Eli Lilly's updated fair value estimate has shifted from US$1,328.83 to US$1,397.02, giving investors a fresh reference point for where analysts currently anchor their price targets. This adjustment aligns with recent research focused on the strength of the obesity and diabetes portfolio, wide guidance ranges, and the balance between premium pricing and execution risk across GLP-1 and incretin therapies. As you read on, you will see how to track these moving targets and keep up with the evolving Eli Lilly narrative.
What Wall Street Has Been Saying
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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Several firms, including JPMorgan, RBC Capital, Goldman Sachs, Truist, UBS, Scotiabank, Freedom Broker, Argus and BMO Capital, have lifted Eli Lilly price targets into a US$1,500 to US$1,650 range after Q2 and Q3 results that they describe as beats with higher guidance tied to GLP 1 and incretin therapies.
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RBC Capital, UBS, Jefferies and Goldman Sachs highlight sizeable full year revenue guidance raises. UBS and Jefferies point to higher FY26 guidance ranges as analysts update models around Mounjaro and Zepbound volumes and international demand.
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Truist and Scotiabank point to what they describe as early stage obesity penetration and an expanding incretin franchise. Their research notes link this to long run growth potential in what some analysts call the diabesity segment.
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Berenberg and Leerink cite Eli Lilly returns on investment and obesity drug adoption as key supports for their positive stance. Guggenheim and HSBC reference prescription trends, pricing assumptions and formulary changes in their updated targets.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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HSBC maintains a Reduce rating despite raising its target to US$940, arguing that healthcare sector multiples are elevated and that stock selection risk remains high.
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Cantor Fitzgerald flags Eli Lilly premium 2027 valuation and what it describes as elevated consensus expectations, with pricing headwinds and execution on products like Zepbound and Foundayo cited as areas investors should watch closely.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We've flagged 2 risks for Eli Lilly. See which could impact your investment.
What's in the News
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Eli Lilly reported Q3 2026 revenue of US$24.4b, which was 39% higher year over year, and adjusted EPS of US$7.48, with management raising full year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of US$91b to US$92b.
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Topline Phase 3 TRANSCEND-T2D-2 data showed retatrutide reduced A1C by an average of 2.2% versus 1.8% for Ozempic 2 mg and delivered roughly double the weight loss in adults with type 2 diabetes over 80 weeks.
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Foundayo, Eli Lilly oral GLP 1, received a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency for obesity and type 2 diabetes, with early launch data indicating US$98m in Q2 2026 sales.
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The state of Pennsylvania filed a lawsuit against Eli Lilly, CVS Caremark and others, alleging insulin prices were raised by more than 1,000% through coordinated pricing practices and seeking damages, pricing reforms and restitution.
How This Changes the Fair Value For Eli Lilly
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The fair value estimate for Eli Lilly has moved from US$1,328.83 to US$1,397.02 based on updated model assumptions.
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The revenue growth assumption has shifted from 14.27% to 13.16%.
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The net profit margin assumption has adjusted from 42.11% to 44.00%.
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The future P/E multiple has changed from 28.79x to 27.74x.
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The discount rate remains at 7.24%.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives connect Eli Lilly's business story to the underlying forecasts and fair value estimates that analysts are using. They update automatically as new data, guidance and news are added.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Eli Lilly to stay up to date on:
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How incretin medicines such as Mounjaro, Zepbound and Foundayo, together with more than US$50b of manufacturing commitments, support forecasts for cardiometabolic revenue and margins.
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Why analysts are watching newer areas like Alzheimer's therapy with Kisunla, next generation incretin combinations like EloraTZP and non incretin portfolios in oncology, immunology and neuroscience.
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Key pressure points, including GLP 1 pricing trends in the U.S., hundreds of lawsuits around safety and labelling, and the impact of discontinued partnered oncology programs on future diversification.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include LLY .
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