Wall Street is increasingly questioning whether the artificial intelligence boom has gotten ahead of itself. But as investors debate whether AI will deliver an economic revolution or another painful market correction, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan sees an unlikely winner in either scenario: Bitcoin.
In a new interview with Coinage at The Tie's latest conference, Hougan argued that Bitcoin could benefit from three vastly different economic outcomes, ranging from an AI-driven productivity boom to a financial crisis that forces the Federal Reserve to intervene.
"There are really three things that can happen in AI, right? We get super abundance and we live in an economic Paradise. We muddle along like we have been for the past few years, or there's an AI bubble and we enter dot-com style pullback," he said, noting that Bitcoin has performed well in the first two paradigms so far.
"In the muddle along scenario, you have what we have right now, which is wealth managers adopting Bitcoin, institutions moving towards Bitcoin, fiat debasement continuing — that's a pretty good outlook for Bitcoin," Hougan said. "And in the dot-com crash scenario, we get Fed bailouts. That's good for crypto as well, so I think people are worried about [AI] but regardless of which path you go on, sort of all those roads lead to Bitcoin doing well."
Read More from Coinage :
His optimism comes at a particularly challenging moment for crypto investors, as the market continues to weigh the overhang of the record $6 billion hack on Binance. That, coupled with the volatility of the midterm elections, is making for another period of weakness.
But Hougan argued that the midterms don't matter as much as the presidential election cycle.
"he election that matters is 2028, not 2026, because we have two more years, at least of an extraordinarily pro-crypto SEC," he said. "My view is that crypto is going to make enough strides in the next 27 months that it won't be able to be undone regardless of what happens in 2028."
Prediction markets are currently pointing to expected outcomes of Democrats taking back control of the House and the Senate. Control of the latter may come down to some tight races in states once thought to be deep-red battlegrounds. For example, Democrat challenger James Talarico going up against Republican Ken Paxton in Texas is currently favorited to win on Kalshi by about a 72% to 28% split .
Without AI or midterms holding Bitcoin back, in Hougan's view, it could be a strong end to 2026.
"Broadly, I think we're out of the woods," he said. "I do think the bottom is in and that we're ultimately going higher."
Subscribe to the free Coinage newsletter to stay up-to-date on all things crypto and finance .
