Provaris Energy Ltd (ASX:PV1, OTC:GBBLF, FRA:WS90) has received a modest valuation upgrade from RaaS Research, with the analyst lifting its base-case net asset value (NAV) to $0.14 per share as progress across the company's compressed hydrogen and liquid CO2 (LCO2) technology programs moves toward key approval and testing milestones in the remainder of 2026.
RaaS now places Provaris' NAV in a $0.10-$0.16 per share range, compared with its previous $0.09-$0.16 range, with the midpoint rising from $0.13 to $0.14.
The upgrade primarily reflects faster progress in the LCO2 commercialisation pathway, which RaaS said was sufficient to introduce a specific risked valuation for that business into its model for the first time.
RaaS upgrades valuation as LCO2 gains weight
RaaS has assigned a risked value of $25-$50 million to Provaris' LCO2 business, with a midpoint of $35 million, based on progress through front-end engineering and design (FEED), the pending General Approval for Ship Application (GASA) process and an expansion in potential commercial uses.
Compressed hydrogen remains the more advanced commercial opportunity and has been assigned a risked value of $37-$52 million, while RaaS values Provaris' underlying tank technology intellectual property at between $57 million and $115 million.
Together with net cash and corporate adjustments, this produces an undiluted equity valuation of $114-$212 million, equivalent to $0.10-$0.18 per share. On a diluted basis, RaaS' valuation is $0.09-$0.16 per share.
RaaS noted that Provaris' August 7 closing price of $0.007 represented a substantial discount to its assessed NAV range.
2026 delivery program moves into focus
The research house said the market was increasingly focused on tangible delivery, particularly technology approvals and greater definition of the company's commercial models.
Key targets for the remainder of 2026 include completing the LCO2 tank design review ahead of Approval in Principle (AiP) and GASA processes, finishing technical FEED studies, progressing a shareholder agreement with Yinson on LCO2 commercialisation, completing and testing the hydrogen prototype and advancing Nordic hydrogen supply-chain and shipping agreements.
RaaS said completion of Class Approvals for both storage technologies would represent a major de-risking event, with the underlying business cases progressing through validation toward potential final investment decisions.
LCO2 project expands commercial potential
Provaris' LCO2 development with Yinson is progressing through FEED Stage 2, with the commercial concept expanding beyond the original Floating Storage and Injection Unit application to include LCO2 carriers and floating storage terminals.
The joint venture has completed the detailed engineering package for the LCO2 tank, with DNV reviewing the design as it progresses toward AiP and ultimately GASA certification.
RaaS said the DNV design review was expected to be completed during August, alongside testing of materials and welding procedures intended to validate strength and fatigue assumptions used in the design. Yinson is funding the FEED program and had spent about $2 million at the time of the report.
Studies are also continuing with Himile Heavy Equipment Co Ltd to assess fabrication feasibility and preliminary costs for producing LCO2 tanks at its Rushan facilities.
Hydrogen prototype approaches testing
On the compressed hydrogen side, Provaris had substantially completed 1 cylinder and 1 end cap for its prototype tank, with fabrication targeted for completion during the September quarter.
Testing is expected to follow fabrication and will form part of the pathway toward Class Approval.
RaaS said Class Approval testing was expected to involve repeated pressure cycling designed to demonstrate a safety factor equivalent to about 10 times normal operating life, potentially requiring around 25,000 cycles.
Commercial work is also advancing. K-Line representatives completed a second site visit, with discussions covering supply-chain economics, financing, vessel construction and ownership structures for Provaris' H2Neo carriers.
Provaris, K-Line and Norwegian Hydrogen entered a cooperation agreement in May to develop a shipping solution for the FjordH2 Export Project in Norway.
Highlights
Provaris finished the June quarter with about $1.05 million in cash and no reported debt, following a $1 million equity placement and repayment of $186,000 associated with expiring Macquarie Bank convertible bonds.
RaaS said continued engagement from major shipping groups and progress toward Class Approval remained central to the investment case, although hydrogen FID remains dependent on Norwegian Hydrogen securing its Statnett power allocation.
Next steps
Near-term milestones to watch include:
-
completion of the DNV review of the LCO2 tank design and advancement toward AiP and GASA;
-
completion of LCO2 material, welding and fabrication testing;
-
completion and testing of the compressed hydrogen prototype;
-
progress toward Class Approval for both tank technologies;
-
further definition of the LCO2 revenue and commercialisation model with Yinson; and
-
advancement of Nordic hydrogen supply-chain projects and shipping agreements.
RaaS expects Provaris' economic opportunity to become clearer as these 2026 milestones are delivered, with Class Approval underpinning the commercial case for both hydrogen and LCO2 transport solutions.
