Roch Cholowsky, Grady Emerson and White Sox Decision in 2026 MLB Draft
The White Sox face a franchise-altering decision between Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft.
Video Transcript
Sam Phelan here with the White Sox Roundtable, and the MLB draft is here.
The wait is finally over for the Chicago White Sox, who have the number one overall pick in the 2026 MLB draft.
An opportunity for Chicago, a team that overachieved during the first half of the season, to add another piece to the promising young core.
It will be the third time in franchise history that the White Sox pick first overall, giving them a chance to select a prospect that will immediately become one of the highest touted prospects in the sport.
Winning the draft lottery, securing this year's top selection, I thought it could change the course of the franchise for the next decade.
And whoever the White Sox pick at number one will certainly do that.
For Chris Getz and his front office, this number one pick comes with even greater burden to get it right, because what was once viewed as a very clear-cut choice has developed into a pretty widespread debate among fans, pundits, pretty much everybody in the baseball world.
So before Commissioner Rob Manfred takes the stage in Philadelphia on Saturday and announces a name that will alter the course of White Sox history, it's time to examine the options facing Chicago, the latest rumors, how we reached this point, and my final prediction.
When the White Sox first got number one overall, UCLA shortstop Rock Chalowski was the clear-cut choice at the top of the draft.
He was coming off a season in which he batted .353 with twenty-three home runs and an 1190 OPS as a sophomore while playing elite defense at shortstop for one of the best teams in the country.
Evaluators talked about Chalowski like he was the best collegiate shortstop prospect in the last twenty years, making the draft lottery feel more like the Rock Chalowski sweepstakes rather than the lottery.
Chicago won, but the landscape has seemed to shift in the months since.
While Chalowski had another strong season at UCLA, he didn't quite elevate his performance to that next level the way some hoped.
In sixty games, he hit twenty-one home runs with a .320 average and a 1088 OPS.
Add in the typical prospect fatigue that exists for anybody, but especially a number one prospect who has been that projected first prospect for more than a calendar year, and the discussion has opened.
The other candidate, Grady Emerson, is an eighteen-year-old shortstop from Fort Worth Christian School.
He has entered the conversation with some scouts believing he's the best player in the draft.
MLB Pipeline now has Emerson ranked as the top prospect in the draft class above Chalowski, saying that scouts have a difficult time finding any flaws in Emerson's game, with one noting that the worst thing they can say about him is he's not Bobby Witt Jr. That is high praise.
But frankly, the age disparity between Chalowski and Emerson makes it pretty hard to, determine which one is better and compare them on an even playing field.
Chalowski versin-- versus Emerson is more of a matter of preference, high school versus college, and that preference is likely determined by the organization's philosophy.
Chalowski is the safer selection, so to speak.
In his current form, he's more advanced than Emerson.
He wasn't the same caliber of prospect, though, when he was eighteen years old.
So while he may not possess the same astronomical ceiling as a five-tool MVP candidate like Emerson could be, there is a much larger sample size here of Chalowski succeeding against better competition than we have seen Emerson face thus far.
So there is a more sure bet, a guy who's quicker to the big leagues.
That could be used as a positive or a negative, depending on if the organization is prioritizing aggressive building or balanced organizational depth.
Then there's Emerson, and he kind of represents the upside play.
He's got more speed than Chalowski.
He bats from the left side.
He projects to possess five above average tools if everything develops according to plan.
Emerson's power, though, hasn't really shown itself consistently in games just yet, but it should, come more as he fills out his frame and matures.
Therein lies the debate.
Do the White Sox take that proven college product, the high floor bet with Chalowski, or do they bet on the real upside and projectability of Grady Emerson?
Perhaps more importantly, does the organization even view the advantages and drawbacks of each player the same way as the public?
The club, up to this point, has done a really good job of keeping its intentions under wraps.
Based on recent mock drafts, betting odds, online discourse, the direction the White Sox go at number one remains a complete toss-up.
Mock drafts.
Baseball America went with Rock Chalowski in their final mock.
ESPN's Jesse Rogers, Kyley McDaniel, they made the same prediction, Rock Chalowski.
Here's what Kyley McDaniel wrote: "I think the tiebreaker has and will continue to be proximity risk that leans Chalowski over Emerson."
