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How Much Walmart’s 90-Day Slide Hit Top Consumer Staples ETFs

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  • FSTA and VDC each carry over 13% Walmart weight yet still gained roughly 9% year to date as broader holdings absorbed the drag.

  • Walmart slid 14% over 90 days on tariff headwinds and reiterated its guidance rather than raising it, yet still sits up 9% over the past year.

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The Walmart( NASDAQ:WMT ) pullback is the story consumer staples investors are talking about this summer, and it flows through Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF( NYSEARCA:FSTA ), Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund( NYSEARCA:XLP ), and Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund( NYSEARCA:VDC ) in surprisingly different ways. Walmart shares have fallen roughly 14% over the past 90 days, from about $130 on May 7 to about $112 on August 6. Zooming out, however, the picture changes: Walmart is up fractionally year to date, up 9% over the past year, and up 132% over five years. This looks like a drawdown inside a longer uptrend.

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Walmart's Q1 FY27 report reiterated guidance rather than raising it. The company delivered revenue of $177.8 billion, up 6.1% year over year, but flagged an approximately 700-basis-point headwind in Health & Wellness from Maximum Fair Pricing legislation and ongoing IEEPA tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading is 55.2, rebounding from June's multi-year low of 49.5. That is the macro to watch: the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) print and the monthly Census retail sales release are the two data feeds most likely to move staples over the next 12 months.

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FSTA: The Most Concentrated Walmart Exposure of the Three

FSTA tracks the MSCI USA IMI Consumer Staples 25/50 Index, which sweeps in small- and mid-caps alongside the giants. Its net expense ratio is 0.08%. That broader mandate has produced the heaviest Walmart weight in the group: Walmart is the top holding at 13.4% of net assets, worth about $190.0 million out of $1.4 billion in total net assets. Costco follows at 11.4%, so nearly 25% of FSTA lives in two big-box retailers. The fund is holding up (8.7% year to date) because Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and the tobacco names have offset Walmart's drag.

XLP: Narrower Index, Lighter Walmart Weight

XLP holds only the S&P 500 staples subset (about 38 names) and carries a net expense ratio of 0.09%. Walmart is still the top holding, but at a lower weight of 10.4%, followed by Costco at 9.0% and Coca-Cola at 7.2%. Because XLP has a smaller Walmart slice than FSTA despite being the more concentrated index, a single-name Walmart move actually transmits less on a percentage basis here. XLP is nearly flat on the week and up 9.6% year to date, roughly in line with peers.

VDC: Vanguard's Broad-Basket Staples Vehicle

VDC tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Consumer Staples 25/50 Index, structurally similar to FSTA. Its net expense ratio is 0.09%. Walmart is a top holding at 14.0%, or about $1.1 billion of the fund's net assets. VDC is also roughly flat on the week, up 1.1% on the month, and up 9.3% year to date. The tight clustering with FSTA and XLP year to date shows that even with different Walmart concentrations, diversification across roughly 100 staples names smooths out single-stock damage.

What to Watch Next

As mentioned, the macro signals to monitor are the next Census retail sales release and CPI print, given that June retail sales hit $768.6 billion, a 12-month high, and a rollover would confirm the sentiment weakness. The fund-specific signals are the next quarterly MSCI reviews for FSTA and VDC, and the S&P Dow Jones sector rebalance for XLP. If Walmart's slide continues into the next reconstitution, FSTA's 13.4% Walmart weight is the position with the most concentrated exposure to further downside, and the one with the most upside if the $137.98 analyst target price starts to come back into view.

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Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.

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