And your 2011 World Series Winner is…

About 30 years ago, Bill James introduced a prediction system that picked the World Series winner with 70% accuracy. He wrote about the system for Inside Sports magazine in 1982, then expounded on it in his 1984 Baseball Abstract. He developed the system in 1972 and it accurately predicted the World Series winner at a […]

With Another 84 Contracts Sold and Some Postseason Players, Indy Game Continues to Produce for Majors

While the next few months before most Independent teams throw a pitch that counts is certain to bring a ton of headlines about franchises struggling and some welcome news on emerging markets, league executives can continue to boast about what a strong source the non-affiliated operations are in providing talent for major league organizations. At […]

The Pitchers: The 4 Levels of Greatness – Part 1

In a previous series of articles, I presented the 5 Levels of Greatness for the 20th century position players who posted Hall of Fame numbers during their careers – according to the CAWS Career Gauge.  We saw that there are one hundred sixteen (116) such players. In this series of articles, I will present the […]

The Hall of Famers: The 5 Levels of Greatness – Part 1

Consider the following statement: One third of the players in Baseball’s Hall of Fame do not have the credentials to be there. Or, to be more precise, 35% of the 20th century major league Hall of Famers do not belong in Cooperstown according to their performance records (on the field in the regular season). This […]

The Most Egregious Cy Young Award Snubs of All Time (at Least on Paper)

I recently listed the most egregious MVP snubs of all time and thought it was time to give the pitchers a little love (although not the ones who were awarded a Cy Young they didn’t deserve based on my WA2RB formula).  Rather than plagiarize myself and explain my thoughts and formula, you should head over […]

Koufax or Ryan? Tough choice for Torborg

Don’t ask Jeff Torborg to choose between Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan. The only man to catch no-hitters thrown by both can’t make up his mind. A former back-up catcher for the Dodgers and Angels, Torborg caught a perfect game thrown by Koufax in 1965 and no-hitters thrown by Bill Singer in 1970 and Ryan […]

2011 All-Star Rosters: Analysis in the Context of the Process

Each year casual and serious baseball fans alike enjoying critiquing the selections for the MLB All-Star game. Most often these amount to “snub lists” or selecting preferred rosters without consideration of the process that is in place for choosing the actual all-star squads. It is a separate matter to debate the pros and cons of […]

A New “Rule of Thumb” – 300 Win Shares

When fans talk about who belongs in the Hall of Fame, mention is often made of the three “rules of thumb” that have been around for some time.  That is, a player “deserves to be in the Hall of Fame” if he Has 3000 hits or Has 500 home runs or Has 300 wins as […]

All Phillies…All the Time — The Catchers

Herewith is the first installment of the All-Time Greatest Phillies Team. Before undertaking this endeavor, some ground rules… This is one version of the “Greatest Phillies of All Time.” The key word is “great,” and it will be used in the larger meaning of the word, that is, beyond pure statistics. This is sort of […]

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati

How exactly did we get here?  How did we come from St. Louis and Cincinnati having just a passing thought in each other’s minds to a knockdown, dragout rivalry between the two squads and the two fan bases?  And, honestly, why is there such a rivalry, Johnny Cueto notwithstanding? The history of Cardinals and Reds […]

In Memoriam Patato Pascual

Aquel comienzo de 1969 había sido muy movido para la pelota venezolana. Magallanes había clasificado a la final de cuatro equipos pero hasta allí llegó. Una vez terminada la temporada hubo más movimientos. Magallanes fue vendido a un grupo de Valencia. A medida que pasaron los días les pregunté a mis hermanos quién sería el manager. Me dijeron: Carlos Patato Pascual. “El mismo que dirigió a los Tigres de Aragua la temporada pasada”, dijo Felipe con cierta esperanza. Jesús Mario mantuvo su habitual escepticismo. “Esperemos que no deje tanto a los pitchers como Napoleón Reyes”.

A Good Old Fashioned Mano a Mano Fight in Milwaukee

Baseball fights still occur, but very seldom are they only a two-man affair. It seems the entire team has to show up now. But in baseball’s Deadball Era I have come across a number of one-on-one fights. One of the nastiest occurred in Milwaukee on May 8, 1913. The press coverage gives us the feeling […]

Ten-Man Baseball

I just finished reading Leigh Montville’s biography on the Babe “The Big Bam“. I’m ashamed to say that this was the first Babe Ruth biography that I have read, especially after reading a ton of bio’s about much more obscure players. One of the many factoids that stood out to me was this…. In December […]

2011 AL East Positional Analysis And Ranking: Designated Hitter

I am finally at the end of my series examining the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams in the AL East, on a position-by-position basis. The players at each position have been ranked in relation to their peers within the division, with each team being assigned points based on where their player ranks in […]

The Calm After The Storm

Yesterday’s deadline came and went.  Albertageddon peaked yesterday morning, but by the end of the day had calmed back down.  Life goes on. The man himself showed up today at camp.  He spent a good half an hour talking to the press, in a situation reminiscent of Mark McGwire’s address to the media last spring training.  McGwire spoke […]

Is Andy Pettitte a Hall of Famer?

As things currently stand, the New York Yankees will go into the 2011 season without Andy Pettitte as part of their starting rotation. We’ve known for some time now that this could be a real possibility as he had stated at the end of the 2010 season the same sentiment he’s made at the end […]

Lincecum Helped Shape, Reaffirm Tribe’s Draft Process

Lincecum almost became an Indian in the summer of 2005 (Photo: AP). Imagine for a moment a Cleveland Indians rotation headlined by CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Tim Lincecum. That is a rotation that would go down as one for the ages and match up with the all-time great ones of the past. Such a […]

Thinking About Jamie Moyer at 48

Jamie Moyer is old enough to have helped prompt the Chicago Cubs to trade Dennis Eckersley to the Oakland A’s in the spring of 1987, when Moyer was a rising prospect displacing Eckersley as a starter, and to have been traded along with Rafael Palmeiro to the Texas Rangers for Mitch Williams before the 1989 […]

The 2011 HOF Ballot – How Many REAL Hall of Famers?

