Yahoo

Should Carbon Storage Approval Require Action From Inpex (TSE:1605) Investors?

  • Inpex completed a share buyback between 7 August and 30 September 2026, repurchasing 12,638,100 shares (1.09% of its stock) for ¥48,910.18 million. This occurred alongside an Australian regulatory approval that confirms a Bonaparte Basin formation as suitable for offshore carbon dioxide storage.

  • This pairing of a sizeable capital return and a formal step forward for the Bonaparte CCS Project highlights how Inpex is simultaneously tightening its equity base and pursuing lower emission options for the Ichthys LNG value chain.

  • The next step is to assess how Inpex's investment narrative could shift as the Bonaparte CCS milestone feeds into its long term decarbonization plan.

Scan how Inpex's latest buyback and CCS progress compares with other capital disciplined, lower emissions focused energy plays by reviewing the curated 23 resilient stocks with low risk scores .

Inpex Investment Narrative Recap

To own Inpex, you need to be comfortable with a large LNG and oil producer that is leaning into long life projects while trying to cut the carbon intensity of its Ichthys value chain. The Bonaparte CCS designation supports that decarbonization story. The completed ¥48,910.18 million buyback tightens the equity base but does not radically change near term operations.

In the short term, the key swing factor remains execution on big LNG projects such as the Ichthys expansion and Abadi, where delays or cost overruns could pressure earnings that analysts already expect to decline. The biggest risk is that LNG demand or pricing weakens faster than expected, while low carbon ventures such as CCS, hydrogen and ammonia take longer to scale.

The recent completion of the buyback program, with 12,638,100 shares retired, ties directly into one of the clearer near term levers for Inpex. Fewer shares can amplify earnings per share over time if operating performance holds up. This matters in a setup where analysts see limited revenue growth and falling profits over the next three years.

However, the buyback does not remove the heavier operational questions. Large scale LNG developments still carry execution and cost risk, and CCS projects such as Bonaparte remain capital intensive with uncertain long term returns. For you as a shareholder, the combination of ongoing capital returns and disciplined project delivery remains the central catalyst to watch.

Inpex's current analyst narrative points to revenues of ¥2,226.5b and earnings of ¥432.7b by 2029, based on 4.1% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about ¥55.7b from the ¥377.0b earned today.

Uncover how Inpex's fair value indicates a 17% potential upside to its current price before the market closes that gap.

TSE:1605 1-Year Stock Price Chart
TSE:1605 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest Inpex analysts focus on Australia risk instead of upside from projects like Bonaparte CCS. They were modelling revenues around ¥1,616.8b and earnings near ¥297.9b by 2029, well below consensus. Those views were set before the buyback completion and storage approval, so readers can judge whether that pessimism still fits.

Explore 2 other Inpex fair value estimates , including one that suggests as much as 18% downside from the current price.

Decide For Yourself

Don't just follow the ticker; dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Inpex?

Once you have formed a view on Inpex, it can help to compare that thesis with other companies that share similar qualities or offer a different risk and reward profile.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include 1605.T .

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Mobilize your Website
View Site in Mobile | Classic
Share by: