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Deutsche Bank, J.P. Morgan start Nordnet coverage with split growth views

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Investing.com -- Deutsche Bank initiated coverage of Nordic online brokerage and savings platform Nordnet with a "hold" rating and a SEK360 price target, while J.P. Morgan resumed coverage at "overweight" with a SEK401 target, highlighting a split view on whether the company's growth prospects justify its valuation.

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Deutsche Bank said Nordnet's shares, trading at about 20 times estimated 2027 earnings and roughly 30% above the peer average excluding Nordnet, already price in much of its growth. Its target values the stock at about 22 times estimated 2027 earnings per share of SEK17.

The broker forecasts annual EPS growth of about 15% over 2025-28, while noting Nordnet's 2025 operating margin of 76% and return on equity of 42% were the highest among its peers.

By comparison, Avanza had margins of 62% and ROE of 39%, with Deutsche Bank rating the rival "buy" and assigning a SEK440 target.

J.P. Morgan took a more positive view, raising its 2027-28 forecasts for brokerage, fund commissions and net interest income. Its net income estimates are now about 8% to 9% above company-compiled consensus.

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The broker expects double-digit customer growth in 2027 and 2028, with growth in Sweden accelerating despite Avanza onboarding nearly four times as many customers there.

J.P. Morgan forecasts EPS growth of about 14% annually over 2026-30, helped by increased cross-border trading and related foreign-exchange fees as younger Nordic investors reduce their home-market bias.

Its SEK401 target combines a discounted cash flow valuation of SEK446 with a sum-of-the-parts valuation of SEK355. It rates Avanza "neutral" with a SEK408 target, citing slower growth.

Estimates for Nordnet's third-quarter results also differ. Deutsche Bank expects transaction-related net income of SEK667 million, down 10% from the second quarter as trading activity eased in July and August amid quieter markets and fewer initial public offerings. It still forecasts net income of SEK927 million, up 29% year on year and 1% to 2% above consensus.

J.P. Morgan expects transaction income of SEK712 million and net profit of SEK947 million, about 4% above consensus.

Deutsche Bank sees longer-term potential from Nordnet's planned German launch in the second half of 2026 but expects higher execution risk and no material near-term earnings contribution. J.P. Morgan flags weaker macroeconomic conditions, tougher competition and lower interest rates as key risks.

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