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THIS ISN'T 2021... Why I’m NOT Worried About a Sports Card Market Crash

As sports card values soar to record highs, many collectors fear a repeat of the brutal 2021 market crash. In this episode, Geoff Wilson shares 10 crucial reasons why todays sports card hobby is built on a much stronger, more sustainable foundation for long-term growth. SHOP CARDS & SUPPLIES Shop CardsHQ MARKET MOVERS Track card prices & your collection JOIN US ON WHATNOT CardsHQ Breaks CardsHQ Shop CardsHQ Blitz CardsHQ Hoops CardsHQ Poke DOWNLOAD THE SCI APP Apple Google Play FOLLOW SPORTS CARD INVESTOR Instagram X / Twitter Facebook MORE FROM OUR NETWORK Geoff Wilson Instagram Geoff Wilson YouTube Card Crew YouTube Market Movers YouTube

Video Transcript

It's okay to be nervous.

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Look, I get it.

We're all saying the same things.

"Wow, I cannot believe how much that card sold for," or, "I cannot believe what that dealer has that card stickered for.

It was worth half of that just six months ago."

And by the way, it doesn't matter if you're buying high-end or low-end, we're all saying these things.

Cards are hot and prices are even hotter at all ends of the market, especially for cards of the GOATs and iconic sets, inserts, and parallels.

But as we're sitting there looking at the high sticker prices on so many cards and seeing the record money being poured into the sports card market every day, many of us are thinking in the back of our heads, "Man, this feels familiar."

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Because we saw this before, we lived this before in 2021.

In early 2021, prices were setting all-time records just like today.

If you looked at the charts and market movers, you saw Jordan and Kobe and Brady, their card values were going almost straight up just like today.

The people buying the big cards back then felt invincible.

Social media chest-thumping was everywhere.

Cards had become the can't-miss asset class that would never slow down, until it suddenly did.

In the second half of 2021, oof, it was a little bit rough.

If that were a movie, it would've been a horror film for many collectors as they saw their collection values quickly die.

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And 2022 was even worse.

In fact, it took about three years for many card prices to finally stabilize and start to tick back up.

So here we are in 2026 with all of those euphoric feelings from 2021 back with us again.

So is history about to repeat itself?

In this case, I say no, or at least not nearly in the same way.

This is not 2021.

The sports card market today is a lot different, and next I'll give you 10 important reasons why you should be much more confident this time around in the future of sports cards.

The Jeff Wilson Show is brought to you by Arena Club, the official home of Slab Packs.

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All right, here we go from the Arena Club studio inside Cards HQ.

And let me start by saying this, sports cards are risky, and nobody knows exactly what is going to happen in the sports card market.

I can give you my best guesses, and today I'm gonna tell you why I'm confident, but nobody actually knows.

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This market is, just like any other market, it's somewhat unpredictable.

And even healthy markets can have corrections.

Even a healthy market could easily go down 20%.

We see it happen all the time in all kinds of financial markets.

In fact, even in a healthy market, there can be certain categories that could fall 50% or more.

That could happen.

So I'm not sitting here today telling you to invest freely in sports cards and think it is without risk.

It is the opposite.

It is with a lot of risk.

But what I can tell you and what I can share with you is what I am seeing, and there are a number of things that I am seeing that give me confidence in the fundamentals of the market and give me confidence that we are not going to see a broad speculative collapse of the market like we saw back in 2021 coming off of COVID.

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Now, if you sat here today and told me that six months from now that prices of a lot of the great cards were gonna be down 20%, I would believe you.

But if you sat here today and told me six months from now prices of a lot of the iconic cards would be up 50% from where they are today, I would also believe you.

The market could go either direction.

I'm not sure where it's gonna be in six months or a year.

What I'm a lot more confident about is where it's gonna be in 10 years.

I feel really good about the foundation of the entire market as a whole, and I think if you're buying cards and you're willing to hold them for the long term, there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic.

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And there's a lot of reasons to believe that what happened last time back in 2021 is not about to happen to us again.

And now I'm gonna give you 10 of the biggest reasons why I think that is the case.

And of course, once again, this is not financial advice.

I am sharing my opinions and takes based on what I have seen.

And starting at the top of the list, one of the biggest things I've seen, and I've said it on this show multiple times before, is the money is flowing towards the right cards.