The BBWAA 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot contains the names of thirty-three players that the baseball writers may vote for if they feel they belong in the Hall of Fame.  Of the thirty-three players, I view sixteen position players and four pitchers as “serious candidates.”  They are mentioned below. As we all know, the writers […]

The Ultimate Seven-Game Fall Classic: Game Two

In part one of my Ultimate Seven-Game Fall Classic series, I featured Game One of the 1988 World Series between the Oakland A’s and Los Angeles Dodgers.  This time around, I’m traveling back to the Deadball Era when pitchers still dominated the game and runs were hard to come by.  It wasn’t until the “Roaring […]

Bill James’ World Series Predictor Goes With…

More than 25 years ago, Bill James introduced a prediction system that picked the World Series winner with 70% accuracy. He wrote about the system for Inside Sports magazine in 1982, then expounded on it in his 1984 Baseball Abstract. He developed the system in 1972 and it accurately predicted the World Series winner at […]

The 2010 Pennant Winners (How They Came to Be)

Using Bill James’s Win Shares, I’ll take a look at how each World Series team was formed. The information can be found at my site The Baseball Gauge. This page compares all of the 2010 teams. The percentages refer to the team’s percentage of Win Shares that came from each category with their rank in […]

Ranking the Goliaths and Davids

The 2010 playoffs begin tomorrow and at first glance you would assume that the Tampa Bay Rays were carrying the banner of underdog once again. That would be wrong. The most under-privileged team teeing it up will be the Texas Rangers. Does their cheap price tag limit them? How far can we expect the light-weights […]

Yankees Need a Back-Up in Ivan Nova

As the New York Yankees thrust towards the playoffs, with a magic number of three as of this writing, some postseason roster decisions still loom––large. At this point, the concern for the Yankees is their pitching. Yes, CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, and most of the bullpen will be fine. But beyond that (the other two starters) the Yankees have […]

CC Sabathia Does Not Deserve Cy Young

The 2010 Cy Young conversation had been a fascinating debate. It had raised questions about how to determine if a pitcher is successful, and the value of certain statistics. But, unlike other years, the 2010 debate has recently become quite a silly argument as the season comes to a close. The main discussion has been between CC […]

Expectations Met

Well, it was a road game against a cellar-dweller.  Was there really any doubt how last night’s game was going to turn out? Just for kicks, here’s something interesting.  The last time the Cardinals won on Tuesday, they had a brawl during the game, as it was that sweep in Cincy that had everyone fired up. […]

York to Test Brett Jodie’s Latest Work

Since it may boil down to a classic example of hitting vs. pitching when the Atlantic League playoffs begin Wednesday, certain logic has to point to the two-time defending champion Somerset Patriots having the upper hand when they square off with the York Revolution to decide the Freedom Division’s representative in the league’s championship series. […]

More Of The Same

It’s a little checklist that Cardinal fans go through before games, to prepare themselves for what is to come: Is the opposing pitcher someone the Cardinals haven’t seen much of? Check. Does the opposing pitcher have a high ERA? Check. Is the opposing pitcher lefthanded? Hey, he’s not!  Maybe they have a chance! Of course, […]

Astros Come to Life in August

In the final month of the Astros forgettable 2009 season, the Astros inexplicably swept the National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies in a 4 game series in Houston.  The 2010 schedule also included a 4-game series with the Phillies, this time in Philadelphia in August.  The result was the same as the Astros brought their brooms […]

Fastball, Fastball, Fastball

On the web there are numerous video clips of Nolan Ryan throwing fastballs and they loop over and over, fastball after fastball ad infinitum, Ryan’s seemingly effortless delivery going on forever in some parallel universe where he will throw forever.  That was my mental picture of where Stephen Strasburg should be as he neared the […]

The Kaline: Establishing a Mendoza Line For Hall of Famers

Introduction The purpose of this study is to establish a Mendoza Line for Hall of Fame hitters. After looking at the lifetime statistics of current Hall of Famers, Al Kaline began to stand out from the crowd. His .297 batting average, 3,007 hits, and 399 home runs seemed to be benchmarks for elite hitters. This […]

Time for Red Sox to clean house

With the trade deadline come and gone and the Red Sox doing very little to shore up a run for the post season, perhaps the rest of this season is more or less try outs for next year. Of the regular players on the 25-man roster the following players should all be eligible for trading […]

Sweeping Our Cares Away

Earlier this year, the Cardinals took the first two games from the Toronto Blue Jays on the road and sent out Adam Wainwright to complete the sweep.  Wainwright, though, had one of his rare off games and the Cards weren’t able to use the brooms. This time, though, Wainwright was able to seal the deal and […]

Touring the Bases With…Dave Baldwin

The confrontation between batter and hitter defines baseball.  No one understands the scientific dynamic of those opposing forces better than Dave Baldwin, late sixties bullpen stalwart for the Washington Senators, a geneticist and engineer who studies batters and pitchers as mechanical and neurological entities.  His insights are fascinating and offer some important instructive insight into […]

Can Dan Haren be the game-changer the Angels need?

The Angels swooped in to acquire one of MLB’s best in Dan Haren. Seamheads writer Jess K. Coleman wonders if he can he the season-changer that the Angels need.

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