Investing.com -- Is the backlash against soccer star Kylian Mbappé a real threat to On Holding AG's (NYSE: ONON) growth in China, or is it too early to draw a link between the controversy and the Swiss sportswear brand's business?
Shares of On Holding fell 3.6% on Tuesday as Mbappé faced a backlash among Chinese consumers over remarks referencing a "Chinese dictator" in connection with a meme featuring Mao Zedong. Stifel analyst Peter McGoldrick reaffirmed a Buy rating and $41 price target on the stock, leaving his Asia-Pacific revenue and profitability estimates unchanged.
The immediate financial risk appears limited, at least for now. McGoldrick estimates that China accounts for roughly 10% of On's revenue in calendar 2026, while the broader Asia-Pacific region represents approximately 21%. A hypothetical 10% decline in Chinese sales would therefore translate into roughly a 1% hit to consolidated revenue before any offsets.
The bigger question is whether the controversy becomes associated with On itself.
"Meaningfully, On has yet to commercialize product around football and the nascent relationship with Mbappé may not have yet created an association with Chinese consumers and the On brand," McGoldrick wrote.
On named Mbappé a global ambassador on Sept. 18, positioning the French forward as the centerpiece of its entry into soccer. The partnership is intended to support the development of football footwear and apparel, but the company has yet to commercialize products around the sport.
That could limit the immediate damage. If Chinese consumers do not strongly associate Mbappé with On, the controversy may have little lasting effect on the brand's sales or marketing effectiveness. However, the partnership also leaves On exposed if the association strengthens as its soccer business develops.
"This matters for ONON, as the Swiss athletic brand announced Mbappé as the centerpiece of their soccer entry in September and named him a global ambassador," McGoldrick wrote. He said Stifel would leave its APAC estimates unchanged while monitoring On-specific sentiment and platform activity.
The backlash has already prompted corporate responses in China. Three brands — beverage maker Dongpeng, dairy producer Mengniu and cheese producer Milkground — reportedly ended their sponsorship agreements with Mbappé. Content featuring the footballer was also removed from the official Weibo accounts of Western brands including Dior and Hublot, according to reports.
Mbappé subsequently said he had "deep respect for the Chinese people" and apologized to "everyone my words have upset."
The risk for On is that Chinese consumers and digital platforms begin treating the company as part of the controversy, potentially undermining its marketing efforts or forcing a change in strategy in the region.
"The new concern is that Chinese consumers and platforms could associate On with the controversy, reducing marketing effectiveness, or causing a change to marketing strategy in the Chinese market," McGoldrick wrote.
Previous China boycotts show the potential downside
Stifel's historical comparisons suggest the consequences could extend well beyond an initial share-price reaction if consumer opposition persists.
H&M saw China sales fall 23% year-over-year in the quarter ended May 2021 following the Xinjiang cotton controversy, while its Tmall store remained unavailable for approximately 16 months. Adidas reported Greater China revenue declines of 16% and 15% year-over-year in the second and third quarters of 2021, respectively, during the same broader period of consumer backlash.
More recently, Lululemon cut its 2026 Mainland China revenue growth outlook to the high-single digits from approximately 20% following backlash related to the use of a Japanese drum at a Great Wall yoga event in June 2026, according to Stifel.
Those cases demonstrate how quickly a brand controversy can become a commercial problem in China — and how long the consequences can last. They do not, however, establish that On will face a comparable outcome.
For now, Stifel is not baking any damage into its forecasts. The key indicators to watch will be whether Chinese social-media platforms begin targeting On, whether the company removes or changes Mbappé-related marketing, and whether consumer sentiment translates into weaker sales.
The distinction is important: On's exposure to China is meaningful, but the immediate revenue risk depends on whether the controversy spreads from Mbappé to the brand itself. With the soccer partnership still in its early stages, that association remains uncertain.
Original Article
Is the China risk real for On Holding after Mbappé backlash?
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