Back in 2020 and 2021, there was a tremendous amount of speculation.

There was a lot of money going into unproven rookies, prospects, base cards, high population PSA 10s, and frankly, it was going into whatever player had a great game the night before.

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One of my biggest memories from that, you know, COVID era was when Trae Young had one game where I think he scored 44 points, and the next day some of his cards had, like, doubled or tripled.

That was commonplace back in 2020 and early 2021.

That is not so common today.

And that's not to say that speculation isn't still a big part of the sports card market.

It is.

We do our top five cards of the week on the Sports Card Investor channel every week, and a lot of those cards are cards that people are speculating on.

But the big money today, the, the-- if you look at the transaction reports today and you look at the cards that are pe- people are buying the most, it's not the Trae Youngs.

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It's the Michael Jordans.

It's a big difference.

It's a big difference.

And it, it's, it is definitely different than it was back in COVID.

Today, people are actually saying, "Do I wanna own this card for 10 years?"

Back in 2020, people were saying, "Can I sell this card for more money next week?"

So that's different.

And you can tell that by looking at who's driven this market, this bull run that we've had for the last 12 to 18 months where prices have gone up double, triple on a lot of key cards.

Well, whose cards have doubled or tripled?

Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Steph Curry, Shaquille O'Neal, Tom Brady, Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds.

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That's dramatically different.

If this were 2020 and 2021, the cards that would have doubled or tripled would have been Kon Knipple, Jackson Dart, Cam Ward, Connor Griffin.

Those would have been the cards that would have tripled.

But those aren't the names that I'm telling you right now that are leading the hobby in terms of their cards having gone up and their, and their transaction volumes leading the way.

And now look, Michael Jordan cards can still go down.

Kobe Bryant cards can go down.

Tom Brady cards can go down.

They did go down after the first part of 2021.

During the last dip, those cards went down.

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So just because you're buying the GOATs doesn't mean that you're not immune to the market softening or correcting.

However, however, those cards that went down of the GOATs back in 2021, 2022, most of those cards are now back to all-time highs.

Those were the cards that went down but then recovered.

Guess whose cards never recovered?

Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, Trae Young.

Their cards never recovered.

Trey Lance, I don't think his cards are recovering any time soon.

Right?

So once again, I feel much better about where the money is going today.

Because even if there is a market correction, I feel like the money people have invested in the great players, I believe those people, if they stick with it for the long run, are still going to eventually see a payoff.

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Reason number two why I'm much more confident in the market today.

Today, scarcity is much better understood than it was back in 2020.

In 2020, we saw rookie base PSA 10 cards become unbelievably popular.

People would buy them thinking, you know, thinking, you know, oh, you know, the, the, the supply's not that crazy.

Then another 5,000 copies get graded.

Then another 10,000 copies get graded.

Then another 20,000 copies of the same card get graded.

A lot of money was literally going into people stockpiling base rookie cards of players who they were speculating on.

You saw people posting on social media back in 2020 and 2021 how they had piles from the floor to the ceiling of base rookie cards of certain players.

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I remember a guy who, contacted me back then who told me that he was buying hundreds of thousands of dollars, hundreds of thousands of dollars of Kyler Murray rookie cards.

And he was stockpiling them.

And they, they weren't high-end.

He wasn't buying flawless and National Treasures.

He was buying like prism base and select base and maybe a little bit of silver thrown in, and just buying quantity and sitting on hundreds of thousands of dollars of quantity.

That's what people were doing back then.

People were ignoring supply and demand.

They were ignoring the long-term appeal of these cards.

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Today, what people are buying looks different.

On the-- You know, you're seeing people go after kinda rare inserts, cool inserts at all ends of the market.

Not even just the high end.

Of course, you know, Star Rubies and PMGs and credentials, of course, those have all become popular on the high end.

But even, even collectors who aren't spending that type of money on cards are still more tuned in with rarity.

They're still looking for opportunities to find cards that are less common, that are more rare, that have nice eye appeal, that have good scarcity that people may still want or desire in five or 10 years.

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So the scarcity component of what people are buying today gives me more confidence.

And by the way, the third reason I have more confidence today is I am seeing more collectors buying, not just flippers.

