Find your next quality investment with Simply Wall St's easy and powerful screener, trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.
American States Water (AWR) is back on investors' radar after highlighting its dividend track record and expectations for 2026 earnings growth. This is prompting a closer look at how its payout and profitability metrics line up today.
See our latest analysis for American States Water.
At a share price of $84.51, American States Water has a 30 day share price return of 8.67% and a year to date share price return of 16.95%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 14.78% and 5 year total shareholder return of 9.54% indicate momentum that has been building rather than fading.
If this kind of steady compound story appeals to you, it could be worth widening your research to other companies using our screener for solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (47 results) .
After an 8.67% gain in 30 days and a year to date return of 16.95%, American States Water now sits closer to analyst targets and an estimated intrinsic value. Does the current price still offer a compelling risk reward trade off for new buyers?
Most Popular Narrative: 11.2% Overvalued
American States Water is trading at $84.51 compared with a widely followed narrative fair value of $76.00, so the current price sits ahead of that framework.
Robust infrastructure investment, with $170 to $210 million targeted for 2025 and rate base growth authorized by recent CPUC rate case decisions, positions the company to earn higher returns on a growing asset base, contributing to long-term increases in both revenue and potential net margins.
Curious what kind of revenue growth path and margin expansion sit behind that $76.00 fair value and the long term earnings profile implied here? The most followed narrative lays out a detailed roadmap for customer additions, infrastructure spending, and profitability that goes well beyond the headline dividend story.
Result: Fair Value of $76 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this American States Water narrative still leans on assumptions that could shift if California-focused regulation tightens margins or if rising supply and wildfire costs outpace approved rate recovery.
Find out about the key risks to this American States Water narrative.
Another View on American States Water Valuation
While the narrative fair value for American States Water sits at $76.00 and points to the stock being 11.2% overvalued, our DCF model suggests a different picture, with a future cash flow value of $101.84, or about 17% above the current $84.51 share price. Which scenario lines up more closely with your own expectations for earnings and cash flow?
Our DCF model leans heavily on long term cash generation rather than near term earnings multiples. As a result, it can present a very different view of valuation risk and opportunity compared with analyst targets. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day ( check out American States Water for example ). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 45 high quality undervalued stocks . If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With mixed signals on American States Water from different valuation models, sentiment is understandably split, so it makes sense to review the details and move quickly to form your own view using the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs .
Looking for more investment ideas beyond American States Water?
If American States Water has you thinking more broadly about your portfolio, do not stop here. Use the screener to size up new opportunities before others move first.
-
Target resilient income by reviewing companies featured in the 9 dividend fortresses and see which payouts look more dependable for your goals.
-
Hunt for potential value opportunities using the screener containing 19 high quality undiscovered gems and compare their fundamentals with what you see at American States Water.
-
Prioritize capital preservation by scanning the 78 resilient stocks with low risk scores and weigh those lower risk profiles against your current holdings.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AWR .
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
