right for him.
So I'm, I'm high on Quinshon Judkins.
Again, he did get hurt- Right which factors into this as well.
He's gotta come back from an injury.
I think he can get double-digit rushing touchdowns, 'cause that's where it's gonna come from.
I don't know that he'll have much, as a receiver.
Yeah, he's not in the passing game and it sorta depends who's the quarterback.
Is it gonna be Sanders?
There's rumors of Watson's- That's a big issue coming back.
Yes.
Like, do they, do they draft or trade?
So anyway, who knows, with Cleveland as well.
But, but, anyway, all the positional ranks are up on rotoworld.com, nbcsports.com.
Go check 'em out and then, you know, tweet at me or thread at me- There you go @matthewberrytmr.
Love that.
Threading.
Let me know what you, let me know what you think.
what, what, what's right and what's wrong?