In fact, I'm seeing a lot of collectors, not nearly as many flippers.

I really felt like back in 2020 and 2021, we all saw it.

There were a ton of flippers in the game flipping, flipping, flipping.

And that's not to say that there's not flippers today.

Of course, of course there are.

Of course there are people out there that are, are just buying these cards to flip.

But what I will tell you is I know a lot of people who are buying a lot of cards just to collect.

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I know a lot more people, including on the high end.

A lot of these big cards, the big Ohtani cards, which are setting, you know, all these records and everything like that, those are going into collections.

Not going into resale categories.

They're disappearing in collections, and a lot of those cards aren't gonna be seen again anytime soon.

These people are, are holding the cards.

You know, back during the COVID boom, we saw somebody would buy the card, they'd immediately post it to Instagram, and put in their Instagram stories, "Now available."

And then if it didn't sell to Instagram, they'd flip it at a card show or they'd immediately put it on Whatnot.

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Today, I'm seeing people buy cards, and then a lot more of those cards go into collections.

And I think that that is really healthy for the market, and that is a huge fundamental difference between the card market today and the card market back in 2020 and 2021 that cannot be understated.

This alone, the fact that there's more collectors playing in the market than ever before, gives me a lot greater confidence in the foundation of the card prices today.

They've gotten high, in part because they're being bought by collectors and then not going out for resale again.

Once again, it doesn't mean that none of that's going on.

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Some of it certainly is going on, but I think a lot less as a percentage of that's going on today than it was back then.

And a fourth reason for confidence, this builds on the last, set building is quietly returning.

It's quietly becoming popular again.

Yes, I said set building.

Remember that?

Remember the lost art of putting together the complete set of a product?

This was something that, of course, people did all the time back in the 1950s and the 1960s and the '70s and even the 1980s.

When I came up in cards, it was popular to try to build the complete set.

In fact, I have binders from my childhood, from my youth, where I have built I don't think I ever fully completed an entire set, but I got close with certain sets like Score Baseball and Donruss Baseball from the late '80s and early '90s, and I've got binders full of those cards to prove it.

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I s- kept those binders through all of these years.

Of course, back then, people were trying to build the complete 792 card top set.

They're not doing that as much today.

But what they are doing is they're building insert sets.

They're trying to get the complete set of Dunkin' Go Nuts or they're trying to get the complete set of TakeItTo.net or Star Rubies or Precious Metal Gems or Downtowns or Kabooms or Mangas or, more recently, the All Kings or the Tecmo Bowl inserts.

People are hunting these cards and buying them because they need the card for their set, not because market movers told them that that card was up 28% over the last 90 days.

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That's not why they're buying them.

They're buying them to build out these insert sets, and I think that that's incredibly healthy behavior.

A set collector doesn't necessarily sell because a card drops 20%.

In fact, that might make them happy because now they can say, "Great, now I can afford to buy the three cards that I'm missing to complete my set."

That's a fundamentally different market participant than a momentum investor.

And I'm not saying everyone's doing this.

I, I-- Set collecting is still just a small segment of people who are buying cards today, but I think it's a lot bigger segment than it was back in 2020 and 2021.

And my evidence for that is by paying attention to social media.

You know, you can get a pretty good sense of which way the card hobby is going and what's becoming popular and how people are behaving and what they're doing by scrolling Instagram feeds of a lotta different collectors.

I follow a ton of collectors on social media.

I scroll Instagram, and I observe.

And what I've observed this last six months is a lotta people building sets, and there were not a lotta people building these types of insert sets back during the last boom.

That gives me confidence.

The fifth thing that gives me a lotta confidence today is what the data says.

Participation is enormous.

Now, the, the first four things I gave you in terms of why I'm confident, those were behavioral aspects.

Those were how collectors are behaving.

Now, let me give you some hard evidence.

Sports card single sales on eBay totaled $1.36 billion during the first six months of 2026.

The first six months of 2025, that number was $816 million.

That means we're up 67% year over year on transaction volume on eBay for sports cards.

67% increase year over year.

And by the way, it's not just eBay reporting record numbers.

All of the marketplaces and auction houses are reporting similar numbers.

I should say at least most of them are.

Fanatics Collect is doing record sales and is reporting its biggest auctions ever.

