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Tubi's new ad tools and content tie-ups put Fox in focus
Fox (FOXA) is back in the spotlight after its streaming platform Tubi announced new ad formats, measurement tools, and programming partnerships with Apple TV and TikTok at IAB NewFronts in New York.
See our latest analysis for Fox.
Despite the excitement around Tubi's product and partnership announcements, Fox's recent share price performance has been mixed. The 1-day share price return is 1.16% and the 90-day share price return reflects a 22.09% decline, while its 1-year total shareholder return sits at 23.31% and the 5-year total shareholder return at 69.02%. This points to stronger long term results than recent trading suggests.
If this kind of streaming and media activity has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with 20 top founder-led companies
With Fox shares down about 20% year to date but showing strong multi year total returns and trading below both one valuation estimate and the average analyst price target, is this a reset worth watching, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 17% Undervalued
With Fox last closing at $59.30 against a narrative fair value of $71.47, the current share price sits well below that modeled outcome and puts extra weight on the assumptions behind it.
Analysts expect earnings to reach $2.0 billion (and earnings per share of $5.75) by about March 2029, up from $1.9 billion today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $1.6 billion.
Want to see what keeps that earnings line moving up in the model? The key ingredients blend modest revenue growth, steady margins, and a higher future earnings multiple. Curious which of those assumptions does the heavy lifting for Fox's fair value?
Result: Fair Value of $71.47 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still clear pressure points, including potential NFL rights cost inflation and ongoing shifts away from traditional TV that could challenge this valuation story.
Find out about the key risks to this Fox narrative.
Next Steps
Reading this, do you think the balance of risks and rewards feels compelling enough for Fox, or does it raise more questions for you? Take a closer look at the data, weigh both sides quickly, and ground your own view with 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include FOXA .
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