Detroit's Troy Melton on the Mound; Analysis & Game Preview
Troy Melton grapples with the Orioles despite top stats. Joe Raineri and Tom Vecchio delve into tactics and potential outcomes as they share their picks.
Video Transcript
But they've lost three in a row.
They're four games out.
Now they've got Melton going tonight against Kramer.
And listen, Melton is a H- he's Look, the numbers look great, but boy, oh boy, does it feel like he's gotten away with murder.
A lot of hard contact.
A lot of barrels.
It feels like there is some regression coming his way, but I don't know that Baltimore is the team that is going to make that happen.
Although, I give them credit.
They've been actually pretty good here, Tom, down the stretch, and they're gonna need to be that if they're gonna overtake, let's say, Boston for one of those- final wildcard spots.
They, they really need to.
And, you know, to your point, I feel like e- every time we come on here, we're talking about Troy Melton or some other pitcher that's- Yeah just due for massive regression.
We talked about Melton last week, and yes, he continues to get away with murder.
And e- the walks and the hits, and they're not turning into runs.
And again, just to put things in, into perspective, you know, left on base percentage is an interesting stat or an interesting metric when you're looking at pitchers.
You allow runners on base in any capacity, hits, walks, whatever, and then how often are they getting stranded there?
Do you constantly pitch yourself out of trouble?
And obviously, things regress to the, the league average.
He has a 94.1% left on base percentage this year, and this is through 60 innings.
This is not some small sample size.
60 innings.
To put things into perspective, Chris Sale, who, you know, is was supposed to pitch today, the Mets Braves game got postponed because of impending rain.
Chris Sale, his left on base percentage is 82 this year, and Chris Sale's like a borderline NL Cy Young candidate.
Troy Melton's up- Yeah over 90%.
Like, he's due for that regression.
You can't just let runners on base for free and then just, poof, you don't give up any runs.
But to your point, the Orioles are not the team that are super threatening.
So when we look at this matchup, I think Melton is the better pitcher, but it's been smoke and mirrors better compared to Kramer, who's given up, what is this, two earned runs in, in three straight starts, six and four in two of the other starts.
I don't trust the, the Tigers, but I at least they're a competent team compared to the Orioles lineup, which I can't trust.
I agree.
It I wanna say runs could be coming here.
I mean, it wasn't a low- Sure scoring game last night.
I, I'm feels like runs are coming here tonight in this one.
You're looking at a total, it opened up at nine.
I, I still see nines, although it's juiced to the over here, maybe even a nine and a half.
But yeah, I think the bullpens are both a little suspect.
They're both a little worked right now.
So- Mm-hmm why not an over here, Tom?
And if you like Detroit to, to bounce back and get one here, their team total up and over may not be bad either.
It just depends on which one of these pitchers you're looking to fade here tonight.
I think both teams can get three or four across, and that puts us live for the win.
Yeah.
You know, if you're looking at a nine.
And the Tigers and Melton, I wouldn't back the money line.
I, I would think if they win this game, they're gonna get four or five of their own, the Orioles adding, you know, four, and then we're at nine right there.
5-4.
So give me the over before I took a money line on either side.
Now, if you had to, if you had to look at the future market right now, and between these two teams And by the way, the Orioles three and one on the year against Detroit, so they've done a pretty good job- so far of battling.
50 and 57 for Detroit, 52 and 55 for Baltimore.
Which one, if you had to bet, would actually make a run at this here once we get to August?
You know, which one has the better shot at actually making the post-season?
'Cause I certainly trust, if all things being equal, I trust Detroit's bat number one and two, Skubal and Mize.
I trust them over anything Baltimore's rolling out.
Yeah, Br- what it w- it would be Bradish and Shane Baz for Baltimore, which I couldn't possibly trust.
Listen, i- if Detroit can, you know, throw away a 10 game lead last year, hopefully they can make some of that up this year and go on some miracle September run to find their way into the playoffs, and Cleveland falls back, the Twins fall back, and they can find their way into the third wildcard spot.
The White Sox win the division in that case, but it would be crazy.
And I would have to take the Tigers.
Knowing that you have a true Cy Young candidate as a, as a game one starter, I would have to take them, but it's not with a whole lot of confidence.
