4DMedical has seen very strong share price gains in recent years, which naturally raises a question for you as an investor: Is the current A$3.84 price properly supported by the cash flows that the business can generate over time?
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Over the past 3 years the stock has returned about 7x, which puts a lot of weight on whether the underlying cash flows can keep up with the optimism in the share price.
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The business model depends on turning its respiratory imaging technology into recurring usage and service revenue, which can affect both the timing and durability of future cash flows that feed into any intrinsic value estimate.
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What if you looked at 4DMedical through its book value instead? See why 4DMedical's 13.6x P/B tells a different valuation story .
For investors, the debate is whether the cash flows implied by 4DMedical's current operations and pipeline are strong and reliable enough to justify today's market valuation.
If you want to test the same cash flow question beyond 4DMedical, compare it with companies in the 7 healthcare AI stocks .
Is 4DMedical Still Cheap on Cash Flow?
The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model presented here depends on 4DMedical moving from cash burn to consistently positive free cash generation. The latest twelve-month Free Cash Flow is a loss of A$33.36m, and the projections assume that this outgoing cash gradually reverses and turns into growing inflows over the next decade as the imaging platform scales.
Those forecasts move from several more years of negative Free Cash Flow to positive A$44.1m by 2029 and then rising further, which reflects a confident view on adoption, pricing and operating leverage. On these assumptions, the DCF output indicates an intrinsic value that is modestly above the current A$3.84 share price. As a result, the overall case rests on whether 4DMedical can deliver the ramp in cash inflows implied in those projections. Find out what 4DMedical could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate .
The 4DMedical Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?
Narratives pick up where that 4DMedical valuation puzzle leaves off by spelling out what would need to happen to growth, margins and earnings for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today, and they sit on Simply Wall St's Community page. Instead of a single output from a ratio or model, Narratives unpack the future path that number rests on so you can watch how 4DMedical's actual progress compares with those built-in expectations.
Community views on 4DMedical pull in opposite directions, with one side leaning into the runway story and the other focused on execution risk.
Bull case: 65% undervalued
"ProForma cash position is now over $200 Million dollars on balance sheet for 4DMedical, giving them runway cash for a long time and ability to market and scale with more budget..."
Discover why this Narrative puts 4DMedical at 65% undervalued .
Bear case: 28% overvalued
"Although CT:VQ is positioned as a non contrast replacement for roughly 1 million US nuclear V/Q scans with very high gross margins, ongoing modest revenue and continued losses indicate that failure to convert this addressable market into paid scan volumes could leave revenue and earnings well below what high level market sizing implies..."
Explore why this Narrative puts 4DMedical at 28% overvalued .
The unanswered question for 4DMedical: who is steering the ship and on what terms?
Cash flow models only tell part of the story, because the real drivers are the people setting priorities, taking risks and getting rewarded for the outcomes they choose to pursue. See who runs 4DMedical and how they are paid .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include 4DX.AX .
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