This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
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Adjusted Net Earnings:$72 million, or $0.37 per share, in Q3 2026.
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Net Earnings Adjustments:$10 million deferred income tax adjustments; $7 million reclamation provision revaluation recovery.
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Gold Sales:Over 74,000 ounces sold in Q3.
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Copper Sales:13.2 million pounds sold in Q3.
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Molybdenum Sales:Approximately 4.6 million pounds sold at Langeloth in Q3.
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Average Realized Gold Price:$3,483 per ounce (incorporates Mount Milligan streaming arrangements).
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Average Realized Copper Price:$5.74 per pound.
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Average Realized Molybdenum Price:$33.43 per pound.
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Consolidated All-In Sustaining Costs (byproduct):$1,775 per ounce in Q3; full-year guidance of $1,650$1,750 per ounce.
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Mount Milligan Gold Production:Over 44,000 ounces in Q3, up 15% quarter-over-quarter; full-year guidance of 140,000155,000 ounces.
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Mount Milligan Copper Production:12.8 million pounds in Q3; full-year guidance of 5060 million pounds.
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Mount Milligan AISC (byproduct):$985 per ounce in Q3, down 22% quarter-over-quarter; full-year ASIC guidance lowered to $1,100$1,200 per ounce (from $1,200$1,300); gold production cost guidance reaffirmed at $1,450$1,550 per ounce.
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Oksut Gold Production:Over 31,000 ounces in Q3; full-year guidance of 120,000135,000 ounces.
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Oksut AISC (byproduct):$1,893 per ounce in Q3; full-year guidance of $1,850$1,950 per ounce.
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Cash Flow from Operations:$143 million in Q3.
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Free Cash Flow:$17 million in Q3.
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Mount Milligan Cash Flow:$107 million from operations and $63 million free cash flow in Q3.
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Oksut Cash Flow:$68 million from operations and $66 million free cash flow in Q3.
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US Molybdenum Cash Flow:$2.9 million from operations; free cash flow deficit of $54 million, mainly due to Thompson Creek restart spending.
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Share Buybacks:Record $53 million in Q3 (2.6 million shares); year-to-date total of $125 million.
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Dividend:Quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share declared.
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Liquidity:$998 million total, comprising $398 million cash and $600 million available under the corporate credit facility.
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Thompson Creek Non-Sustaining CapEx:$81 million in Q3; $337 million year-to-date; total CapEx estimate of $425$450 million; first production on track for mid-2027.
Release Date: October 30, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
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Mount Milligan delivered a fourth consecutive quarter on plan and remains on track to achieve 2026 production guidance.
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Strong copper by-product credits enabled Centerra Gold Inc ( NYSE:CGAU ) to lower Mount Milligan's full-year all-in sustaining cost guidance to $1,100-$1,200 per ounce from $1,200-$1,300 per ounce.
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Centerra Gold Inc ( NYSE:CGAU ) completed a record $53 million in share buybacks in Q3, bringing year-to-date total to $125 million, demonstrating commitment to shareholder returns.
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The Goldfield project achieved a key permitting milestone with all major permits in place for the Goldfield deposit, which accounts for ~80% of life-of-mine production.
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Thompson Creek restart remains on track for first molybdenum production in mid-2027, with 75% of infrastructure refurbishment complete as of late October and molybdenum prices trending well above feasibility study assumptions.
Negative Points
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Centerra Gold Inc ( NYSE:CGAU ) faces industry-wide cost pressures, with Mount Milligan absolute costs tracking about 5% higher than budget due to labor inflation, diesel, and other factors.
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The Turkish operation (Oksut) faces net inflation of 5-10% in US dollar terms, which could pressure costs going forward.
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Molybdenum price exposure cannot be hedged, leaving Centerra Gold Inc ( NYSE:CGAU ) fully exposed to spot price volatility for its Thompson Creek and Langeloth operations.
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US Moly generated a free cash flow deficit of $54 million in Q3, mainly due to spending on the Thompson Creek restart project.
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Centerra Gold Inc ( NYSE:CGAU )'s cash balance declined by approximately $50 million in the quarter due to growth investments and share buybacks, and the company plans to hold only $100-$200 million in cash, which may limit financial flexibility.
Q & A Highlights
Q: With Thompson Creek infrastructure refurbishment roughly 65% complete at quarter-end, what are the critical path items to first production? A: CEO Paul Tomory said progress reached about 75% by late October, with the team now into final structural, mechanical and electrical work. The last electrical switchgear has arrived, and the focus is on final installations, connections, powering up and commissioning, with early commissioning works expected to begin late in Q1 2027.