Heritage just reported its biggest auction ever in the history of the company for sports cards and collectibles.

So you're seeing this across the board, and what this means is it's not just the high-end market that's driving this, and it's not just certain big card sales that are driving this.

In fact, most of the high-end market, the really high-end market, they're not even really playing on eBay very much.

The really big high-end card sales, the ones that are setting the record headlines for $100,000 or million-dollar sales, those typically aren't on eBay.

So when I tell you that eBay is up 67% year over year, that's telling me that every, every price category of the market is up and transaction activity is up.

It doesn't matter if we're talking about $10 cards or we're talking about $100 cards or $1,000 cards or $100,000 cards, we're up everywhere.

And that to me is a really good sign, and it tells me the market is fundamentally strong and the number of collectors is growing and growing.

By the way, the grading numbers tell you the same thing.

Grading activity across the major graders in July hit a record 3.61 million cards graded.

PSA alone graded 2.49 million cards.

That total is up 54% year over year.

54%.

So grading year over year is up 54%, marketplace sales up 67%.

What does this tell me?

Tells me that the foundation is strong and there's way more collectors than ever before participating.

And we all know that PSA has this massive backlog of cards.

It's still approximately 11 million cards right now.

The grading number, the year over year increase in grading would be even greater if PSA were able to get through their backlog.

But they got so many cards sitting there, they're so overwhelmed that they can't even keep up.

Look, record prices, when you see those headlines, those can sometimes be manufactured by a small group of people chasing the same few valuable assets.

But transaction volume and overall participation and overall grading volume, those numbers can't be faked.

It's huge.

It is huge right now, and that gives me a lot of confidence that the foundation of collectors is wider than ever before, and I believe that that means great things for the future.

Number six, Fanatics still has enormous growth ammunition.

Don't sleep on this one.

Fanatics bought Topps back in January 2022 with the explicit ambition to dramatically expand the collector base.

In fact, Michael Rubin has repeatedly described their original objective as figuring out how to 10X the number of collectors.

Have they done that yet?

Well, I heard Michael Rubin make kind of an offhanded comment in an interview recently where he said he thinks maybe they 5X'd the number of collectors.

I believe him.

I think that's true.

Look at what Fanatics has done.

They brought athletes into the hobby.

They brought celebrities into the hobby.

They've blown social media marketing off the charts.

They've created more hype and more headlines for the hobby than ever before.

They've gotten more news headlines in traditional publications, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CNN, and ESPN, and sports publications.

More headlines about the hobby by far than ever before.

You're seeing cards on Sports Center now.

They've also innovated the products.

You got rookie debut patches, which everybody's buzzing about.

They've got Fanatics Fest.

They've got Topps Rip Nights.

They've got worldwide product distribution.

But here's a really key point.

They've barely begun doing this with their two biggest new licenses.

Topps became the NBA's official exclusive card licensee in October 2025, and then they picked up the NFL license in April of 2026.

That means that Topps has had the NBA license for about 10 months, and they've had the NFL license for about five months.

They accomplished a 5X growth in the number of collectors primarily on the back of a baseball license.

Now let them sink their teeth into the NBA and the NFL, and the NBA's international appeal, and the NFL's leading appeal in America.

I don't know.

This could go real far.

People talk about Fanatics' impact on basketball and football as though we're like five years into an experiment.

We're not even at year one.

And don't forget that Fanatics' footprint across many other leagues is, is fairly new as well.

They're just getting s- new soccer licenses.

They're still relatively new with UEFA and Bundesliga and MLS and Premier League.

They're getting the FIFA World Cup in 2031.

You know it, not too long ago, they got WWE and UFC.

I mean, most of these things are still relatively early stage.

There's a lot further Fanatics can take their marketing and their fan engagement in all of these sports, and they will.

And when they do, watch out.

So we're still early, and that gives me a lot of confidence about where things are gonna go.

The seventh reason why this is not like 2021 is because athletes themselves are far more engaged in the hobby than ever before.

Something interesting's been happening.

Collecting cards has become cool among athletes.

Have you seen Jack Haglion in our whatnot streams?

He's there.

Have you seen Cooper Flag opening up his card shop in Maine?

'Cause he's doing that.

Have you seen Carl Anthony Towns breaking like crazy and building his own card empire?

