Investing.com-- Guggenheim named Zura Bio a top pick in the biotechnology sector, reiterating its Buy rating and $20 price target ahead of the company's Phase II TibuSHIELD readout in hidradenitis suppurativa, expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Analysts said the 16-week topline results for tibulizumab, an IL-17A x BAFF bispecific antibody, represent a key catalyst for the stock. Guggenheim argues that hidradenitis suppurativa treatment has reached an efficacy ceiling, with newer drugs such as sonelokimab and abdakibart struggling to exceed roughly 15-20% placebo-adjusted HiSCR75 response rates.
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Guggenheim calls tibulizumab the most advanced bispecific in hidradenitis suppurativa because it blocks both IL-17A on the T-cell side and BAFF on the B-cell side in a single molecule. The firm expects this dual mechanism could deliver broader control across moderate-to-severe Hurley stages, including late-stage disease.
Guggenheim describes buy-side expectations as "moderately low" and sees limited downside beyond the binary readout, because ZURA also has an SSc Phase II readout in 1H27, a planned PMR study and earlier pipeline assets. Its $20 target comes from a sum-of-the-parts model, with about $12 per share from HS, $7 from SSc and $1 from the pipeline. It uses a 10% discount rate and no terminal value, and models roughly $1.6B in peak HS sales.
The brokerage outlines three scenarios for TibuSHIELD measured by placebo-adjusted HiSCR75. The upside case, assigned 25% probability, assumes a result above 20% and implies a stock price near $15. The base case, with 40% probability, assumes 15-20% and implies $8-10. The bear case, with 35% probability, assumes a non-significant result or new adverse events and implies $2.50-3.00.
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Original Article
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