Q: Given strong molybdenum prices, can Centerra lock in pricing on a portion of initial Thompson Creek production to protect early cash flows? A: CEO Paul Tomory said no, as there is no real forward or hedging market for molybdenum. Most contracts are effectively priced off spot, so the company carries spot exposure on the commodity.
Q: How should investors think about minimum cash balances through the remaining construction period, and how could that influence the pace of buybacks? A: CFO Ryan Snyder said Centerra does not need to hold $400 million to $500 million in cash and is comfortable deploying it into project development and share buybacks. He said the company would like to hold roughly $100 million to $200 million for operational movements, with the credit facility available if needed. CEO Paul Tomory framed capital allocation around growing NAV per share through project development while reducing the share count via buybacks.
Q: How should CapEx at Thompson Creek be allocated over the remaining development quarters? A: CFO Ryan Snyder said project-to-date spending is a little under $340 million against a total estimate of $425 million to $450 million. He expects spending to be allocated fairly evenly between now and mid-2027, when first production is expected, with Q3 having been the high-water mark due to the mill refurbishment push.
Q: What has structurally improved at Mount Milligan after four consecutive quarters on plan, and how confident are you in sustaining that consistency? A: CEO Paul Tomory credited two factors: a better technical understanding of the ore body, built through significant infill drilling and an extensive grade control RC drilling program, and major investment in human capital, including a world-class general manager and new COO Kelly Strong. He said this combination gives much greater confidence in forecasting, planning and delivering at the mine.
Q: Is Centerra confident it will land within the $425 million to $450 million Thompson Creek cost estimate? A: CFO Ryan Snyder confirmed the $337 million spent to date is measured against that range and said he feels good about staying within it. All key equipment is already on site, limiting exposure to procurement-driven cost inflation, with remaining work focused on mill assembly, connections and stripping.
Q: Where does a potential US Moly IPO or separation stand, and would it happen before or after Thompson Creek reaches commercial production? A: CEO Paul Tomory said the priority is delivering the mine, while noting the molybdenum market is extremely constructive on supply constraints and demand from pipelines, energy, defense and aerospace. Centerra continues internal preparations for an IPO or other separation event but is in no hurry, believing there is more value yet to be recognized in its valuation.
Q: How is cost inflation trending in Turkey, and what is a reasonable expectation for 2027? A: CFO Ryan Snyder said Centerra plans Turkish operations on a net basis, with high inflation partly offset by lira devaluation. The company budgeted 5% to 10% net inflation for 2026 and is tracking roughly in that range, with a similar view prevailing for 2027.
Q: How is Mount Milligan tracking versus budget on costs, and what does that imply for 2027? A: CFO Ryan Snyder said absolute costs are up about 5%, driven by BC labor inflation, diesel, camp costs, freight, dewatering and liners, but strong copper and silver credits plus solid production have offset this. He said a modest amount of inflation is expected in 2027, with roughly 5% a reasonable planning assumption, though budgeting is still early.
Q: Is the expected one-to-three-year mine life extension at Oksut still valid, and where in that range do you expect to land? A: CEO Paul Tomory confirmed the company is landing in that range, closer to the midpoint, based on better leaching parameters, recoveries and grades, plus inclusion of a lower-grade oxide halo in the pit. Results are expected in February alongside year-end disclosures, and further exploration drilling could support additional extensions beyond this first step.
Q: Is the increased Langeloth EBITDA guidance a good run rate going forward? A: CFO Ryan Snyder said Langeloth is expected to be EBITDA positive on a go-forward basis now that operations have normalized. Q3 was outsized because molybdenum prices ran up while inventories built earlier in the year at lower prices were sold, so future quarters will likely be somewhat lower than Q3.
Q: Will Langeloth need to be taken offline as Thompson Creek ramps up in the second half of 2027? A: EVP Strategy & Corporate Development Helene Timpano said the plan is to feather in Thompson Creek concentrate in a measured way during the 2027 ramp-up year, while continuing to rely on third-party concentrate. She noted the facility has 40 million pounds of capacity but will not necessarily run at that rate, and a planned maintenance outage in the first part of next year will refresh the asset ahead of ramp-up.
Q: How does the surprise Turkish tax cut affect Oksut? A: CFO Ryan Snyder said the Turkish government cut the tax rate from 25% to 12.5% starting in 2027 for manufacturing companies, which includes mining. Centerra understands this applies to Oksut, meaning income tax will step down next year and every ounce produced, including from exploration success, becomes more valuable.
Q: With new management in place, are there new initiatives across the portfolio or is it business as usual? A: CEO Paul Tomory said the principal focus is delivering value from the company's significant metal inventory relative to its enterprise value. COO Kelly Strong said his role is to sustain momentum, augment operations with his experience at sites like Mount Milligan and Oksut, and
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