'Cause he's been doing that.

I'm sure you've seen Tom Brady announce that his card vault is gonna open over 100, I think he said 150 stores across the nation, 'cause that's happening too.

And those are just a few of the names.

We're seeing athletes come out of the woodwork from all sports wanting to get involved in the sports card hobby.

And this creates a flywheel.

Athletes collect, then fans see the athletes collecting, and then cards become culturally relevant, and then more fans collect, and then athletes become more interested.

It's a cycle.

Players start chasing their own cards.

Athletes react to their patches and their one of ones being pulled.

By the way, five or 10 years ago, athletes had almost no relationships with cards.

It was far and few between.

There were a couple.

There were a few.

Mike Trout was actually the biggest name athlete into cards by far, but he was an oddity.

There were very few athletes that were into cards even five years ago.

Today, athlete participation is becoming mainstream in the hobby ecosystem, and that means really good things for the future.

The number eight reason why this is not 2021, and we still got a bright future ahead of us, international growth may be the biggest untapped opportunity.

So at the National this year, I met more collectors from Asia and from Europe than I believe I had met in all of the previous Nationals that I've gone to combined.

Combined.

There were a lot of international collectors who flew to Chicago for the National this year.

It is growing.

It is growing in Asia.

It is growing in Europe.

It's growing in Australia.

It is, it is growing.

And think about it, Topps wants this more than anything.

Topps, Fanatics, they're building a global collectibles business.

In fact, s- they- they're so committed to this that they, that Fanatics opened up their own retail store, the Fanatics Collect store, in a very prominent location in London, a big store, specifically to help jumpstart the card market over there and to give Europe a premier flagship card shop.

They did this because they're investing heavily in major global soccer properties.

Of course, the NFL's got a deal in Europe as well.

They're investing in F1.

Basketball's got a big global fan base.

So Fanatics and Topps, they see the potential.

If they wanna 10X the number of collectors, if they can get Europe going, and if they can get Asia going, they might 20X the number of collectors.

They see the potential.

They're investing heavily in that potential.

They're bringing members of their team on internationally.

I met, at the National this year, a gentleman from South America who was on Fanatics' team helping expand the hobby down there.

There's multiple.

There's several.

They got reps all over the world, in countries all over the world.

They are trying to grow this thing everywhere.

And what that means to me is that even if the card market softens some in the US, soon it's gonna be a global market.

So a, a market that's softening in the US, yet expanding rapidly in Europe and expanding rapidly in Asia, that still may be a very solid market to participate in overall.

Now, it's important to think about the fact that this won't necessarily mean good things for every type of cards, right?

American football, let's say vintage American football, I would not be very bullish about a hobby expansion in Europe and Asia helping the vintage America football market.

I don't think anyone's gonna care, you know, what a Johnny Unitas card I don't think Johnny Unitas-- Sorry, Johnny.

I don't think his cards are gonna be resonating over in, over in Europe or Asia with the new collectors that are coming on board.

But basketball, LeBron, Kobe, Jordan, Steph Curry, Wemby, Cooper Flagg, there's massive potential there.

Soccer, even bigger.

Even bigger international potential by, by far, right?

So it gives me confidence knowing that we're going international to know that even if the market in the US hits some bumps, we got a whole new set of collectors that are bringing money in, and guess what?

We're all, all of us, US collectors, European collectors, Asian collectors, we're all chasing the same finite set of Michael Jordan cards, because they're not printing anymore, or at least not from his playing days.

So it's another reason to be confident, for sure.

All right, reason number nine.

I got two more to go.

Reason number nine, the infrastructure of the hobby today is dramatically better than it has ever been before.

Think about everything that exists now.

Grading, authentication, pop reports, pricing databases, instant comps, sophisticated marketplaces, free vaults, live stream commerce, global auctions, social media, YouTube.

I- it- it's- it's-- the hobby is everywhere you want it to be.

It's prevalent.

The services available to you as a collector are the best they have ever been.

And let me just as one example of that, let me give you the example of what PSA's created.

And you know this if you've created any cards with PSA in the last year or two.

You now It used to be, back, back during COVID, e- even during the last boom, 2020, 2021.

You send a card to PSA, they grade it eventually.

You get the card back in the mail.

Now, if you wanna, if you wanna safely store that card, well, you're on your own.

