Shareholders of Aperam S.A.( AMS:APAM ) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to €45.38 following its latest first-quarter results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of €1.6b coming in 4.8% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of €0.13, in line with analyst appraisals. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Aperam from ten analysts is for revenues of €6.65b in 2026. If met, it would imply a notable 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 343% to €1.84. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €6.70b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.05 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Aperam
The consensus price target held steady at €44.57, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Aperam, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €65.00 and the most bearish at €30.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Aperam's past performance and to peers in the same industry . It's clear from the latest estimates that Aperam's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aperam is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Aperam. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aperam going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here. .
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Aperam (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