Keith Law of The Athletic still has the White Sox selecting Emerson.
He acknowledged that there appears to be a shift this week, though, saying the White Sox are more engaged with Chalowski.
MLB Pipeline has kept it very fifty-fifty.
Jim Callis recently said he leans towards Emerson if the pick is made strictly off scouting perspective.
And frankly, the sports books don't seem to know any better.
FanDuel had Chalowski as the favorite at minus one forty, while DraftKings had Emerson as the favorite at plus one ten.
Those DraftKing odds have shifted significantly from Friday afternoon to Friday night, putting Chalowski as the new favorite at minus one forty-five.
Discrepancy between Vegas sports books like this probably illustrates how difficult this has been to predict, and there could be a few reasons for that.
As Jim Callis explained on Moeling Hon six seventy The Score this week, the White Sox benefit from keeping their intentions as private as possible.
So part of the reason people might not have information on what the White Sox are doing is because the White Sox want it that way.
By keeping their preferred player to themselves, emphasizing the signing bonus demands of both players, and even throwing Georgia Tech catcher Vaughn Lackey out there as a possible contingency plan, the White Sox are maximizing their negotiating leverage.
Whoever they select is going to get a record-signing Bonus.
It's going to be over the $9.25 million record, but even if they save half a million dollars in negotiations, that could have a significant impact on the rest of the draft class and who they're able to get in later rounds.
Of course, if we take everything at face value, though, the other possibility is that the White Sox just haven't made up their mind.
It makes sense that not everyone in the room evaluates the two players the same way, and it's possible the White Sox are still weighing the merits of Chalowski and Emerson.
That, too, aligns with mixed signals.
The White Sox can't tip their hand if they don't yet have a hand to tip, and the signing bonus demands of both players could swing the White Sox one way or another.
Whether se- the secrecy is strategic or simple, or simply the product of an ongoing internal debate, one thing is clear: very few people know what the White Sox are going to do, and that's exactly what Chris Getz would prefer until the pick is made.
Now, with all of this in mind, I will remain steadfast in my belief that Rok Chalowski will be the pick for the White Sox on Saturday, and I think too many fans are getting caught up in the word salad, confusing Chalowski's ceiling.
Just because Emerson is viewed as the high-ceiling player doesn't mean that Chalowski lacks potential to be a perennial all-star or an MVP candidate.
This is a clear future MLB shortstop with plus glove, plus power, more walks than strikeouts during his college career in two seasons, and the ability to drive the ball to all fields.
Emerson, yes, bats from the left side, has more speed.
Proper development could certainly be more advanced than Chalowski within the three years of age gap that you have here.
But based on what the White Sox appear to value, I still think Chalowski is their guy.
He's handled that pressure of being the top-rated prospect for over a year.
He's the son of an MLB scout with the right makeup.
He appears to be, the more certain bet to become a high-quality big leaguer, which is not insignificant for a front office trying to supplement their promising core.
Even if Emerson goes on to have a more prolific career than Chalowski, I don't think the White Sox will regret their choice.
A quote from Mike Shirley reinforces this, where he says, "We're not looking for a savior.
We're looking for another great piece to the puzzle."
And maybe I'm taking his words too literally, but to me, that implies Chalowski, the safer bet, the higher floor, the future all-star, who might not have that future MVP face of a franchise ceiling, but you know what you're getting, and that is a reliable thing that's really hard to quantify for a team at first overall.
Either way, I can say with confidence that who the White Sox pick, whoever Rob Manfred announces on Saturday, will be who the White Sox believe is the best player.
Despite all the recent discussions about signing bonus demands, early indications from Chris Getz were that the White Sox weren't going to overthink this thing.
That's still true today.
They intend to take the best player available, and since Chicago has indicated that Getz will ultimately be the person making the decision, I don't really expect finances to be a determining factor.
So have your preference, place your bets, but understand that the White Sox can't really go wrong.
Rok Chalowski or Grady Emerson joining the organization gives the White Sox one of the best shortstop prospects in the sport in their farm system.
MLB draft coverage, the draft will begin at noon, Central Time, on Saturday, with the first ten picks being covered on Peacock.
I think it'll be Rok Chalowski, some think it will be Grady Emerson, but the White Sox are going to get a great player, and they have a really difficult decision in front of them.