If you wanna sell that card, well, you're on your own.

Figure out how to do it.

Post it to eBay yourself, right?

Guess what happens now.

You send your card off to PSA for grading.

Your card grades, all of a sudden you get instant offers on your card through PSA.

Then PSA says, "If you don't accept one of their instant offers, hey, would you like to send this card to our vault?

We'll securely store it for you and insure it for free."

Then when your card's in their vault, you can sell it on eBay anytime you want.

Fixed price, run an auction, easy to do.

Super streamlines.

Guess what?

No work involved.

They've already taken the photos.

They've already written the listing title.

You don't have to do anything.

So what does all this do?

Well, it, it doesn't make cards worth more by themselves, but what it does is it removes so much of the friction.

Somebody spending $20,000 on cards today has substantially better tools for getting their questions answered right away.

Is this card real?

What has it sold for?

How many of this card exist?

Where can I sell it?

How do I sell it?

Will you help me sell it?

Who will buy it?

All of these questions get answered quickly in today's card ecosystem.

But these questions were actually a lot harder to answer even five or six years ago.

Once again, the foundation of the entire ecosystem is stronger today.

There's more transparency, there's more liquidity, and this means more trust, and that makes it easier for more people to participate.

It makes the market more, more mature, and it makes the market wider, safer, and just frankly better overall.

All right.

Number 10.

My final reason why I think you should be confident in where the sports card market is headed.

The hobby already survived 2021.

We already survived that stress test.

2020 and 2021 wasn't merely a boom.

It was followed by an absolutely brutal cleansing of the market.

People left.

People lost money.

Businesses disappeared.

Startups closed down.

Marketplaces closed down.

They couldn't cut it.

They started their businesses into the, into the boom, and by the time the boom went away and they were trying to operate, they ran out of cash.

Many speculative cards collapsed.

High pop rookie cards got destroyed.

Base cards got destroyed.

A lot of people took a bath on their collections.

This all happened just a few years ago, and yet the hobby didn't die.

Collectors kept collecting.

Shows kept happening.

Companies continued investing.

And eventually, the highest quality cards recovered.

So today's market is not an untested market going straight up.

This is a market that in the last five years boomed, then crashed, then consolidated, then recovered, then expanded again.

And that is actually a very healthy long-term story.

I'm confident, guys.

I feel good.

And let me be clear.

Don't confuse my confidence and all of the 10 points that I gave you with a message that, or with the thought that this thing's gonna continue to go up and won't correct.

As I said at the beginning of the video, any healthy market goes through correction periods.

If you told me six months from now that the sports card market had dipped 20%, I would not be surprised because at some point in time, the market is going to dip.

Nothing goes straight up forever.

Every market has ebbs and flows.

Every market has runs up followed by periods down.

And we very well right now could be at a top and could have a bit of a down period.

You can't predict that.

I can't predict that.

I can't tell you six months from now or a year from now or two years from now exactly where the market's going to be.

And look, there are reasonable reasons to be concerned.

I'm not bullish about everything.

Wax prices, sealed products are very, very expensive.

Print runs are getting higher and higher.

Parallels are being invented and, you know, millions and millions of parallels.

I-- Look, I get all of that, and there's a lot of buyers out there who unfortunately are still probably, you know, assuming that everything will go up forever.

They're wrong.

It won't.

It won't.

But despite all of that, if we look out five years, 10 years, I'm very bullish about where we're going.

And I am still buying cards today, a lot of cards.

Now, I'm being more selective about what I'm buying because you can't find the value that you found 18 months ago or 24 months ago on a lot of cards, but I'm still buying.

I'm still bullish.

And if the cards that I'm buying today go down in price in the next six months or year or two years, I'm not gonna sweat it.

I'm gonna continue to hold those cards because I absolutely believe that for the 10 reasons I gave you during this video, the market's gonna be strong, and those cards eventually will look like really good investments compared to what I'm getting them at today.

So there you go.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on this.

Let me know your thoughts in the YouTube comments.

And please don't forget that these Jeff Wilson Shows are available on the Jeff Wilson Show channel on YouTube.

They're also available on Apple Podcasts and on Spotify, so make sure you're subscribed everywhere, and I'll see you soon with my next one.

Take care.

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