NFL analyst makes prediction for Patriots-Chargers Wild Card game

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NFL analyst makes prediction for Patriots-Chargers Wild Card game

Lauren Campbell · MassLive

Thu, Jan 8, 2026 ·

3 min read

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The Patriots have had success against the Chargers in the playoffs in the past. And one NFL analyst believes that will continue come Wild Card Weekend.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell made his playoff predictions Thursday and has New England emerging from its AFC Wild Card game against Los Angeles victorious.

Here’s what Barnwell had to say :

“Both sides could make a case that they’ll be better in the postseason. The Chargers didn’t have Omarion Hampton or Najee Harris, their two power backs, for most of the season. They have Hampton back now, and with Kimani Vidal sitting out the entirety of Week 18 despite being cleared to play after suffering a neck injury, coach Jim Harbaugh might lean heavily on his first-round pick. The Patriots did welcome back star defensive tackle Milton Williams -- who had been out because of an ankle injury -- for the final game of the regular season, though, and that’s a much-needed addition for a team built through its defensive line.

“Drake Maye’s ability to attack downfield is the way to beat this Chargers defense, as C.J. Stroud showed with his first-quarter outburst two weeks ago. Maye led the league in Total QBR on deep passes, and while the Chargers were the fourth-best pass defense by EPA per play against short and intermediate passes, that fell to 16th when teams attacked them with deep balls.”

Barnwell has the Patriots winning, 21-13.

What’s more, the longtime analyst believes the Patriots can make it to the AFC Championship Game before falling to the Buffalo Bills — who he has falling to the Los Angeles Rams , 38-34 in Super Bowl LX.

The Patriots and the Chargers did not face one another in the regular season, and the Chargers will go into Gillette Stadium well rested.

However, quarterback Justin Herbert is dealing with a broken non-throwing hand that he had surgery on in December .

“Getting all the swelling out. Getting better mobility of it, better strength,” Herbert said Thursday . “Getting back to the way it was before. So we’re always making strides forward. Doing everything I can in the treatment room, out on the field. So I thought it was good to have that week.

“Not taking hits on it last week was probably pretty helpful for it. Limited the swelling,” he continued . “Just getting back to making sure that you’ve got full strength being able to hold on to a football.”

New England’s offense has been incredibly productive this season, but it will be tested against a Chargers defense that ranked ninth in the NFL in points allowed.

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